| Project/Area Number |
08558039
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 展開研究 |
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| Research Field |
Natural disaster science
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| Research Institution | KYOTO UNIVERSITY |
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Principal Investigator |
HORI Tomoharu Kyoto University, department of Civil Engineering Systems, Associate Professor, 工学研究科, 助教授 (20190225)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
TACHIKAWA Yasuto Kyoto Univ.D.P.R.I., Associate Professor, 防災研究所, 助教授 (40227088)
高棹 琢馬 京都大学, 工学研究科, 教授 (30025895)
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| Project Period (FY) |
1996 – 1997
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 1997)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥2,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,300,000)
Fiscal Year 1997: ¥900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 1996: ¥1,400,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000)
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| Keywords | refuge / flood disaster / attitude on disaster prevention / simulation / artificial Intelligence / fuzzy set theory / object-oriented design / 洪水 / 水害意識 / 氾濫 / 意識 / 被害軽減行動 / 防災 / 社会システム |
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| Research Abstract |
Refuge action is an important countermeasure to the flood disasters especially from the viewpoint of human life saving. It depends largely on the life pattern, experience of floods, knowledge about flood and refuge routes of basin residents. Therefore a model which enables us to analyze the way of inhabitants' refuge actions under various conditions is necessary to make refuge actions one of the soft countermeasure to mitigate flood disasters.
In this study, a simulation system of flood refuge actions including metal decision process of inhabitants. The main research results are summarized as follows :
1. A system which can simulate the refuge actions of basin residents under various conditions are developed based on a micro refuge action model scheme which has been designed by the head investigator, In the model, the inhabitants' feeling on the danger of flood situation is expressed by the newly introduced parameter 'danger recognition rate', and the way of decision making on refuge actions is expressed by production rules and fuzzy inference ones.
2. Pseudo-questionnaire method is developed to calibrate the flood refuge action model and calibration algorithm is designed based on the method. In the micro flood refuge action model, the mental processes about refuge actions, such as why inhabitants decided the refuge or why not, can be analyzed after the simulation because the model possesses the metal decision making processes of each household, and so it is possible to get the results for questions which are usually used in field questionnaire researches. Pseudo-questionnaire is the method to minimize the difference between the simulation results and those got by field investigation doing the questionnaire to household objects distributed in the computer.
3. A display system which shows the refuge actions and inundation situation accroding to the simulation run.
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