| Budget Amount *help |
¥1,700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,700,000)
Fiscal Year 1994: ¥600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000)
Fiscal Year 1993: ¥1,100,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000)
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| Research Abstract |
This study proposes a structure analysis of traffic accidents for evaluation of possible traffic safety measures. Traffic accident is characterized that many factors in traffic condition and road/fairway/airfield configuration surrounding driver/navigator/pilot jointly contribute the occurrence of traffic accident. This characteristics suggests the usefulness of applying Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) to making clear the structure of traffic accidents. There is a rich stock of past traffic accident records because of the surveying and reporting systems.
Taking these characteristics into consideration, this study proposed a method to construct a Fault Tree (FT) of traffic accidents from accident records. This method consists of two stages, extracting a partial FT from an accident record and superimposing the extracted partial FTs to form a unified FT.For finding dominant causes of accidents and for evaluating the effect of safety measures, an importance analysis should be conducted. However, the conventional technique of importance analysis cannot necessarily be applied directory on such a FT of traffic accidents. Though the conventional technique assumes that the occurrence of causal event is clearly judged, many human-related causal events, which is difficult to be clearly judged whether it occurred or not, exist in the FT.For resolving this difficulty in evaluation, a new technique has been developed by introducing the concept of fuzzy set theory.
These techniques were arranged into a procedure, and was demonstrated in the concrete by using several selected records of ship collision and airfield traffic incident. Then the FTs obtained were applied to a safety evaluation how effective the proposed safety measures are. Through the case study, many useful information was obtained including the importance for preventing simultaneous occurrence of several causal events. The results suggest us a direction in developing effective safety measures of transportation systems.
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