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Development of Unified Demand Forecast Models for National Land-use Planning

Research Project

Project/Area Number 10450186
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B).

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field 交通工学・国土計画
Research InstitutionTOHOKU UNIVERSITY

Principal Investigator

MORISUGI Hisayoshi  Guraduate School of Information Sciences, Tohoku University, Professor, 大学院・情報科学研究科, 教授 (80026161)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) UEDA Takayuki  Faculty of Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Associat Professor, 工学部, 助教授 (20232754)
HAYASHIYAMA Yasuhisa  Guraduate School of Economics, Tohoku University, Associate Professor, 大学院・経済学研究科, 助教授 (20260531)
TOKUNAGA Yoshiyuki  Guraduate School of Information Sciences, Tohoku University, Associate Professor, 大学院・情報科学研究科, 助教授 (40180137)
Project Period (FY) 1998 – 2000
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2000)
Budget Amount *help
¥8,000,000 (Direct Cost: ¥8,000,000)
Fiscal Year 2000: ¥2,000,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,000,000)
Fiscal Year 1999: ¥3,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000)
Fiscal Year 1998: ¥2,700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000)
KeywordsDemand Forecast / national landuse Plan / Microeconomics / Benefit Evaluation / Value of Time / Existing Value / Behavioral Modeling / Transportation / 需要関数 / 時間価値関数 / 土地需要 / 空間一般均衡分析モデル / 不確実性
Research Abstract

This study aims to develop a set of practical demand forecast models based on a unified micro-economic behavioral principle so that it is possible to estimate associated benefits by using the developed behavioral models. The study results can be summarized as follows :
(1) The consumption of various goods and services such as transportation and shopping, etc., requires time. Therefore, it needs to know the characteristics of the value of time. By making a simple consumer model, this study succeeded in the sensitivity analysis to show the influences of charge in price level, required time, total available time and income level on the value of time. This point has not been succeeded by the previous literature.
(2) In order to apply the theory mentioned above to the practical transportation forecast, it is necessary to change the conventional method which forecasts given the value of time, to the method which is able to simultaneously forecast the demand and value of time. This study propos … More ed such a practical simultaneous forecast method by adopting CES utility function and showed its practicability.
(3) By surveying present practical urban land-use models over the world, this study proposed a basic framework for the practical models on the micro-economic foundations, functional forms and assumptions and a pply this framework to theoretically express the reasons why the various results come from the various models.
(4) It is said that theoretically there are not only a use value but also an existing value for any element of environment. This study showed that by adopting an appropriate utility functional form and derive its demand functions, it is possible to estimate amounts and their shares of the use value and the existing value for any element of environment by observing people's behaviours.
(5) This study proposed an manual for emerment physical distribution plan and its usefulness and practicability. Specifically it suggests that it is important to maintain the speed of transportation by imposing some regulations in order to simultaneouslv achieve the minimization of total time and the longest time. Less

Report

(4 results)
  • 2000 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 1999 Annual Research Report
  • 1998 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (53 results)

All Other

All Publications (53 results)

