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Development of Estimation Method for Loss of Human Lives Due to Catastrophic Urban Disasters

Research Project

Project/Area Number 05558050
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Developmental Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Research Field Natural disaster science
Research InstitutionKYOTO UNIVERSITY

Principal Investigator

KAWATA Yoshiaki  Kyoto University, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Professor, 防災研究所, 教授 (10027295)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) KOBAYASHI Masami  Kyoto University, Faculty of Engineering Professor, 工学部, 教授 (50109021)
KAMEDA Hiroyuki  Kyoto University, Disaster prevention Research Institute, Professor, 防災研究所, 教授 (80025949)
Project Period (FY) 1993 – 1995
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 1995)
Budget Amount *help
¥6,800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥6,800,000)
Fiscal Year 1995: ¥2,400,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,400,000)
Fiscal Year 1994: ¥2,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,200,000)
Fiscal Year 1993: ¥2,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,200,000)
KeywordsCatastrophic disaster / Urban disaster / Loss of human lives / Lifeline / Urban space / Compound disaster / The Great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster / 死者数 / 阪神・淡路大地震 / 直下型地震 / 人口密度
Research Abstract

Rapid urbanization has increased disaster vulnerability in urban areas in Japan. As shown in the Great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disasters, the loss of human lives are extremely huge in urban disasters in which several scenarios are not predictable before the disaster. This is mainly due to complex structure of our urban society such as densely distributed wooden and old houses, much crowded passengers at every railway and subway station in rush hours and lifeline network systems with a little redundancy. Catastrophic urban disasters are characterized by overpopulation and dense concetration of energy and information which have not maintained their balance with investment for disaster reduction or prevention. The population density in large cities of over 1 million residents is the most important factor which amplifies the loss of human lives as well as property damage. The maximum risk to life can be estimated with the function of lifespan which expresses a disaster prevention force. The loss of human lives due to the Great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster in January 17,1995 was estimated by this method. The estimated maximum number of loss of lives was 1.33 times of the number recorded at Kobe, Nishinomiya and Ashiya cities. The earthquake occurrence at 5 : 46 am.was very fortunate because urban activity did not start yet. The disaster proposed us much data about scenarios of damage. From the view points of statistics, the railway accidents due to strong seismic acceleration of the earthquake brought almost minimum human damage.

Report

(4 results)
  • 1995 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 1994 Annual Research Report
  • 1993 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (28 results)

All Other

All Publications (28 results)

  • [Publications] 河田恵昭: "都市災害の被災シナリオと人的被害予測" 阪神・淡路大震災に関する学術講演会論文集. 735-742 (1996)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 河田恵昭: "都市と巨大災害" 京大防災研究所公開口座「阪神・淡路大震災に学ぶ」テキスト. 1-28 (1995)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 河田恵昭: "大規模災害に備えて" 消防科学と情報. 12-17 (1995)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 亀田弘行: "兵庫県南部地震による都市災害について" 京大防災研究所年報(A). 38. 99-121 (1995)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 小林正美: "雲仙岳災害に伴う生活拠点移動に関する研究" 京大防災研究所年報(B). 38. 127-142 (1995)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 牧 紀男・小林正美: "応急仮設住宅の物理実態と問題点に関する研究" 日本建築学会計画系論文集. 476. 125-133 (1995)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 河田恵昭: "都市大災害" 近未来社, 234 (1995)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kawata, Y.: "Damage scenarios and estimation of human lives in urban disaster" Proceedings of the Great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster, JSCE. 735-742 (1996)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kawata, Y.: "Catastrophic urban disaster" Learned from Extraordinary damages in Hanshin-Awaji areas caused by the Hyogoken-nanbu Earthquake DPRI extension lecture of Kyoto University. 1-28 (1995)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kawata, Y.: "Prepardness for catastrophic disaster" Shobo kagaku to joho. 12-17 (1995)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kameda, H.: "The urban disaster caused by the Hyogoken-Nambu earthquke" Annuals of DPRI,Kyoto University. No.38A. 99-121 (1995)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Miura, K., Maki, N., and Kobayashi, M.: "Study on relocation of Mt.Unzen-Fugen dake" Annuals of DPRI,Kyoto University. No.38B-2. 127-141 (1995)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Maki, N., Miura, K., and Kobayashi, M.: "Actual condition and issues from physical aspect on temporary housing" Journal of Archit.Plann.Environ.Eng.AIJ,No.476. 125-133 (1995)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kawata, Y.: "Catastrophic urban disasters" Kinmiraisha. (1995)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 河田恵昭: "都市災害の被害シナリオと人的被害予測" 阪神・淡路大震災に関する学術講演会論文集. 735-742 (1996)

    • Related Report
      1995 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 河田恵昭: "都市と巨大災害" 京大防災研究所公開講座「阪神・淡路大震災に学ぶ」テキスト. 1-28 (1995)

    • Related Report
      1995 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 河田恵昭: "大規模災害に備えて" 消防科学と情報. 12-17 (1995)

    • Related Report
      1995 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 亀田弘行: "兵庫県南部地震による都市災害について" 京大防災研究所年報(A). 38. 99-121 (1995)

    • Related Report
      1995 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 小林正美: "雲仙岳災害に伴う生活拠点移動に関する研究" 京大防災研年報(B). 38. 127-142 (1995)

    • Related Report
      1995 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 河田恵昭: "都市大災害" 近未来社, 234 (1995)

    • Related Report
      1995 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 河田恵昭: "都市ウォーターフロントの治水と親水" 土木学会創立80周年記念国際シンポジウム論文集. 61-65 (1994)

    • Related Report
      1994 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 河田恵昭: "1992年インドネシア・フローレス島地震津波及び1993年北海道南西沖地震津波の調査" 京都大学防災研究所年報. 37. A145-167 (1994)

    • Related Report
      1994 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 河田恵昭: "都市防災システム論" 京都大学防災研究所年報. 37. B2.113-125 (1994)

    • Related Report
      1994 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Hiroyuki Kameda and Hitoshi Morikawa: "Corditioned Stochastic Processes for Carditional Rardon Fields" Journal of Engineering Mechanics. 120. 855-875 (1994)

    • Related Report
      1994 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Hiroyuki Kameda: "Multi-Phase Evaluation of Lifeline System Performance under Eaearthquake Environ" Pvoc.of 2nd China-Japan-US Trilateral Symposium on Lifeline Engineening,China.1-16 (1994)

    • Related Report
      1994 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Hiroyuki Kameda: "Probabilistic Seismic Hazard and Stochastic Ground Motions." Engineering Structures.16. 547-557 (1994)

    • Related Report
      1994 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 河田恵昭: "臨海低平都市における海岸防災論" 海岸工学論文集. 第40. 1176-1180 (1993)

    • Related Report
      1993 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 河田恵昭: "都市型自然災害の特徴と被害発生シナリオ" 国際防災会議あいち・なごや'93論文集. 43-53 (1993)

    • Related Report
      1993 Annual Research Report

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Published: 1993-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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