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DEVELOPMENT OF FORCASTING AND WARNING SYSTEM FOR DEBRIS FLOWS,MT.UNZENDAKE

Research Project

Project/Area Number 06558058
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Developmental Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Research Field Natural disaster science
Research InstitutionKYUSHU UNIVERSITY

Principal Investigator

HIRANO Muneo  KYUSHU UNIVERSITY,FACULTY OF ENGINEERING,DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING,PROFESSOR, 工学部, 教授 (50037850)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) MORIYAMA Toshiyuki  KYUSHU UNIVERSITY,FACULTY OF ENGINEERING,DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING,RESEARC, 工学部, 助手 (50136537)
HASHIMOTO Haruyuki  KYUSHU UNIVERSITY,FACULTY OF ENGINEERING,DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING,ASSOCIA, 工学部, 助教授 (70117216)
Project Period (FY) 1994 – 1995
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 1995)
Budget Amount *help
¥2,800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,800,000)
Fiscal Year 1995: ¥2,800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,800,000)
KeywordsDEBRIS FLOWS / MT.UNZEN / FIFLD MEASUREMENT / PRECIPITATION RADAR / FORCASTING SYSTEM / WARNING SYSTEM
Research Abstract

Debris flows have frequently occurred in the Mizunashi River and caused severe damage in the downstream area at Unzen Volcano by deposition of large amount of sediments. Therefore it becomes important to predict the debris flows. The results obtained in this study are as follows :
(1) Field observations and measurements of debris flows have been carried out at two locations on Mt.Unzendake. Radio current-meter and ultrasonic water level gauge were used to obtain surface velocity, depth and discharge. Peak discharge was found Q=195m^3/s at the Mizunashi River and Q=40m^3/s at the Nakao River.
(2) A neural network is used to make a runoff model of debris flow. The data of velocity and depth of debris flow were collected at the Mizunashi River on 12-13 June, 1993. For learning, the discharge of debris flow Q (t), and ten-minute rainfall 20 to 70 minute ahead, r (t-20), r (t-30), ・・・・・・, r (t-70), are used as the input units. The recognized values show close agreement with the observed ones. … More As on other reliable data of hydrograph has been taken at the Mizunashi River, it is hard to verify the model by using the hydrograph of other events. However, the amounts of deposits were measured by the Ministry of Japan Construction. The applicability of the model can be checked by comparing the total amount of debris flow with the measured amounts of deposits. The volume of debris flow integrated from the predicted hydrographs show fairly good agreement with observed ones. Neural networks are useful for making runoff analyzes of debris flows.
(3) In the previous study, the neural networks with back-propagation method (BP) were applied to predict the occurrence of debris flow. It was also found that this model is useful to estimate the critical rainfall. In this study, LVQ (Learning Vector Quantization) is introduced to improve the accuracy of the prediction. The LVQ and BP are applied to the debris flow at Unzen and Sakurajima Volcanoes. Comparison between the results by both methods confirms that LVQ has an advantage in prediction. The BP model is used to find the critical condition at Unzen Volcano. Validity of the method is demonstrated by the theory of the occurrence criteria of debris flow. Less

Report

(3 results)
  • 1995 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 1994 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (10 results)

All Other

All Publications (10 results)

  • [Publications] 川原恵一郎・平野宗夫・森山聡之: "ニューラルネットワークにおける土石流の発生限界降雨の評価" 水工学論文集. 40. (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 恩田邦彦・橋本晴行・寺中孝司: "雲仙水無川における小規模土石流の再現計算" 平成7年度自然災害西部地区発表会論文集. (1996)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] M.HIRANO,T.MORIYAMA,K.KAWAHARA AND K.WATANABE: "CHARACTERISTICS OF DEBRIS FLOW IN UNZEN VOLCANO" INTERNATIONAL SABO SYMPOSIUM. 1995.

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] M.HIRANO,T.MORIYAMA,K.KAWAHARA AND M.E.BANIHABIB: "PREDICTION OF OCCURRENCE AND AMOUNT OF DEBRIS FLOW BY USE OF NEURAL NETWORKS" 1995, ANNUAL CONFERENCE,IAMG. 1995.

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] K.KAWAHARA,M.MUNEO AND T.MORIYAMA: "ESTIMATION OF CRITICAL RAINFALL FOR OCCURRENCE OF DEBRIS FLOW BY USE OF THE NEURAL NETWORKS" ANNUAL JOURNAL OF HYDRAULIC ENGINEERING,JSCE. VOL.40. (1996)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] K.ONDA,H.HASHIMOTO,T.TERANAKA AND M.HIRANO: "NUMERICAL COMPUTATION OF DEBRIS FLOWS IN THE MIZUNASHI RIVER,MT.UNZENDAKE" WESTERN REGIONAL DIVISION REPORT OF JAPAN GROUP FOR THE STUDY OF NATURAL DISASTER. 1996.

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 川原恵一郎・平野宗夫・森山聡之: "ニューラルネットワークによる土石流の発生限界降雨の評価" 水工学論文集. 40. (1996)

    • Related Report
      1995 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 恩田邦彦・橋本晴行・平野宗夫: "雲仙水無川における小規模土石流の再現計算" 平成7年度自然災害西部地区研究発表会論文集. (掲載予定). (1996)

    • Related Report
      1995 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 川原恵一郎・平野宗夫・森山聡之: "ニューラルネットワークによる土石流流出量の予測" 水工学論文集. 39(掲載予定). (1995)

    • Related Report
      1994 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 森山聡之・平野宗夫・古堀謙次: "地域特性を考慮したニューラルネットワークによる短時間降雨予測" 水文水資源学会研究発表会要旨集. 72-73 (1994)

    • Related Report
      1994 Annual Research Report

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Published: 1995-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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