  • [Publications] 上田孝行,堤盛人: "わが国における近年の土地利用モデルに関する総合フレームについて"土木学会論文集. No.625/IV44. 65-78 (1999)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2000 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 小池淳司,上田孝行,冨田貴弘: "高齢者対策としての社会資本整備の国土構造に与える影響分析"土木計画学研究・論文集. No.16. 201-206 (1999)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2000 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 武藤慎一,上田孝行,稲垣貴政: "地域特性と地域相互作用を考慮した地域政策の経済分析"土木計画学研究・論文集. No.16. 279-288 (1999)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2000 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 木村俊宏,徳永幸之: "地下鉄沿線における女性の平日買物行動の変化分析"都市計画論文集. No.34. 739-744 (1999)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2000 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 浦部晶彦,森杉壽芳,河野達仁: "時間制約を明示的に考慮した私的交通行動モデル"土木計画学研究・講演集. No.22(2). 667-670 (1999)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2000 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 林山泰久,森杉壽芳,小抜和裕: "顕示選好データによる非利用価値の経済的評価とその精度"環境システム研究. Vol.27. 33-44 (1999)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2000 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Hisa Morisugi: "Evaluation methodologies of transportation projects in Japan"Transport Policy No.1. 7. 35-40 (2000)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2000 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Yoshitsugu Hayashi,Hisa Morisugi: "International comparison of background concept and methodology of transportation project appraisal"Transport Policy No.1. 7. 73-88 (2000)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2000 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 首藤敦,徳永幸之: "災害時緊急物資輸送計画に影響を与える要因の分析"土木計画学研究・講演集. Np.23(2). 541-544 (2000)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2000 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 上田孝行,小森俊文,森杉壽芳: "古典的消費者行動モデルによる便益計測手法の比較研究"土木計画学研究・論文集. No.17. 187-194 (2000)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2000 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 河野達仁,森杉壽芳: "時間価値に関する理論的考察-私的交通のケース-"土木学会論文集. No.639/IV-48. 53-64 (2000)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2000 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 上田孝行,高木義朗,森杉壽芳: "社会資本整備の費用便益分析における事業効果と税収変化に関する一考察"土木学会論文集. No.653/IV-48. 77-84 (2000)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2000 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Takayuki Ueda, Morito Tsutsumi: "A UNFIED FRAMEWORK OF LAND USE MODELS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN JAPAN"JOURNAL OF INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT. No.625/IV44. 65-78 (1999)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2000 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Atsushi Koike, Takayuki Ueda, Takahiro Tomita: "A System of two cities Model with Age Specific Local public Goods"INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING REVIEW. Vol.16. 201-206 (1999)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2000 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Shinichi Muto, Takayuki Ueda, Takamasa Inagaki: "Economic analysis of regional policies from the point of regional characteristic and rural-urban interaction"INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING REVIEW. Vol.16. 279-288 (1999)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2000 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Toshihiro Kimura, Yoshiyuki Tokunaga: "Analysis of Change in Women' s Weekday Shopping Beh avior in the Area along a Subway"CITY PLANNING REVEW. No.34. 739-744 (1999)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2000 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Akihiko Urabe, Hisayoshi Morisugi, Tatsuhito Kono: "Private Trip Demand Model Formulation With Time Constraints"Proceedings of Infrastructure Planning. No.22(2). 667-670 (1999)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2000 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Yasuhisa Hayashiyama, Hisayoshi Morisugi, Kazuhiro Onuki: "An Economic Evaluation of Non-use Value by Revealed Preference Data and Its Accuracy"Environmental Systems Research. Vol.27. 33-44 (1999)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2000 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Hisayoshi Horisugi: "Evaluation methodologies of transportation projects in Japan"Transport Policy. Vol.7, No.1. 35-40 (2000)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2000 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Yoshitusugu Hayashi, Hisa Morisugi: "International comparison of background concept and methodology of transportation project appraisal"Transport Policy. Vol.7, No.1. 73-88 (2000)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2000 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Atushi Suto, Yoshiyuki Tokunaga: "An Analysis of Impact Factors to Urgent Transportation Planning in case of Earthquake Disasters"Infrastructure Planning. No.23(2). 541-544 (2000)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2000 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Ueda Takayuki, Komori Toshifumi, Hisayoshi Morisugi: "The Comparison of Benefit Evaluation Methods by the Classical Consumer's Behavior Model"NFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING REVIEW. Vo1.17. 187-194 (2000)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2000 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Tatsuhito Kono, Hisayoshi Morisugi: "THEORETICAL EXAMINATION ON VALUE OF TIME FOR PRIVATE TRIPS"JOURNAL OF INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT. No.639/IV46. 53-64 (2000)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2000 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Ueda Takayuki, Akisyoshi Takagi, Hisayoshi Morisugi: "A STUDY ON THE FLOW EFFECTS AND TAX REVENUE CHANGES IN COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENTS"JOURNAL OF INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT. No.653/IV48. 77-84 (2000)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2000 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 橋本浩史,徳永幸之: "通勤および業務需要から見た都心部循環バスシステムの検討"土木計画学研究・講演集No.22(1). 487-490 (1999)

    • Related Report
      2000 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 上田孝行,筧文彦: "空間経済の開放性に応じた公共投資の便益帰着分析"土木計画学研究・講演集No.23(1). 91-94 (2000)

    • Related Report
      2000 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 上田孝行,小森俊文,森杉壽芳: "古典的消費者行動モデルによる便益計測手法の比較研究"土木計画学研究・論文集No.17. 187-194 (2000)

    • Related Report
      2000 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 河野達仁,森杉壽芳: "時間価値に関する理論的考察-私的交通のケース-"土木学会論文集No.639/IV-46. 53-64 (2000)

    • Related Report
      2000 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 上田孝行,高木朗義,森杉壽芳: "社会資本整備の費用便益分析における事業効果と税収変化に関する一考察"土木学会論文集No.653/IV-48. 77-84 (2000)

