| Project/Area Number |
10470500
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B).
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Medical sociology
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| Research Institution | National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies |
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Principal Investigator |
MATSUURA Hiroyuki National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Associate Professor, 政策研究プロジェクトセンター, 助教授 (30262116)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
NAKANO Masahiro University of Occupational Environmental Health, Dep. of Biomedical and Environmental Technology, Associate Professor, 医学部, 助教授 (70141744)
IMACHI Kou University of Tokyo, Graduate school of Medicine, Professor, 大学院・医学系研究科, 教授 (10010076)
FUJIMASA Iwao National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Dep. of Policy Studies, Professor, 大学院・政策研究科, 教授 (30010028)
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| Project Period (FY) |
1998 – 2000
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2000)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥5,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,900,000)
Fiscal Year 2000: ¥1,100,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000)
Fiscal Year 1999: ¥900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 1998: ¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,900,000)
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| Keywords | quantum physics / quadratic derivative / fuzzy derivative and fuzzy integral / prediction of disease / real potential and imaginary potential / politics operator / 有病率 / 安定化 / 地方交付税 / 主成分分析 / ファジーハミルトニアン / 出生率 / 多変量解析 / 人口予測方程式 / ファジー数 / 量子システム分析法 / 演算子 / ファジー的決定法 / ファジー波動関数 / 複雑系 / ハミルトニアン / ロバスト性 |
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| Research Abstract |
A new method is proposed to analyze social systems from their macroscopic point of view. In this method, the probability distribution is requested to satisfy the quadratic derivative equation of Schrondinger-type. The quadratic derivative in the basic equation is suitable to treat of fuzziness of data and to exclude sharp changes in the distribution curve. In order to treat properly the ambiguity of the data, we introduce fuzzy derivative and fuzzy integration. This fuzzy integration is used to predict the ambiguity range of the predicted values. Several example shows that the method works well to give a smoothed curve going through the data points. The method is also applied to the prediction of medical in Japan. Taking the age distribution of disease as examples, we show that the real potentials represent the structural characteristics of stationary distribution and the imaginary potentials indicate the time-change of the absolute value and the shape of distribution. Interactions between distribution are also introduced and it is shown that its approximate solution includes a simple relation of the net transfer. An idea of politics operator is proposed as a tool of system analysis and the usefulness is shown.
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