| Project/Area Number |
08680475
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
社会システム工学
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| Research Institution | University of Marketing & Distribution Sciences |
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Principal Investigator |
SANDOH Hiroaki University of Marketing & Distribution Sciences Dept.of Information & Management Sciences, 情報学部, 教授 (40167440)
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| Project Period (FY) |
1996 – 1997
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 1997)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥1,700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,700,000)
Fiscal Year 1997: ¥700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000)
Fiscal Year 1996: ¥1,000,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000)
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| Keywords | Direct mail, catalog / Curtailment of catalog delivery / Demand forecasting / Fast moving product / Slow moving product / Test catalog / テストカタログ / カタログ発送打切り / 顧客購売行動 / マルコフチェーン / 基本モデル / 拡張モデル |
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| Research Abstract |
This study has built mathematical models for solving the following three kinds of problems in direct mail :
*Curtailment problems of catalog delivery
*Demand forecasting of a product based on the demand immediately after the publication of catalog.
*A method for judging whether or not the new product is a fast moving product
For the first problem in the above, this study proposed a mathematical model based on renewal reward theory, focusing on customers who have frequently purchased. Under the proposed model, the catalog delivery is curtailed for the customers who have not responded to the recent K successive catalog deliveries.
For the second problem, the cumulative demand was expressed by means of non-homogeneous Poisson process with mean value function H (t). A method was then proposed for demand forecasting, which used the relationship between the mean value function in the past and that immediately after the publication of the catalog.
For the final problem, it was proposed to conduct a sales test for a new product using a test catalog. If the number of demands in the test catalog is equal to k or more, the new product is regarded as a fast moving product to be adopted in the normal catalog. When the number of demand in the test catalog is less than k, it is regarded as a slow moving product not to adopt in the normal catalog. The expected cost was formulated for the purposed of obtaining a optimal value of k.
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