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Forecasting Model of Marine Transport Economies Based on Artificial Life Concept

Research Project

Project/Area Number 06651081
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Research Field 船舶工学
Research InstitutionUniversity of Osaka prefecture

Principal Investigator

KISHI Mitsuo  College of Eng., University of Osaka prefecture Assistant Prof, 工学部, 助教授 (00145814)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) YAMADA Tomoki  College of Eng., University of Osaka prefecture Assistant, 工学部, 助手 (90240027)
HOSODA Ryusuke  College of Eng., University of Osaka prefecture Professor, 工学部, 教授 (30081392)
Project Period (FY) 1994 – 1995
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 1995)
Budget Amount *help
¥2,000,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,000,000)
Fiscal Year 1995: ¥400,000 (Direct Cost: ¥400,000)
Fiscal Year 1994: ¥1,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000)
KeywordsArtificial life / Emergent behavior / Economic model / Transport networks / Demand forecasting / Marine transport / East Asia / North Korea revolution / 経済主体 / オブジェクト指向 / 輸送需要予測 / 物流ネットワーク
Research Abstract

The forecasting should begin preparing a variety of pictures, herein called "rich pictures, " for the future environment. The next step is analyzing the system behavior of interest for individual rich picture. Basically, qualitative analysis is more preferable than quantitative analysis in long-term forecasts. The extrapolative forecasting, which depends on actual record of the past, does not cope with drastic changes in environmental conditions. In order to study the "future-as-it-can-be, " we desire a system dynamics model which can adapt to those rich pictures.
Artificial Life (AL) is the study of man-made systems that exhibit behavior characteristics of natural living systems. The AL focuses on the system behavior which emerges out of the interactions among micro/local objects. Thus, the AL is concerned with system dynamics. The system dynamics model based on the AL concept can flexibly adapt itself to the given environment, since that model is merely a large aggregation of simple programs which specify how the local objects react in the environment.
We propose a forecasting model based on the AL concept for transport network growth. This model is an artificial world where the local objects, i.e.people, resources developers, energy factories, products factories, transporters, traders, banks, and governments, act for individual purpose. The AL-based model presents us a variety of scenarios in transport planning. Application example of East-Asia transport network growth is provided to illustrate the applicability of the proposed model.

Report

(3 results)
  • 1995 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 1994 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (20 results)

All Other

All Publications (20 results)

  • [Publications] R.Hosoda: "Transport Planning System Based on Artificial Life Concept" Proc.of 5th Int .Marine Design Conf.& Summer Meeting of German Soc.of Naval Architects. 1. 175-186 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 岸 光男: "人工生命の概念に基づく交通需要予測-東アジアの海上輸送ネットワークの未来シナリオー" 第18回NCP研究会・機械の強度と形態研究懇話会 シンポジウム論文集(日本機械学会関西支部). 1-2 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] M.Kishi: "Transport Forecasting Based on Artificial Life Concept" Proc.of Int.System Dynamics Conference. 2. 611-620 (1995)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 岸 光男: "SDモデルの分類階層化" システムダイナミックス. 1. 1-10 (1995)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 岸 光男: "配置設計" 造船設計委員会第2回シンポジウム論文集(日本造船学会). 29-42 (1995)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 岸 光男: "システム工学" 共立出版(株), 196 (1995)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] R.Hosoda, et al: "Transport Planning System Based on Artificial Life Concept" Proc.of 5th Int. Marine Design Conf. & Summer Meeting of German Soc.of Naval Architects. Vol.1. 175-186 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] M.Kishi, et al: "Forecasting Model of East Asia Marine Transport Networks" Proc.of 18th NCP Research Soc.1-2 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] M.Kishi, et al: "Transport Forecasting Based on Artificial Life Concept" Proc.of 1995 Int.System Dynamics Conference. Vol.2. 611-620 (1995)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] M.Kishi, et al: "Conceptual Clustering for System-Dynamics Models" Japanese Journal of System Dynamics. No.1. 1-10 (1995)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] M.Kishi, et al: "Bridge Arrangement Design" Proc.of 2nd Sympo. on Marine Design, Soc.of Naval Architects of Japan. 29-42 (1995)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] M.Kishi, et al: Systems Engineering. Kyoritsu Shuppan (in Japanese), 196 (1995)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] R.Hosoda: "Transport Planning System Based on Artificial Life Concept" Proc.of 5th Int.Marine Design Conference. 175-186 (1994)

    • Related Report
      1995 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 岸光男: "人工生命の概念に基づく交通需要予測-東アジアの海上輸送ネットワークの未来シナリオー" 第18回NCP研究会・機械の強度と形態研究懇話会シンポジウム論文集. 1-2 (1994)

    • Related Report
      1995 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] M.Kishi: "Transport Forecasting Based on Artificial Life Concept" Proc.of Int.System Dynamics Conference. 2. 611-620 (1995)

    • Related Report
      1995 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 岸光男: "配置成形" 造船設計委員会第2回シンポジウム論文集. 29-42 (1995)

    • Related Report
      1995 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 岸光男: "システム工学" 共立出版(株), 196 (1995)

    • Related Report
      1995 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] R.Hosoda: "Transport Planning System Basedon Artifical Life Concept" Proc.of 5th Int.Marine Desing Conference,Delft,Netherlands. 175-186 (1994)

    • Related Report
      1994 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 岸 光男: "人工生命の概念に基づく交通需要予測-東アジアの海上輸送ネットワークの未来シナリオー" 第18回NCP研究会・機械の強度と形態研究懇話会論文集. 1-2 (1994)

    • Related Report
      1994 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 岸 光男: "システム工学(機械システム入門シリーズ6)" 共立出版, 180 (1995)

    • Related Report
      1994 Annual Research Report

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Published: 1994-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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