| Project/Area Number |
09680319
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Statistical science
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| Research Institution | National Institute of Public Health |
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Principal Investigator |
TANGO Toshiro National Institute of Public Health, Library, Director, 附属図書館, 館長 (70124477)
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| Project Period (FY) |
1997 – 1998
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 1998)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000)
Fiscal Year 1998: ¥1,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000)
Fiscal Year 1997: ¥1,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000)
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| Keywords | Maximum likelihood Estimation / Profile Likelihood / Confidence Interval / Regression analysis / Lognormal distribution / Escherichia coli O-157 / 最丈推定量 / プロファイル丈度 / 腸管出血性大腸菌 / 腸筋出血性大腸菌 / O-157 / 最尤推定量 |
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| Research Abstract |
This research examined new methods for estimating the date of infection in an outbreak of diarrhea caused by eating foods contaminated by some sort of foodborne pathogens such as Escherichia coli O-157 : H7. Simple methods for calculating maximum likelihood estimator and confidence interval are proposed assuming (1) a common date of infection and (2) the incubation period has a lognormal distribution. Further, to deal with the case where any probability distributions do not fit well to the observed incubation periods, data-driven regression models were proposed using several parameters abstracted from the past observed distributions of incubation periods which have been accumulated in a specially designed data base.
The validity and applicability of the proposed methods were illustrated with many past data, some of them are from recent outbreaks of Escherichia coli O-antigen 157 : H-antigen 7 in Japan.
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