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Fuzzy Drought Control Considering Uncertainty in Long-term Forecast

Research Project

Project/Area Number 03452210
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Research Field Hydraulic engineering
Research InstitutionKYOTO UNIVERSITY

Principal Investigator

TAKASAO Takuma  Kyoto Univ., Faculty of Eng., Professor, 工学部, 教授 (30025895)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) TACHIKAWA Yasuto  Kyoto Univ., Faculty of Eng., Instructor, 工学部, 助手 (40227088)
HORI Tomoharu  Kyoto Univ., Faculty of Eng., Instructor, 工学部, 助手 (20190225)
SHIIBA Michiharu  Kyoto Univ., Faculty of Eng., Assoc.Professor, 工学部, 助教授 (90026352)
Project Period (FY) 1991 – 1993
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 1993)
Budget Amount *help
¥5,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,200,000)
Fiscal Year 1993: ¥900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 1992: ¥900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 1991: ¥3,400,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000)
KeywordsReservoir Control / Fuzzy Decision Making / Fuzzy Dynamic Programming / Drought / Long-term Forecast / Uncertainty / ファジイ理論 / ファジイシステム / ファジイ多段決定 / ファジ-理論 / ファジイDP / ファジイ回帰式 / 意思決定支援
Research Abstract

The complexity of real time reservoir control during a drought consists of the following two aspects :
1.Long-term rainfall and runoff prediction, which is key information for drought control, is not provided with high accuracy.
2.The control strategy of the reservoir is defined by target releases and target pondages, and these two criteria become occasionally become both objective functions and constraints of the programming formulation.
In full consideration of these points, a drought control system based on fuzzy decision making is developed in this study. The system developed herein is a mathematical model of current decision making process of drought control based on mutual consent among those concerned for drought control. The characteristics of the system can be summerized as follows :
1.The transition process of the state of the reservoir is modeled as both stochastic system and fuzzy system according to the type of inflow prediction.
2.the target release and the target pondage of the reservoir are expressed by fuzzy sets because the acceptable level of the change of these criteria depends much on human subjective views.
Moreover, the relationship between the accuracy of inflow prediction and that of decision criteria is analyzed by the use of the system.

Report

(4 results)
  • 1993 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 1992 Annual Research Report
  • 1991 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (11 results)

All Other

All Publications (11 results)

  • [Publications] 高棹琢馬: "渇水時貯水池操作における予測情報の精度と意思決定基準の精度との相互関係分析モデルの構築" 土木学会関西支部平成6年度年次学術講演会. (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1993 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 高棹琢馬: "ファジイシステムに対するファジイDPを用いた渇水時貯水池操作" 水文・水資源学会1993年研究発表会要旨集. 90-91 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1993 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 高棹琢馬: "ファジイDPを用いた渇水時貯水池操作" 土木学会第48回年次学術講演会. 318-319 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1993 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Takasao, T.: "Analyzes of the relation between accuracy of prediction and that of decision criteria in drought control" Proc.of annual Conf.of kasaibranch, JSCE. (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1993 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Takasao, T.: "Drought control by fuzzy DP for a fuzzy system" Proc.of annual Conf.of Japan Society of Hydrology and water resources21GE02 : 1994. 90-91

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1993 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Takasao, T.: "Reservoir Control of drought by fuzzy DP" Proc.of the 48th Conf.of JSCE. 318-319 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1993 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 高棹 琢馬: "渇水時貯水池操作における予測情報の精度と意思決定基準の精度との相互関係分析モデルの構築" 土木学会関西支部平成6年度年次学術講演会. (1994)

    • Related Report
      1993 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 高棹 琢馬: "ファジイシステムに対するファジイDPを用いた渇水時貯水池操作" 水文・水資源学会1993年研究発表会要旨集. 90-91 (1993)

    • Related Report
      1993 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 高棹 琢馬: "ファジイDPを用いた渇水時貯水池操作" 土木学会関西支部平成5年度年次学術講演会概要集. (1993)

    • Related Report
      1992 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 高棹 琢馬: "ファジイシステムに対するファジイ多段決定手法と渇水時貯水池操作" 土木学会第48回年次学術講演会講演概要集. (1993)

    • Related Report
      1992 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 高棹 琢馬: "渇水時の貯水池ファジー操作に関する基礎的検討" 土木学会水工学論文集. 37.

    • Related Report
      1991 Annual Research Report

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Published: 1991-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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