    • Related Report
      2000 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Hisa Morisugi,Yoshitsugu Hayashi: "Editorial"Transport Policy No.1. 7. 1-2 (2000)

    • Related Report
      2000 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Hisa Morisugi: "Evaluation methodologies of transportation projects in Japan"Transport Policy No.1. 7. 35-40 (2000)

    • Related Report
      2000 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Yoshitsugu Hayashi,Hisa Morisugi: "International comparison of background concept and methodology of transportation project appraisal"Transport Policy No.1. 7. 73-88 (2000)

    • Related Report
      2000 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 上田孝行、堤盛人: "わが国における近年の土地利用モデルに関する総合フレームについて"土木学会論文集. No.625/IV44. 65-78 (1999)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 河野達仁、森杉壽芳: "時間価値に関する理論的考察一私的交通のケースー"土木学会論文集. No.639/IV46. 53-64 (2000)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 小池淳司、上田孝行、冨田貴弘: "高齢者対策としての杜会資本整備の国土構造に与える影響分析"土木計画学研究・論文集. No.16. 201-206 (1999)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 小池淳司、上田孝行、三浦光俊: "人的資本形成から見た都市群システム分析"土木計画学研究・論文集. No.16. 217-224 (1999)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 武藤慎一、上田孝行、稲垣貴政: "地域特性と地域相互作用を考慮した地域政策の経済分析"土木計画学研究・論文集. No.16. 279-288 (1999)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 木村俊宏、徳永幸之: "地下鉄沿線における女性の平日買物行動の変化分析"都市計画論文集. No34. 739-744 (1999)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 上田孝行、福本潤也: "空港整備の費用便益分析のための基礎的考察"土木計画学研究・講演集. No.22(1). 81-84 (1999)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 木村俊宏、徳永幸之: "郊外型商業施設立地による買物行動変化分析"土木計画学研究・講演集. No.22(1). 109-112 (1999)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 橋本浩史、徳永幸之: "通勤および業務需要から見た都市部循環バスシステムの検討"土木計画学研究・講演集. No.22(1). 487-490 (1999)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 小池淳司、上田孝行、宮下光宏: "旅客トリップを明示したSCGEモデルの試み"土木計画学研究・講演集. No.22(2). 107-110 (1999)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 冨田貴弘、武藤慎一、上田孝行: "応用都市経済モデルによる都市交通整備政策の影響分析"土木計画学研究・講演集. No.22(2). 119-122 (1999)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 浦部晶彦、森杉壽芳、河野達仁: "時間制約を明示的に考慮した私的交通行動モデル"土木計画学研究・講演集. No.22(2). 667-670 (1999)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 上田孝之,高木朗義,森杉壽芳: "災害脆弱地区の都市整備便益について" 第三回都市直下地震災害総合シンポジウム論文集. 481-484 (1998)

    • Related Report
      1998 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 武藤慎一,上田孝之,金沢敏徳: "都市環境政策評価のための交通・立地統合均衡モデルの開発" 土木計画学研究・講演集. No.21. 455-458 (1998)

    • Related Report
      1998 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 上田孝之,近藤浩治,森杉壽芳,小森俊文,未富義章: "消費者余剰による便益計測手法の比較研究" 土木計画学研究・講演集. No.21. 741-744 (1998)

    • Related Report
      1998 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 上田孝之,浅野雄史: "Repeater性を考慮した交通需要分析" 土木計画学研究・講演集. No.21. 621-624 (1998)

    • Related Report
      1998 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 河野達仁,森杉壽芳: "時間価値関数に関する理論的考察-私的交通のケース-" 土木計画学研究・講演集. No.21(1). 37-40 (1998)

    • Related Report
      1998 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 林山泰久: "非市場財の存在価値" 土木計画学研究・講演集. No.21(2). 35-48 (1998)

    • Related Report
      1998 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 森杉壽芳,林山泰久,丹野智之: "不確実性下における便益定義の計量比較" 土木計画学研究・講演集. No.21(2). 447-450 (1998)

    • Related Report
      1998 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 木村俊宏,徳永幸之: "仙台都市圏における買物交通の世代別変化分析" 東北支部技術研究発表会講演概要. 388-389 (1999)

    • Related Report
      1998 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 浦部晶彦,森杉壽芳,河野達仁: "時間制約を明示的に考慮した私的交通行動モデル" 東北支部技術研究発表会講演概要. 394-395 (1999)

    • Related Report
      1998 Annual Research Report

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Published: 1998-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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