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Construction of a System to Predict the Future Revolution in the State Law Examination

Research Project

Project/Area Number 04552001
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Developmental Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Research Field Fundamental law
Research InstitutionUniversity of Tsukuba

Principal Investigator

SUZUKI Hisatosi  University of Tsukuba, Professor, 社会工学系, 教授 (10108219)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) KIJIMA M.  University of Tsukuba, Associate Prof., 社会工学系, 助教授 (00186222)
Project Period (FY) 1992 – 1993
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 1993)
Budget Amount *help
¥2,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,200,000)
Fiscal Year 1993: ¥700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000)
Fiscal Year 1992: ¥1,500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000)
KeywordsSosial system / the state law examination / system revolution / prediction / quantitative / mathematical engineering / Markov chain / simulation model
Research Abstract

The aim of this investigation was three-fold : (1) to collect the data concerning the state law examination in Japan up to now, which would be invaluable because the examination system has been under revolution, (2) to construct a simulation scheme based on a Markov chain model, which was previously applied and proved valid when the Ministry of Justice asked us to investigate what if the number of passed examiners is increased to 700 from 500, and (3) to establish a computer system to predict the future revolution of the examination system, which is the key to success of this investigation because we want to analyze many scenarios.
For this purpose, we mainly studied a theoretical part of Markov chains in the last year, while this year we completed the computer system, built various scenarios and compared them by our system. As a result, we find that the scenario with 900 being accepted, which is currently a leading opinion, will not be effective for breaking down the vicious circle in which the average of age for passed examiners becomes high and high. We also find that the data is biased due to the extraordinary value of the number of birth in 1966.
Further research is being conducted to analyze the case of 1, 000 being accepted.

Report

(3 results)
  • 1993 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 1992 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (32 results)

All Other

All Publications (32 results)

  • [Publications] 鈴木久敏: "司法試験制度改革に伴う合格者像の変動予測" 第27回SSOR予稿集. 183-188 (1992)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1993 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kijima,M.: ""A note on external uniformization for finite Markov chains in Continuous-time"" Probability in the Engineering and Informational Science. 6. 127-131 (1992)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1993 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kijima,M.: "On the existence of quasi-stationary distribu-tions in denumerable R-transient Markov chains" Journal of Applied Probability. 29. 21-36 (1992)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1993 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kijima,M.: ""On the transient solution to a class of Markovian queues"" Computers and Mathematics with Applications. 24. 17-24 (1992)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1993 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kijima,M.: ""Further monotonicity properties of renewal processes"" Advances in Applied Probability. 24. 575-588 (1992)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1993 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kijima,M.: ""Evaluation of the decay parameter for some specialized birth-death processes"" Journal of Applied Probability. 29. 781-791 (1992)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1993 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kijima,M.: ""Quasi-limiting distributions of Markov chains that are skip-free to the left in continuous-time"" Journal of Applied Probability. 30. 509-517 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1993 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kijima,M.: ""Numerical calculation of ruin probabilities for skip-free Markov chains"" SIAM Review. 35. 621-624 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1993 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kijima,M.: ""On separation for birth-death processes"" Probability in the Engineerin and Informational Science. 8(発表予定). (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1993 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kijima,M.: ""Bounds for the quasi-stationary distributions of Markov chains"" Mathematical and Computer Modelling. (発表予定). (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1993 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 木島正明: "ファイナンス工学入門:第I部,ランダムウォークとブラウン運動" 日科技連出版社, 250 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1993 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Suzuki, H.: "Predict the Future Revolution in State Law Examination" Proceddings of the 27th SSOR. 27. 183-188 (1992)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1993 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kijima, M.: "A note on external uniformization for finite Markov chains in Continuous-time" Probability in the Engineering and Informational Science. 6. 127-131 (1992)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1993 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kijima, M.: "On the existence of quasi-stationary distributions in denumerable R-transient Markov chains" Journal of Applied Probability. 29. 21-36 (1992)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1993 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kijima, M.: "On the transient solution to a class of Markovian queues" Computers and Mathematics with Applications. 24. 17-24 (1992)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1993 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kijima, M.: "Further monotonicity properties of renewal processes" Advances in Applied Probability. 24. 575-588 (1992)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1993 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kijima, M.: "Evaluation of the decay parameter for some specialized birth-death processes" Journal of Applied Probability. 29. 781-791 (1992)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1993 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kijima, M.: "Quasi-limiting distributions of Markov chains that are skip-free to the left in continuous-time" Journal of Applied Probability. 30. 509-517 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1993 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kijima, M.: "Numerical calculation of ruin probabilities for skio-free Markov chains" SIAM Review. 35. 621-624 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1993 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kijima, M.: "On separation for birth-death processes" Probability in the Engineering and Informational Science. 8 (to appear). (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1993 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kijima, M.: "Bounds for the quasi-stationary distributions of Markov chains" Mathematical and Computer Modelling. (to appear). (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1993 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kijima,M.: "Quasi-limiting distributions of Mark a chains that are skip-free to the left in continuous time" Journal of Applied Probability. 30. 509-517 (1993)

    • Related Report
      1993 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Kijima,M.: "Numerical calculation of ruin probabilities for skip-free Markon chains" SIAM Review. 35. 621-624 (1993)

    • Related Report
      1993 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Kijima,M.: "On separation for birth-death processes" Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences. 8. (1994)

    • Related Report
      1993 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Kijima,M.: "Bounds for the quasi-stationary distributions of Markon chains" Mathematical and Computer Modelling. (1994)

    • Related Report
      1993 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 木島正明: "ファイナンス工学入門:第I部,ランダムウォークとブラウン運動" 日科技連出版社, 250 (1994)

    • Related Report
      1993 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 鈴木 久敏: "司法試験制度改革に伴う合格者の変動予測" 第27回SSOR予稿集. 183-188 (1992)

    • Related Report
      1992 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Kijima,M.: "¨A note on external uniformization for finite Markov chains in Continuous-time¨" Probability in the Engineering and Informational Science. 6. 127-131 (1992)

    • Related Report
      1992 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Kijima,M.: "¨On the existence of quasi-stationary distributions in denumerable R-transient Markov chains¨" Journal of Applied Probability. 29. 21-36 (1992)

    • Related Report
      1992 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Kijima,M.: "¨On the transient solution to a class of Markovian queues¨" Computers and Mathematics with Applications. 24. 17-24 (1992)

    • Related Report
      1992 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Kijima,M.: "¨Further monotonicity properties of renewal processes¨" Advances in Applied Probability. 24. 575-588 (1992)

    • Related Report
      1992 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Kijima,M.: "¨Evaluation of the decay parameter for some specialized birth-death processes¨" Journal of Applied Probability. 29. 781-791 (1992)

    • Related Report
      1992 Annual Research Report

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Published: 1992-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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