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DEVELOPMENT OF FOUR-STAGE SEQUENTIAL MODEL FOR FORECASTING TRAVEL DEMAND ON TIME-OF-DAY BASIS.

Research Project

Project/Area Number 03555120
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Developmental Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Research Field 交通工学・国土計画
Research InstitutionNagoya Institute of Technology

Principal Investigator

MATSUI Hiroshi  NAGOYA Inst. of Tech., Dept. of Civil Engineering, Professor, 工学部, 教授 (20024242)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) FUJITA Motohiro  NAGOYA Inst. of Tech., Dept. of Civil Engineering, Research associate, 工学部, 助手 (90229013)
MIYAGI Toshihiko  Univ. of GIFU, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Professor, 工学部, 教授 (20092968)
SUGIE Yoriyasu  Univ. of HIROSHIMA, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Professor, 工学部, 教授 (70034410)
Project Period (FY) 1991 – 1992
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 1992)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,200,000)
Fiscal Year 1992: ¥1,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000)
Fiscal Year 1991: ¥2,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,600,000)
Keywordstravel demand / demand forecasting / four-stage model / time-of-day / 動的安定性 / 出発時刻選択 / 曜日変動 / 四段階推定法 / 時間帯別予測
Research Abstract

The conventional four-stage sequential model for forecasting travel demand is used most widely to forecast daily travel demand. However this model is unable to apply hourly travel demand forecasting which is now of particular interest for transportation planners and engineers.
In this paper, we proposed a series of some time-of-day trip generation/ attraction model, trip distribution model, modal split model and traffic assignment model. We also analysed the link-cost functions for traffic assignment used in an entire day, the stability of stochastic equilibrium traffic assignment and the variability of travel behavior in every day of the week.

Report

(3 results)
  • 1992 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 1991 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (13 results)

All Other

All Publications (13 results)

  • [Publications] 松井 寛,藤田 素弘: "交通目的連関を考慮した時間帯別発生集中交通量の予測" 都市計画論文集. 27. 367-372 (1992)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1992 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 松井 寛,藤田 素弘: "時間帯別通勤時刻分布・配分同時モデルの開発" 土木学会論文集・IV. 449. 63-72 (1992)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1992 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 松井 寛,藤田 素弘: "交通量配分における日交通容量とQ-V式の合理的設定方法に関する研究" 土木計画学研究・論文集. 6. 153-160 (1989)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1992 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 杉恵 頼寧,芦沢 哲蔵: "買物利用交通の曜日変動特性" 日本都市計画学会都市計画論文集. 26. 277-282 (1991)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1992 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Hiroshi Matsui, Motohiro Fujita: "Development of a Speed-Volume Rekationship for Use in Traffic Assignment" Infra. Plan.No.3. 153-160 (1986)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1992 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Hiroshi Matsui, Motohiro Fujita, Shoshi Mizokami: "Modelling of The Time-of-Day Traffic Assignment Over a Traffic Network" Proc. of JSCE. No.389. 111-119 (1988)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1992 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Hiroshi Matsui, Motohiro Fujita: "Development of Time-of-Day Traffic Assignment Model Combined With Prediction of Commuters' Departure Time Rate" Proc. of JSCE. No.449. 117-124 (1992)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1992 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Hiroshi Matsui, Motohiro Fujita, Eiji Kamiya: "Forecasting Method of Traffic Generation/Attraction and Distribution on Time-of-Day Basis" Infra.Plan.No.9. 74-84f (1991)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1992 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 松井 寛,藤田 素弘: "交通目的連関を考慮した時間帯別発生集中交通量の予測" 都市計画論文集. 27. 367-372 (1992)

    • Related Report
      1992 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 松井 寛,藤田 素弘: "時間帯別通勤時刻分布・配分同時モデルの開発" 土木学会論文集・IV. 449. 63-72 (1992)

    • Related Report
      1992 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 松井 寛,藤田 素弘: "交通量配分における日交通容量とQ-V式の合理的設定方法に関する研究" 土木計画学研究・論文集. 6. 153-160 (1989)

    • Related Report
      1992 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 杉恵 頼寧,芦沢 哲蔵,: "買物利用交通の曜日変動特性" 日本都市計画学会都市計画論文集. 26. 277-282 (1991)

    • Related Report
      1992 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 松井 寛,藤田 素弘,神谷 英次: "時間帯別発生集中および分布交通量の予測手法に関する研究" 土木計画学研究・論文集. 9. 77-84 (1991)

    • Related Report
      1991 Annual Research Report

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Published: 1991-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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