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Development of a fuzzy expert system for predicting the probable failure on mountain slopes

Research Project

Project/Area Number 03555111
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Developmental Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Research Field 基礎・土質工学
Research InstitutionKobe University

Principal Investigator

OKIMURA Takashi  Kobe University, Faculty of Engineering, Associate Professor, 工学部, 助教授 (50031125)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) NODA Tsutomu  Soil Consultants Co. Ltd. Kobe Office, Chief, 神戸事務所, 所長
KASHIWAYA Kenji  Kobe University, Graduate School of Science and Technology, Assistant, 自然科学研究科, 助手 (30161029)
川井 隆司  神戸大学, 工学部, 助手 (30169669)
Project Period (FY) 1991 – 1992
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 1992)
Budget Amount *help
¥7,100,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,100,000)
Fiscal Year 1992: ¥1,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000)
Fiscal Year 1991: ¥5,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,900,000)
Keywordsexpert system / Fuzzy theory / Dangerous of probable failure / Consulting probable failure / Slope failure / Rock fall / エキスパ-トシステム / 表層崩壊 / PROLOG / 花崗岩斜面 / 斜面安定
Research Abstract

An expert system for consulting probable failure of a mountain slope is proposed. PROLOG, an artificial intelligence language was used. The basic probability proposed in the Dempster & Shafer theory was used in order to account for the inaccuracy that accompanies domain-specific knowledge. The basic probabilities were determined with 1)to what degree an item affect the occurrence of surface failure and 2)with what frequency a failure appear for each category of every item. Six fuzzy sets are defined as a goal. To examine weather the proposed system is appropriate, we applied it to an area. Our results show that the dangerous goals are obtainable for failed slopes and the safety goals for non- failed ones. Our results also show that topographical factors greatly influence of the occurrence of surface failure on a mountain slope.
This system is a prototype of an expert system for consulting probable failure. The prototype is examined for a mountain slope by some another experts. As the re … More sults, the prototype is modified. Factors of geology, man impacts and countermeasures are supplemented to the model. The basic probability of " probability of "unknown" is changed for many factors in the prototype system. The examination is made with the modified expert system on different mountain slopes. Some problems to be clear in the future are pointed out. These are a knowledge database and a field investigation method.
Furthermore, an expert tool which aid to construct an expert system is employed for the purpose to know what factor affect an appearance of a mountain slope failure. The data are obtained by field investigation of cut, filled and natural slopes along a road in Hyogo prefecture. These data are collected by Hyogo municipal corporation. The data were analyzed by using this tool from regional and geological consideration. The results show that a factor of "history of failure" is very important in some districts, however, in another area, "unstable stones on a slope surface" or "creeping of a surface soil layer". Less

Report

(3 results)
  • 1992 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 1991 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (7 results)

All Other

All Publications (7 results)

  • [Publications] 沖村 孝,広兼 道幸,三上 市蔵,西垣 誠,岡田 純治: "土質工学分野" 土木学会関西支部講習会テキスト「土木工学へのエキスパートシステムの適用と可能性」. 77-94 (1992)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1992 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Takashi OKIMURA and Yoshinao MURAKI: "An expert System for Predicting the Probable Failure of a Mountain Slope during Heavy Rainfall" Zeitschrift fur Geomorphologie. Suppl,-Bd87. 151-161 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1992 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Takashi OKUMURA & Yoshinao MURAKI: "An Expert System for Predicting the Probable Failure on a Mountain Slope during Heavy Rainfall" Zeitschrift fur Geomorphogie. Supplement Band 87. 151-161 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1992 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 沖村 孝・広兼 道幸・三上 市蔵・西垣 誠・岡田 純治: "土質工学分野" 土木学会関西支部講習会テキスト「土木工学へのエキスパートシステムの適用と可能性」. 77-94 (1992)

    • Related Report
      1992 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Takashi Okimura and Yoshinao Muraki: "An Expert System for Predicting the Probable Failure of a Mountain Slope during Heavy Rainfall" Zeitschrift fur Geomorphologie. Suppl-Bd87. 151-161 (1993)

    • Related Report
      1992 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 沖村 孝: "花崗岩表層崩壊危険斜面診断システムについて" 人工知能学会・土木学会関西支部共催 知識ベ-スシステム研究会(第18回). 77-85 (1991)

    • Related Report
      1991 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 枝村 俊郎・川井 隆司ほか: "開発許可業務における知識ベ-スシステムの開発" 人工知能学会・土木学会関西支部共催 知識ベ-スシステム研究会(第18回). 135-144 (1991)

    • Related Report
      1991 Annual Research Report

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Published: 1991-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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