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化学気候モデルを用いた太陽活動に伴う気候変化実験

Research Project

Project/Area Number 09J04486
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Fellows

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section国内
Research Field Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
Research InstitutionNational Institute for Environmental Studies

Principal Investigator

山下 陽介  独立行政法人国立環境研究所, 地球環境研究センター, 特別研究員(PD)

Project Period (FY) 2009 – 2011
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2011)
Budget Amount *help
¥2,800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,800,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000)
Fiscal Year 2010: ¥800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000)
Fiscal Year 2009: ¥1,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000)
Keywords化学気候モデル / 成層圏大気 / オゾン / 太陽11年周期変動 / 成層圏準二年周期振動(QBO)
Research Abstract

冬季北半球の成層圏には北極周辺の強い西風で特徴づけられる極渦があり、その年々変動は赤道成層圏に存在する準二年周期振動(Quasi-biennial Oscillation : QBO)や太陽活動の11年周期の影響を受けて変化する傾向にある。成層圏の極渦の強化/弱化と関連して対流圏でも北極振動(Arctic Oscillation : AO)が変化する傾向があり、対流圏の気候を予測する上で成層圏のプロセスや成層圏対流圏結合のプロセスを理解することが重要と考えられる。本研究では、化学気候モデル(Chemistry Climate Model : CCM)と客観解析データを用いて、これら太陽活動やQBOが気候に及ぼす影響について、そのプロセスの解明を目指してきた。前年度までは太陽活動とQBOの影響を個別に調べたが、今年度は2つの要因を両方考慮し、成層圏QBOが極渦変動に及ぼす影響が太陽活動に伴いどのように変わるのか、また対流圏にどのように影響するのかについて調べた。
モデル実験の結果と客観解析データを解析し、結果を50hPaのQBOの西風相と東風相、太陽活動の極大期と極小期により4つに分類し、それぞれ平均的な特徴を調べた。12月から1月にかけ、太陽活動極大期(極小期)でQBOが西風相(東風相)の場合に極渦の強化(弱化)傾向が見られた。これらのケースでは、極渦周辺においてQBOの応答と太陽活動の応答がそれぞれ似ており、QBOと太陽活動の応答が波と平均流の相互作用を受けて互いに強化されたと考えられる。また、対流圏においてもAOの変化に対応する東西風変化が見られた。客観解析データの結果では、特に日本周辺で変動が大きく初冬の気候への影響が示唆された。さらに冬季全体についても細かい時間スケールで調べると、強化(弱化)した上部成層圏の極渦が中高緯度で極向き・下向きに移動する特徴が見られた。

Report

(3 results)
  • 2011 Annual Research Report
  • 2010 Annual Research Report
  • 2009 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (36 results)

All 2012 2011 2010 2009

All Journal Article (18 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 17 results) Presentation (18 results)

  • [Journal Article] Projections of UV radiation changes in the 21st century : impact of ozone recovery and cloud effects2011

    • Author(s)
      Bais, A.F., …, H.Akiyoshi, …, Y.Yamashita
    • Journal Title

      Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

      Volume: 11 Issue: 15 Pages: 7533-7545

    • DOI

      10.5194/acp-11-7533-2011

    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Using transport diagnostics to understand chemistry climate model ozone simulations2011

    • Author(s)
      Strahan, S.E., …, H.Akiyoshi, …, Y.Yamashita
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Geophysical Research

      Volume: 116 Issue: D17

    • DOI

      10.1029/2010jd015360

    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Dynamical response in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude and high-latitude winter to the QBO simulated by CCSR/NIES CCM2011

    • Author(s)
      Yamashita, Y., H.Akiyoshi, M.Takahashi
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Geophysical Research

      Volume: 116

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Multimodel climate and variability of the stratosphere2011

    • Author(s)
      Butchart, N., H.Akiyoshi, Y.Yamashita
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Geophysical Research

      Volume: 116

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Ozone and temperature response of a chemistry climate model to the solar cycle and sea surface temperature2010

    • Author(s)
      Yamashita, Y., K.Sakamoto, H.Akiyoshi, M.Takahashi, T.Nagashima, L.B.Zhou
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Geophysical Research

      Volume: 115

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Recovery of stratospheric ozone in calculations by the Center for Climate System Research/National Institute for Environmental Studies chemistry-climate mode under the CCMVa1-REF2 scenario and no-climate-change run2010

