| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,100,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,100,000)
Fiscal Year 2000: ¥800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000)
Fiscal Year 1999: ¥900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 1998: ¥1,400,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000)
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| Research Abstract |
A well-designed system for evacuations after warning issues is essentially necessary to reduce human loss. A lack of tools to evaluate an evacuation system lets such problem remain for long time. The objective of the present study is to develop the evacuation model simulating the behavior of human and vehicle by using the network model in the case of a tsunami attack. One of important functions in a model is to include route self-selecting/alternative model at several crossings by interacting and compiling human behaviors and tsunami impact, road condition, and people recognition of geometry. And walking and vehicle speed with function of density and condition on a road should be also included into a model. The three kinds of field studies were carried out ; (1) determination of route self-selecting/alternative at the area, (2) human behaviors of individuals and group on a beach, and (3) evacuation drill to know the human behavior and judgment. The results from these studies are includ
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ed into the model. The validity of the model is examined in the case of the 1993 Hokkaidonansei-oki tsunami at the Aonae area, Okushiri, Hokkaido. The number of survivors and casualties estimated by the model shows good agreement with the reported and the main routes for evacuation to the hill simulated by the model are same as those by the eyewitness accounts. Another aim of the present study is, therefore, to develop the model to estimate the starting time of evacuation at several stages by using the quantification method like multi-variable analysis. The parameters in the model, called a category scores, could be determined by the data on the tsunami evacuations in the past. Provided the earthquake intensity, location, experiences and time zone at each region, the ratio of the evacuation and its starting time can be estimated and be compared with the tsunami arrival time, which is useful to evaluate the present system against the tsunami attack. We applied the model to Miyagi prefecture along the coast and discuss the risk of the tsunamiattacks. Less
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