|Budget Amount *help
¥2,200,000 (Direct Cost : ¥2,200,000)
Fiscal Year 1993 : ¥700,000 (Direct Cost : ¥700,000)
Fiscal Year 1992 : ¥1,500,000 (Direct Cost : ¥1,500,000)
The aim of this investigation was three-fold : (1) to collect the data concerning the state law examination in Japan up to now, which would be invaluable because the examination system has been under revolution, (2) to construct a simulation scheme based on a Markov chain model, which was previously applied and proved valid when the Ministry of Justice asked us to investigate what if the number of passed examiners is increased to 700 from 500, and (3) to establish a computer system to predict the future revolution of the examination system, which is the key to success of this investigation because we want to analyze many scenarios.
For this purpose, we mainly studied a theoretical part of Markov chains in the last year, while this year we completed the computer system, built various scenarios and compared them by our system. As a result, we find that the scenario with 900 being accepted, which is currently a leading opinion, will not be effective for breaking down the vicious circle in which the average of age for passed examiners becomes high and high. We also find that the data is biased due to the extraordinary value of the number of birth in 1966.
Further research is being conducted to analyze the case of 1, 000 being accepted.