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Study on Evaluation/Projection Model for Medium/Long Term Planning in East Asian Countries

Research Project

Project/Area Number 09630040
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field 経済政策(含経済事情)
Research InstitutionNagoya University

Principal Investigator

EZAKI Mitsuo  Nagoya University, Graduate School of International Development, Professor, 大学院・国際開発研究科, 教授 (60029915)

Project Period (FY) 1997 – 1999
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 1999)
Budget Amount *help
¥1,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,900,000)
Fiscal Year 1999: ¥500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000)
Fiscal Year 1998: ¥500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000)
Fiscal Year 1997: ¥900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000)
KeywordsCGE model / medium / long term projection / regional development / environmental problem / trade liberalization / productivity / East Asian countries / China / 他部門一般均衡 / 開発計画 / 地域モデル / 四川省 / インドネシア / 中長期計画 / 通貨危機 / 日本
Research Abstract

Focusing on China, I have developed CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) models of development planning and policies for the evaluation and projection. I have applied the models to the analysis and projection of growth, environment, trade liberalization and regional development in China. Starting from model of Vietnam, I have applied similar models also to Thailand and Indonesia, though not fully.
The research report includes three major outcomes from the methodological point of view. First, a CGE model of China is now available which can be used for long term simulations up to 2010-2020 with distinguishable 10-35 industries constructed on the basis of the latest 1997 input-output table. Second, a two-region CGE model is now available which is an extension of the natural CGE model above. It can be extended easily to more than two regions and is useful for the analysis of regional problems. Third, a new method of estimation is now available for capital stocks and total factor productivity (TFP) in both national and regional levels. Application of the new method in industry level is possible but with data constraint.
The next step of research is a comprehensive analysis based on the CGE modeling above of the three major problems which China faces now and also in the 21st century : sustainable growth, macro-control, and balanced regional development.

Report

(4 results)
  • 1999 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 1998 Annual Research Report
  • 1997 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (24 results)

All Other

All Publications (24 results)

  • [Publications] 江崎光男、Le Anh Son: "ベトナム経済の中長期展望-動学的CGE分析-"産業連関-イノベーション&I・Oテクニーク-. 第7巻3号. 4-16 (1997)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1999 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 江崎光男、他3名: "中国におけるCO_2・SO_2排出削減と環境税-CGEモデルによるシミュレーション分析-"佐野・中村(編)『国際産業連関表の作成と利用(IX)』アジア経済研究所. 91-129 (1998)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1999 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 江崎光男、孫林: "中国経済の成長会計分析(1981-1995年)"国際開発研究フォーラム. 第10巻. 1-15 (1998)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1999 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Mitsuo Ezaki: "Globalization and Economic Development : The Newly Industrialization Area of East Asia"F-G-Adams and S. Ichimura(eds.), East Asian Development : Will the East Asian Growth Miracle Survive? Praeger. 19-38 (1998)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1999 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Mitsuo Ezaki and Lin Sun: "Growth Accounting of China for National, Regional and Provincial Economies : 1981-1995"Asian Economic Journal. Vol.13, No.1. 39-72 (1999)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1999 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 孫林、江崎光男: "貿易自由化と中国経済-CGEモデルによる動学的シミュレーション-"産業連関-イノベーション&I・Oテクニーク-. 第9巻3号(近刊). (2000)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1999 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Mitsuno Ezaki and Le Anh Son: "prospects of the Vietnamese Economy : A Dynamic CGE Analysis"Inter-Industry Analysis. Vol.7, No.3. 4-16 (1997)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1999 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Mitsuno Ezaki et al.: "Reducting CO2/SO2 Emissions by Environmental Tax in China : A CGE Simulation Analysis"T.Sano and J.Nakamura(eds.), Estimation and Use of Int' Input-Output Table (IX), IDE. 91-129 (1998)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1999 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Mitsuo Ezaki and Lin Sun: "Growth Accounting of the Chinese Economy : 1981-1995"Forum of International Development Studies. No.10. 1-15 (1998)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1999 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Mitsuo Ezaki: "Globalization and Economic Development : The Newly Industrializing Area of East Asia"F.G Adams S.Ichikawa (eds.) East Asian Development : Will the East Asian Growth Miracle Survive? Praeger. 19-38 (1998)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1999 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Mitsuo Ezaki and Lin Sun: "Growth Accounting of China for National, Regional and Provincial Economies"Asian Economic Journal. Vol.13, No.1. 39-72 (1999)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1999 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Lin Sun and Mitsuo Ezaki: "Trade Libralization and the Economy of China : A Dynamic CGE Analysis"Inter-Industry Analysis. Vol.9, No.3. (2000)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1999 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Mitsuo Ezaki and Lin Sun: ""Growth Accounting of China for National,Regional and Provincial Economies:1981-95""Asian Economic Journal. Vol.13,No.1. 39-72 (1999)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 孫林、江崎光男: "中国の地域格差と生産性(TFP)"国際開発研究フォーラム. 14. 75-90 (1999)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 江崎光男、孫林、金城盛彦: "日中CDMのマクロ経済分析-炭素税導入のケーススタディ"名古屋大学大学院国際開発研究科 Discussion Paper Series. No.74. (1999)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 孫林、江崎光男: "貿易自由化と中国経済-CGEモデルによる動学的分析(1997-2010)"産業連関-イノベーション&IOテクニーク(近刊). Vol.9,No.3. (2000)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Mitsuo Ezaki and Lin Sun: ""Trade Liberalization and the Economy of China : A Dynamic CGE Analysis(1997-2010)""APEC Discussion Paper Series(APEC Study Center,Nagoya U.). No.29. (2000)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 江崎光男・孫林: "「中国経済の成長会計分析(1981-95年)」" 『国際開発研究フォーラム』. 第10巻. 1-15 (1998)

    • Related Report
      1998 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Mitsuo Ezaki: ""Globalization and Economic Develapment : The Newly Industrializing Area of East Asia"" G.Adams and S.Ichimura(eds.), East Asian Development, Praeger, London. 19-37 (1998)

    • Related Report
      1998 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Mitsuo Ezaki and Lin Sun: ""Growth Accounting of China for National, Regional and Provincical Economies : 1981-1995"" Asian Economic Journal. 近刊. (1999)

    • Related Report
      1998 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 江崎光男・金城盛彦・韻 林生・斉舒暢: "「中国におけるCO_2・SO_2排出削減と環境税-CGEモデルによるシミュレーション分析-" 『国際産業連関表の作成と利用(IX)』AIOシリーズ,アジア経済研究所. 91-127 (1998)

    • Related Report
      1998 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 江崎光男・レアンソン: "ベトナム経済の中長期展望-動学的CGE分析-" 産業連関-イノベーション&I-Oテクニック-. 7・3. 4-16 (1997)

    • Related Report
      1997 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 金城盛彦・江崎光男: "中国動学的CGEモデルの作成とその応用" 『国際産業連関表の作成と利用(VIII)』AIOシリーズ,アジア経済研究所. -. 177-220 (1997)

    • Related Report
      1997 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 江崎光男・金城盛彦・顧林生・斉舒暢: "中国におけるCO_2・SO_2排出削減と環境税-CGEモデルによるシミュレーション分析-" 『国際産業連関表の作成と利用(IX)』AIOシリーズ,アジア経済研究所. (近刊). (1998)

    • Related Report
      1997 Annual Research Report

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Published: 1997-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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