    • Author(s)
      Akiyoshi, H., Y.Yamashita, K.Sakamoto, L.B.Zhou, T.Imamura
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Geophysical Research

      Volume: 115

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Review of the formulation of present-generation stratospheric chemistry-climate models and associated external forcings2010

    • Author(s)
      Morgenstern, O., H.Akiyoshi, Y.Yamashita
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Geophysical Research

      Volume: 115

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Sensitivity of 21st century stratospheric ozone to greenhouse gas scenarios2010

    • Author(s)
      Eyring, V., H.Akiyoshi, Y.Yamashita
    • Journal Title

      Geophysical Research Letters

      Volume: 37

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Anthropogenic forcing of the Northern Annular Mode in CCMVa1-2 Models2010

    • Author(s)
      Morgenstern, O., H.Akiyoshi, Y.Yamashita
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Geophysical Research

      Volume: 115

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVa1-2 models2010

    • Author(s)
      Eyring, V., H.Akiyoshi, Y.Yamashita
    • Journal Title

      Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

      Volume: 10 Pages: 9451-9472

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century2010

    • Author(s)
      Charlton-Perez, A.J., H.Akiyoshi, Y.Yamashita
    • Journal Title

      Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

      Volume: 10 Pages: 9473-9486

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Impact of stratospheric ozone on Southern Hemisphere circulation change : A multimodel assessment2010

    • Author(s)
      Son, S.-W., H.Akiyoshi, Y.Yamashita
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Geophysical Research

      Volume: 115

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Multimodel assessment of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere : Extratropics2010

    • Author(s)
      Hegglin, M.I., H.Akiyoshi, Y.Yamashita
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Geophysical Research

      Volume: 115

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis2010

    • Author(s)
      Austin, J., H.Akiyoshi, Y.Yamashita
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Geophysical Research

      Volume: 115

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Chemistry-climate model simulations of red spring Antarctic ozone2010

    • Author(s)
      Austin, J., H.Akiyoshi, Y.Yamashita
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Geophysical Research

      Volume: 115

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Multimodel assessment of the factors driving stratospheric ozone evolution over the 21st century2010

    • Author(s)
      Oman, L.D., H.Akiyoshi, Y.Yamashita, J.R.Ziemke
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Geophysical Research

      Volume: 115

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 成層圏過程とその気候における役割(SPARC)第4回総会報告2010

    • Author(s)
      田口正和, 井上誠, 山下陽介
    • Journal Title

      天気

      Volume: 57(6) Pages: 399-404

    • NAID

      110007642325

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Influence of lower stratospheric ozone variation on tropospheric temperature and mean meridional circulation in the Northern Hemisphere summer2009

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, T., H.Akiyoshi, Y.Yamashita
    • Journal Title

      Geophysical Research Letters 36

    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] CCSR/NIES CCM simulations for the differences in the Northern Hemisphere winter circulation associated with the 11-year solar cycle and the QBO2012

    • Author(s)
      Yamashita, Y.
    • Organizer
      Workshop on Stratospheric Sudden Warming and its Role in Weather and Climate Variations
    • Place of Presentation
      京都大学(京都府)
    • Year and Date
      2012-02-22
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Effects of the 11-year Solar Cycle and the Quasi-biennial Oscillation on the Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere and Troposphere in the JRA-25 Reanalysis Data and CCSR/NIES CCM2012

    • Author(s)
      Yamashita, Y.
    • Organizer
      The 2nd Nagoya Workshop on the Relationship between Solar Activity and Climate Changes
    • Place of Presentation
      名古屋大学(愛知県)
    • Year and Date
      2012-01-17
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 化学気候モデルを用いた太陽11年周期とQBOの北半球中高緯度大気への影響の考察2011

    • Author(s)
      山下陽介
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2011年度秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      名古屋大学(愛知県)
    • Year and Date
      2011-11-17
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 化学気候モデルを用いた成層圏QBOの中高緯度大気への影響に関する研究2011

    • Author(s)
      山下陽介
    • Organizer
      第8回「異常気象と長期変動」研究集会
    • Place of Presentation
      京都大学(京都府)
    • Year and Date
      2011-11-08
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] CCSR/NIES CCMを用いた成層圏QBOに対する中高緯度大気の応答の研究2011

