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Dynamic forecasts of dairy farming structure; using expert systems

Research Project

Project/Area Number 03806035
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Research Field Agro-economics
Research InstitutionHokkaido University

Principal Investigator

OSANAMI Fumio  Hokkaido Univ. Agricultural Economics,Associate Professor, 農学部, 助教授 (00113697)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) MARUYAMA Akira  Rakuno-gakuen Univ. General Education,Lecturer, 教養部, 講師 (60173960)
HIROMASA Yukio  Hokkaido Univ. Agricultural Economics,Associate Professor, 農学部, 助手 (00173295)
KUROKAWA Isao  Hokkaido Univ. Agricultural Economics,Associate Professor, 農学部, 助教授 (90125310)
Project Period (FY) 1991 – 1992
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 1992)
Budget Amount *help
¥1,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,900,000)
Fiscal Year 1992: ¥700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000)
Fiscal Year 1991: ¥1,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000)
KeywordsDairy Industry / Structure of Production Scale / Dynamic Forecast / Artificial Programming Language / Expert System / Markof Transition Probability / Scale Economy / Technological Innovation / エキスパ-トシステム / 酪農生産 / 人工知能 / 地域情報 / 構造変化 / 規模拡大 / OPS5
Research Abstract

The collecting and data service systems of Farm data and other related agricultural information have been established rapidly in many local agricultural cooperatives and governments. But the data is not so much utilized in planning regional agricultural policy and forecasting regional agricultural structure, because there are not so many methods which are appropriate to utilize these data and the limits of data itself.
The regional leaders' experience and knowledge are introduced into the expert system to forecast regional economic situation more efficiently and flexible. Forecasting ability of the structure of dairy farm scale using Markof method has been improved introducing artificial intelligence programming. The knowledge of experts is used to make transition matrix in the expert system. The system dynamics model is also examined as a tool of local policy decision making process. The DEMATEL method is very effective to make clear the target of policy in local agricultural region.
The positive analysis have also done in this study to test the scale of economy in dairy farm sector. The conditions to restrict enlarging the farm scale, such as restriction of family labor, the difference of adopted technique and managerial ability are also examined. The comparison of dairy farm data between Hokkaido and New York State showed that enough labor extending family labor is necessary to adopt new dairy farming technology, Free stall barn and Milking parlor system. These results might be included in expert systems as a important information.
The study has not completed yet especially in dynamic forecast using artificial programing languages. We showed just the possibility of such method and proto-type in this study.

Report

(3 results)
  • 1992 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 1991 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (9 results)

All Other

All Publications (9 results)

  • [Publications] 長南 史男: "酪農生産構造の予測-エキスパートシステムの導入" 農業経営研究. 31. (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1992 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 丸山 明: "北海道酪農における規模の経済性" 北海道農業経済研究". 3. (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1992 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 長南 史男: "天間征編「酪農情報の経済学」" 農林統計協会, 250 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1992 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] F.Osanami: "A Dynamic Forecast of Dairy Farm Scale - Application of Expert System -" JAPANESE JOURNAL OF FARM MANAGEMENT. Vol.21. (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1992 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] A.Maruyama: "Scale Economy of Dairy Farming in Hokkaido" HOKKAIDO JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS. Vol.3. (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1992 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] F.Osanami and others: NOURINTOUKEI-KYOUKAI. Economics of Dairy Farming Information, (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1992 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 長南 史男: "酪農生産構造の予測ーエキスパートシステムの導入ー" 農業経営研究. 31. (1994)

    • Related Report
      1992 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 丸山 明: "北海道酪農における規模の経済性" 北海道農業経済研究. 3. (1993)

    • Related Report
      1992 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 天間 征 編,長南 史男: "酪農情報の経済学" 農林統計協会, 250 (1993)

    • Related Report
      1992 Annual Research Report

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Published: 1991-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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