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The Methodology of Ensuing Safety and Risk Assessment for Prevention of Marine Accidents Originating from Human Error

Research Project

Project/Area Number 10450380
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field 船舶工学
Research InstitutionKYUSHU UNIVERSITY

Principal Investigator

FUKUCHI Nobuyoshi  Kyushu University, Faculty of Engineering, Professor, 工学研究科, 教授 (80039677)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) THOMAS george  Osaka Prefecture University, Faculty of Engineering, Associate Professor, 工学部, 講師 (40243919)
HU changhong  Kyushu University, Faculty of Engineering, Research Associate, 工学研究科, 助手 (20274532)
SHINODA Takeshi  Kyushu University, Faculty of Engineering, Associate Professor, 工学研究科, 助教授 (80235548)
Project Period (FY) 1998 – 1999
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 1999)
Budget Amount *help
¥7,400,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,400,000)
Fiscal Year 1999: ¥2,700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000)
Fiscal Year 1998: ¥4,700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,700,000)
KeywordsReliability analysis / Human error / Risk assessment / Functional design / Safe evacuation / Psychological intelligence process / Walking model / Automatic system / 人的過誤対策 / 危険度 / 思考遮断 / 多区画火災 / フィールドモデル / 火災拡大条件
Research Abstract

The development of system reliability analysis of marine accidents originating from human error is regarded as being of major importance in recent years. This study, that consists of the following three parts, presents the methodology of ensuing safety and risk assessment for prevention of marine accidents originating from human error.
(1) The first part presents an analytical method for the estimation of the incidence probability of accidents during the function design of marine systems. Firstly, the qualitative analysis of the reliability of the functional system under design is carried out using the fault tree (FT) . Next, the probability of human error and the frequency of device failure in the functional system are decided by using a degree of apprehensive, which is defined as similar to the sensible scale based on the experience and ingenuity of engineers. Thirdly, the selection of improved items are executed by the calculation using Boolian logic to reduce the risk of accident pr … More obability in the functional system. The effects of adapting countermeasures are predicted quantitatively in the calculation based on the fault tree analysis and the fuzzy theory.
Furthermore, the prediction way of effectiveness to reduce the risk by suitable countermeasures in specified functional system, and the method of risk assessment by means of minimizing of the total cost expectation or the background risk are proposed. As a practical example, the risk evaluation analyses for preventing from the deaths in the marine fire are investigated using the proposed method.
(2) It may be difficult to establish the methodology for safe evacuation in the case of outbreak of a marine fire, by originating in the intricacies of the spread phenomena and the uncertain behaviors of evacuation based on human factors without uniformity.
Hence, the evacuation behaviors can be predicted by using the proposed walking model with individual capacity of visible length and avoidance for obstacles. Further, the mathematical model of psychological intelligence process in an emergency is contrived herein, in which the evacuation movement is simulated in the consideration of the decrease of walking speed and the occurrence of self-isolation in psychological action according to the magnitudes of accident stimulus. By applying these models to common spaces in a dinning cruise ship, taking account of the human factors with psychological action is rather valued in the safe evacuation system and the validity of the proposed models can be confirmed.
The evacuation movement can be predicted considering the decrease of walking speed and the occurrence of self-isolation in psychological action with lowering smoke layer by the proposed method. The measured index of risk for the evacuation system is defined by using the results of a simultaneous simulation of smoke diffusion and evacuation. This risk index mat be used the comparison between various safety systems and its validity is confirmed using model of a common space in a typical cruise ship.
(3) The redundancy system for safe navigation and cargo management be aimed at the development of functional devices ensuring safety and reliability. Moreover, the methodology of system design for the safe navigation system and reliable cargo handling system, consisted of reliability on hardware and human factors, should be desirably instituted by grasping the personnel behavior based on the associated in simulated operation and investigation of human errors. A methodology of ensuring safety and reliability for the design of ship modernizing system is described in this paper. Further, an estimation method on the probability of human error and the frequency of device in the functional system is proposed by using an apprehensive degree, which is defined as similar to the sense scale based on the experience of skilled ship operators. As a practical example, the reliability analysis on automatic cargo handling system developing newly are carried out using our proposed method. Less