    • Author(s)
      山下陽介
    • Organizer
      2011年度南極昭和基地大型大気レーダー計画(PANSY)研究集会
    • Place of Presentation
      東京大学(東京都)
    • Year and Date
      2011-08-26
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Northern Hemisphere winter response to the QBO simulated by CCSR/NIES CCM2011

    • Author(s)
      Yamashita, Y.
    • Organizer
      Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS) 2011
    • Place of Presentation
      Taipei International Convention Centre (Taipei, Taiwan)
    • Year and Date
      2011-08-10
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] CCSR/NIES CCM simulations for Northern Hemisphere winter responses to the QBO2011

    • Author(s)
      Yamashita, Y.
    • Organizer
      IUGG 2011
    • Place of Presentation
      Melbourne Convention & Exhibition Centre (Melbourne, Australia)
    • Year and Date
      2011-07-05
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The lower stratospheric ozone and temperature response to the solar cycle calculated by the CCSR/NIES CCM2010

    • Author(s)
      Yousuke Yamashita
    • Organizer
      AGU 2010 The Meeting of the Americas
    • Place of Presentation
      Rafain Hotel and Convention Center (Foz do Iguassu, Brasil)
    • Year and Date
      2010-08-12
    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The dynamical response of ozone and temperature in the lower stratosphere to the 11-year solar cycle simulated by the CCSR/NIES CCM2010

    • Author(s)
      Yousuke Yamashita
    • Organizer
      SCOSTEP Symposium
    • Place of Presentation
      Seminaris Campus Hotel Berlin Science & Conference Center (Berlin, Germany)
    • Year and Date
      2010-07-15
    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 化学気候モデルを用いた太陽11年周期変動の下部成層圏への影響の推定2010

    • Author(s)
      山下陽介
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2010年大会
    • Place of Presentation
      幕張メッセ国際会議場(千葉県)
    • Year and Date
      2010-05-27
    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The response of lower stratospheric ozone concentration and temperature to the 11-year solar cycle calculated by the CCSR/NIES CCM2010

    • Author(s)
      Yamashita Yousuke
    • Organizer
      SOLARIS Workshop
    • Place of Presentation
      Potsdam, Germany
    • Year and Date
      2010-03-10
    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 太陽11年周期変動に伴う成層圏大気の応答2009

    • Author(s)
      山下陽介
    • Organizer
      2009年度日本気象学会秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      アクロス福岡(福岡県)
    • Year and Date
      2009-11-26
    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 太陽11年周期変動に伴う成層圏大気の応答2009

    • Author(s)
      山下陽介
    • Organizer
      第7回「異常気象と長期変動」研究集会
    • Place of Presentation
      京都大学宇治キャンパス(京都府)
    • Year and Date
      2009-10-30
    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Ozone and temperature response of a chemistry climate model to the solar cycle2009

    • Author(s)
      Yamashita Yousuke
    • Organizer
      IGAC-SPARC Joint Workshop
    • Place of Presentation
      Kyoto
    • Year and Date
      2009-10-25
    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The sensitivity of chemistry climate model results to the solar cycle and volcanic aerosol during 1980-20002009

    • Author(s)
      Yamashita Yousuke
    • Organizer
      MOCA-09, the IAMAS/IAPSO/IACS 2009 Joint Assembly
    • Place of Presentation
      Montreal, Canada
    • Year and Date
      2009-07-20
    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The stratospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle2009

    • Author(s)
      Yamashita Yousuke
    • Organizer
      The University Allied Workshop on Climate and Environmental Changes 2009
    • Place of Presentation
      Seoul, Korea
    • Year and Date
      2009-06-22
    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Response of the CCSR/NIES chemistry-climate model to the solar cycle and volcanic aerosol during 1980-20002009

    • Author(s)
      Yamashita Yousuke
    • Organizer
      CCMVal 2009 Workshop
    • Place of Presentation
      Toronto, Canada
    • Year and Date
      2009-06-02
    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 化学気候モデルを用いた1980-2000年における太陽変動と火山変動の分離実験2009

    • Author(s)
      山下陽介
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2009年大会
    • Place of Presentation
      幕張メッセ(千葉県)
    • Year and Date
      2009-05-21
    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2009-04-01   Modified: 2024-03-26  

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