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Design of a System Dynamics Model for Problems in a Remote, Depopulated Rural Community

Research Project

Project/Area Number 09610195
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field 社会学(含社会福祉関係)
Research InstitutionHokkaido Tokai University

Principal Investigator

HARA Toshihiko  Hokkaido Tokai University, Faculity of International Cultural Relations, Professor, 国際文化学部, 教授 (00208654)

Project Period (FY) 1997 – 1999
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 1999)
Budget Amount *help
¥2,100,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,100,000)
Fiscal Year 1999: ¥500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000)
Fiscal Year 1998: ¥500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000)
Fiscal Year 1997: ¥1,100,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000)
KeywordsDepopulation / Population Movement / Local Population / Simulation / System Dynamics / Community Social Welfare / Aging / Birth Rate Decline / シュミレーション / 地域福祉 / 人口社会学 / 地域計画
Research Abstract

The purpose of this study is to design a theoretical model for sociocultural and economic problem observed in the depopulation process. Using the system dynamics approach and its new software (Stella Research 5.1.1.J. Version), we developed the model, which are composed of some sectors like population, the industry-employment , social welfare, education, retail shops and community budget.
And we simulated :
(1) the effects of changing (a) product demand, (b) product price, c material price and (d) standard wage outside of the community, on the industrial performance and the migration of labor force in different scenarios,
(2) the impacts of out-migration on social welfare, education, retail shops and community budget,
(3)the impacts of social welfare, education, retail shops and community budget in a remote, depopulated rural community, on its out-migration and employers' age structure.
(4)the Possible Effects of Political Intervention in Future Developments of Depopulated Rural Community.

Report

(4 results)
  • 1999 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 1998 Annual Research Report
  • 1997 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (14 results)

All Other

All Publications (14 results)

  • [Publications] Toshihiko HARA: "Impacts of Out-migration on Social Welfare, Education, Retail Shops and Community Budget; Design of a System Dynamics Model for Problems in a Remote, Depopulated Rural Community: Part III"Hokkaido Tokai University Humanities & Social Sciences, Hokkaido Tokai Univ., Sappro. 9. 1-17 (1997)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1999 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Toshihiko HARA: "Impacts of Social Welfare, Education, Retail Shops and Community Budget, On Out-migration; Design of a System Dynamics Model for Problems in a Remote, Depopulated Rural Community: Part IV"Hokkaido Tokai University Humanities & Social Sciences, Hokkaido Tokai Univ., Sappro. 10. 57-78 (1998)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1999 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Toshihiko HARA: "Economic Trends and Local Population Movement -Hokkaido in Recession"Statistics, Japan Statistical Association. 10. 1-6 (1998)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1999 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Toshihiko HARA: "Practice in Local Population Projection, Materials for Lectures on Basic Population Problem"Research Association for Population Problems. 2. 135-144 (1998)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1999 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Toshihiko HARA: "the Meaning of Decentralization Promotion Plan for Local Community"Hokkaido Self-government, Daiichhoki-Syuppan. 11. 4-17 (1998)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1999 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Toshihiko HARA: "Birth Rate Decline in Hokkaido"Statistics, Japan Statistical Association. 3. 16-21 (2000)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1999 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Toshihiko HARA: "Consideration of the Possible Effects of Political Intervention in Future Developments of Depopulated Rural Community; Design of a System Dynamics Model for Problems in a Remote, Depopulated Rural Community: Part V"Hokkaido Tokai University Humanities & Social Sciences ,Hokkaido Tokai Univ., Sappro. 13. 25-45 (2000)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1999 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 原 俊彦: "特集「日本の少子化」を考える-北海道における少子化"統計. 3. 16-21 (2000)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 原 俊彦: "過疎化対策の可能性とその効果-過疎化のシステム・ダイナミックス・モデルの構築 -その5-"北海道東海大学紀要人文社会科学系. 13(印刷中). (2000)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 原 俊彦: "景気動向と地域人口移動-不況下の北海道を考える" 統計. 10. 1-6 (1998)

    • Related Report
      1998 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 原 俊彦: "地域人口推計の実際、" 第2回人口問題基礎講座 資料. 10. 135-144 (1998)

    • Related Report
      1998 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 原 俊彦: "地方分権推進計画が意味するもの-市町村への提言" 北海道自治. 11. 4-17 (1998)

    • Related Report
      1998 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 原 俊彦: "人口流出が地域の福祉、教育、生活環境、行財政に与える影響" 北海道東海大学紀要人文社会科学系. 9. 1-17 (1997)

    • Related Report
      1997 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 原 俊彦: "地域の福祉、教育、生活環境、行財政が人口流出に与える影響" 北海道東海大学紀要人文社会科学系. 10(印刷中). (1998)

    • Related Report
      1997 Annual Research Report

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Published: 1997-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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