Report

(3 results)
  • 1999 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 1998 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (17 results)

All Other

All Publications (17 results)

  • [Publications] Nobuyoshi Fukuchi, 他2名: "Relability Analysis for Preventatio of Marine Accidents Originating from Human Error"Proc. of 17th Conference of Maritime Transportation, Shipbuilding and Offshore, Rio de Janeiro. (1998)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1999 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 福地信義、他2名: "人的要因を考慮した火災時の避難安全性に関する研究"日本造船学会論文集. 第184号. 583-594 (1998)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1999 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 福地信義、他2名: "人的要因を考慮した安全システムのリスク解析手法について-避難安全システムへの適用-"西部造船会会報. 第98号. 279-291 (1999)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1999 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 福地信義、他2名: "緊急時の心理過程と歩行モデルによる避難行動の解析"日本造船学会論文集. 第186号. 545-558 (1999)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1999 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 福地信義、他3名: "船舶の近代化における安全性・信頼性確保のための安全論とシステム設計"西部造船会会報. 第99号. 365-378 (2000)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1999 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Nobuyoshi Fukichi, Takeshi Shinoda, Toshi-ichi Tachibana: "Reliability Analysis for Prevention of Marine Accidents Originating from Human Error"Proc. of 17ィイD1thィエD1 Conference of Marine Transportation, Shipbuilding and Offshore, Rio deJaneiro. (1998)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1999 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Nobuyoshi Fukichi, Takeshi Shinoda, Teruyuki Imamura: "Establishing the Methodology for Safe Evacuation in Event of a Marine Fire"Journal of Society of Naval Architects of Japan. No. 184. 583-594 (1998)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1999 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Nobuyoshi Fukichi, Takeshi Shinoda, Takahiro Ono: "Establishing the Methodology of Risk Assessment Analysis for Prevention of Marine Accidents Originating from Human Error - Applied to Safe Evacuation System -"Trans. of the west-Japan Society of Naval Architects. No. 98. 279-291 (1999)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1999 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Nobuyoshi Fukichi, Kiyofumi Koyama, Takeshi Shinoda: "An Analysis of Evacuation Behavior by using the Walking Model with Psychological Intelligence Process in an Emergency"Journal of Society of Naval Architects of Japan. No. 186. 545-558 (1999)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1999 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Nobuyoshi Fukichi, Norio Shimono, Miko Koga, Takeshi Shinoda: "A Methodology of Ensuring Safety and Reliability for the Design of Ship Modernizing System"Trans. of the west-Japan Society of Naval Architects. No.. 365-378 (2000)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1999 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Nobuyoshi Fukuchi, 他2名: "Reliability Analysis for Prevention of Marine Accidents Originating from Human Error"Proc. of 17^<th> Conference of Maritime Transportation, Shipbuilding and Offshore, Rio de Janeiro. (1998)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 福地信義、他2名: "人的要因を考慮した火災時の避難安全性に関する研究"日本造船学会論文集. 第184号. 583-594 (1998)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 福地信義、他2名: "人的要因を考慮した安全システムのリスク解析手法について-避難安全システムへの適用-"西部造船会会報. 第98号. 279-291 (1999)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 福地信義、他2名: "緊急時の心理過程と歩行モデルによる避難行動の解析"日本造船学会論文集. 第186号. 545-558 (1999)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 福地信義、他3名: "船舶の近代化における安全性・信頼性確保のための安全論とシステム設計"西部造船会会報. 第99号. 365-378 (2000)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 福地信義,篠田岳思,今村照幸: "人的要因を考慮した火災時の避難安全性に関する研究" 日本造船学会論文集. 第184号. 583-594 (1998)

    • Related Report
      1998 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 福地信義,胡長洪: "船舶火災の拡大条件と火災伝播の現象解析(その2)" 日本造船学会論文集. 第185号 印刷中. (1999)

    • Related Report
      1998 Annual Research Report

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Published: 1998-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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