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On the Statistical Prediction of Sea-margin

Research Project

Project/Area Number 11450384
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field 船舶工学
Research InstitutionKyushu University

Principal Investigator

SHINKAI Akiji  Kyushu University, Graduate School of Engineering, Professor, 大学院・工学研究院, 教授 (10112301)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) YAMAGUCHI Satoru  Kyushu University, RIAM, Research Associate, 応用力学研究所, 助手 (00253542)
ISEKI Toshio  Tokyo Univ. of Mercantile, Merchant Marine, Associate Professor, 商船学部, 助教授 (70212959)
KAJIWARA Hiroyuki  Kyushu University, Graduate School of Engineering, Professor, 大学院・工学研究院, 教授 (30114862)
Project Period (FY) 1999 – 2001
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2001)
Budget Amount *help
¥11,400,000 (Direct Cost: ¥11,400,000)
Fiscal Year 2001: ¥1,000,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000)
Fiscal Year 2000: ¥2,400,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,400,000)
Fiscal Year 1999: ¥8,000,000 (Direct Cost: ¥8,000,000)
KeywordsSea-Margin / Probability Theory / Propeller Racing / Deck wetness / Satellite Information / Wave frequency / Ship motions / High-speed boat / 衛星情報 / 波浪発現確率 / 長期波浪発現確率 / 実船実験
Research Abstract

This research project deals with the statistical prediction of sea-margin because of seasonal effect (wind and waves) in the case the sea-margin is represented by means of speed loss due to weather. The estimating method of speed loss is discussed on the basis of the quasi-probability theory from the viewpoint of propeller racing and deck wetness. The essential algorithm of the statistical prediction for propeller racing and deck wetness are reconstructed by using the probabilistic procedure of time lasting period during which random variable exceeds a value. The algorithms are set up to build the estimating method of speed loss.
On the basis of the algorithms, a series of numerical calculations are executed for 150m class container ships with multi-screw propellers. The long-term statistical trend of ship responses (propeller racing, deck wetness etc.) in ocean waves are examined by using satellite information wave data. And a series of experiments are executed with a high-speed boat (Kyushu University fisheries research ship) at sea in order to survey an appraisal of the algorithms.
It is certified that the ship responses (propeller racing, deck wetness, ship accelerations etc.) are predicted. However, it is slightly difficult to combine both estimating algorithm of speed loss and the algorithms (propeller racing, deck wetness) for the reason of complexity of those. Further investigations for reconstruction of the algorithms are necessary to estimate sea-margin.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2001 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 2000 Annual Research Report
  • 1999 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (21 results)

All Other

All Publications (21 results)

  • [Publications] 新開 明二: "内航タンカーの乾舷の検討について"西部造船会会報. 第98号. 79-88 (1999)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Jong Heon PARk: "On the Prediction of Propeller Racing of Ships in a Seaway"Proceedings of JAKOM '99. 435-442 (1999)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 井関 俊夫: "船体動揺パラメータのオンライン推定について"日本造船学会論文集. 第186号. 107-113 (1999)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 窪田 徹也: "高精度船体運動計測システムの開発-九軸&方位センサーの利用とデータ収集システムの構築-"西部造船会々報. 第101号. 73-80 (2001)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 松尾 宏平: "衛星ERSのレーダー波高計による海面の観測に関する研究-衛星波浪情報データベース作成の一試み-"西部造船会々報. 第102号. 45-53 (2001)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 朴 鐘憲: "荒海を航行する船のプロペラレーシング推定に関する"西部造船会々報. 第102号. 141-150 (2001)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Shinkai, A.: "A Decision Procedure for the Freeboard of a Coastal Chemical Tanker (in Japanese)"Transactions of the West-Japan Society of Naval Architects. Vol. 98. 79-88 (1999)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] PARK, Jong Heon: "On the Prediction of Propeller Racing of Ships in a Seaway"Proceedings of JAKOM '99. 435-442 (1999)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Iseki, T.: "On-line Identification of the Ship Motion Parameters (in Japanese)"Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Japan. 107-113 (1999)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kubota, T.: "A Measuring System with a High Degree of Accuracy for Ship Motions An Application of Nine-Axis Dynamic Measurement Unit with Attitude and Heading Reference System (in Japanese)"Transactions of the West-Japan Society of Naval Architects. Vol. 101. 73-80 (2001)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Matsuo, K.: "Observation of the Sea Surface by the Radar Altimeter on the Satellite ERS A Trial of making out Satellite Wave Information Database (in Japanese)"Transactions of the West-Japan Society of Naval Architects. Vol. 102. 45-53 (2001)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] PARK, Jong Heon: "On the Prediction of Propeller Racing of Ocean-going Ships in Rough Confused Seas (in Japanese)"Transactions of the West-Japan Society of Naval Architects. Vol. 102. 141-150 (2001)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 松尾宏平: "衛星ERSのレーダー波高計による海面の観測に関する研究-衛星波浪情報データベース作成の一試み-"西部造船会会報. 第102号. 45-53 (2001)

    • Related Report
      2001 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 朴 鐘憲: "荒海を航行する船のプロペラレーシング推定に関する研究"西部造船会会報. 第102号. 141-150 (2001)

    • Related Report
      2001 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 新開明二: "限定近海船の乾舷規定の新設定に対する一評価"西部造船会会報. 第103号. 173-184 (2002)

    • Related Report
      2001 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 新開明二 et al.: "高精度船体運動計測システム開発-九軸&方位センサーの利用とデータ收集システム構築-"西部造船会会報. 第101号. 73-80 (2001)

    • Related Report
      2000 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 新開明二 et al.: "衛星ERSのレーダー波高計による海面の観測に関する研究-衛星波浪情報データベース作成の一試み-"西部造船会会報. 第102号(発表予定). (2001)

    • Related Report
      2000 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 新開明二 et al.: "荒海を航行する船のプロペラレーシング推定に関する研究"西部造船会会報. 第102号(発表予定). (2001)

    • Related Report
      2000 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Jong Heon PARK: "On the Prediction of Propeller Racing of Ships in a Seaway"Proceedings of JAKOM '99. 435-442 (1999)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 新開明ニ: "内航タンカーの乾舷の検討について"西武造船会会報. 第98号. 79-88 (1999)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 井関俊夫: "船体動揺パラメータのオンライン推定について"日本造船学会論文集. 第186号. 107-113 (1999)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report

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Published: 1999-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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