| Project/Area Number |
05650508
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Research Field |
交通工学・国土計画
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| Research Institution | HIROSHIMA UNIVERSITY |
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Principal Investigator |
SUGIE Yoriyasu Hiroshima Univ.Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Professor, 大学院・国際協力研究科, 教授 (70034410)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
IMADA Hirofumi Hiroshima Univ.Fac.of Eng, Research Assistant, 工学部, 助手 (80093730)
FUJIWARA Akimasa Hiroshima Univ.Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, As, 大学院・国際協力研究科, 助教授 (50181409)
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| Project Period (FY) |
1993 – 1994
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 1994)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥2,100,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,100,000)
Fiscal Year 1994: ¥600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000)
Fiscal Year 1993: ¥1,500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000)
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| Keywords | Stated preference / Dynamics / Panel / Multinomial logit models / Mode choice / ダイナミック / 交通機関選択 / ロジットモデル / 新交通システム |
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| Research Abstract |
In order to analyze the effect of changing the travel environment on mode choice, it is essential to obtain panel data which indicate the temporal change of individuals' travel behavior.We carried out stated preference surveys four times during 1987 to 1993 for work/school trips in Hiroshima.The survey in 1993 was done in this research program.Dynamic analysis of stated preference, for New Transit System which was going to be opened in 1994, was conducted using the panel data consisting of three data sets in 1987,90 and 93.
It was first empirically demonstrated that stated preference for NTS is greatly affected by actual travel modes consisting of car and bus, and that temporal change of stated preference which was caused by change of actual travel mode does not support the Markovian assumptions which indicate individual's responses to a change of travel mode does not support the Markovian assumptions which indicate individual's responses to a change of travel environment, it is shown that mode switchers from car to bus have a higher preference for bus but less for NTS than expected.
The importance of state dependence was also demonstrated by building dynamic stated preference mode choice models of Multinomial Logit type.It also brings out a fact that stated preference for mode choice is more dependent on past history of travel environment than the choice probabilities based on past stated preference.These results will imply the importance of dynamic analysis on stated preference data in the same way as revealed preference data.
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