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Estimation of State-price Densities

Research Project

Project/Area Number 11630012
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field 経済理論
Research InstitutionHitotsubashi University (2001)
Osaka University (1999-2000)

Principal Investigator

SAITO Makoto  Hitotsubashi Univ., Graduate School of Economics, Professor, 大学院・経済学研究科, 教授 (10273426)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) FUKUTA Yuichi  Kobe Univ., Faculty of Business, Associate Professor, 大学院・経営学研究科, 助教授 (00243147)
Project Period (FY) 1999 – 2001
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2001)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,000,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000)
Fiscal Year 2001: ¥800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000)
Fiscal Year 2000: ¥800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000)
Fiscal Year 1999: ¥1,400,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000)
KeywordsDerivative pricing / State-price densities / Nonparametric estimation / Market liquidity / Convenience yields / Asset pricing bubbles / Liquidity effects / 資産価格決定理論 / 状態価格分布 / オプション価格 / 金利期間構造 / 債券先物
Research Abstract

This research project has constructed theoretical models to analyze how risk premium, liquidity premium, and convenience yields are reflected in derivative pricing, and empirically tested those models using derivative prices observed in financial markets in Japan. "Nonparametric estimation of state-price densities : An application of the local polynomial estimator" by Takagi and Saito (under review) estimates state-price densities using the index option prices listed in the Osaka Stock Exchange. In particular, this study applies local polynomial estimators, one of nonparametric estimators, in consideration for fewer points of exercise prices in the OSE. Saito and Ohnishi (2001) investigate the impact of changes in securities included in the Nikkei Index in April 2000, and find that individual stock prices reflected changes in market liquidity significantly. Fukuta, Saito, and Takagi (forthcoming) quantify convenience yields on JGBs exploiting the information of interest-rate swap spreads, and identify several factors, which contribute to yielding convenience. Fukuta and Saito (forthcoming), on the other hand, empirically examines the liquidity effect on forward exchange rates.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2001 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 2000 Annual Research Report
  • 1999 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (33 results)

All Other

All Publications (33 results)

  • [Publications] 齊藤誠, 高木真吾: "「オプション取引データに基づいた状態価格密度の推計について:大阪証券取引所の事例」"『インベストメント』. 53巻2号. 21-37 (2000)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Yucihi Fukuta, Makoto Saito: ""Forward discount puzzle and liquidity effects: Some evidence from exchange rates among US, Canada, and Japan""Journal of Money, Banking, and Credit. (近刊).

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Yuichi Fukuta: ""A test for rational bubbles in stock prices""Empirical Economics. (近刊).

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 齊藤誠: "「資産価格形成における流動性要因:覚え書き」"『一橋論叢』. 126巻4号. 48-61 (2001)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 齊藤誠, 大西雅彦: "「日経平均株価の銘柄入替が個別銘柄の流動性に与えた影響について」"『現代ファイナンス』. 第9号. 67-82 (2001)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 齊藤誠: "「日本の金融政策:金融政策の理論と実際」"『経済研究』. 52巻2号. 97-106 (2001)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 福田祐一, 齊藤誠, 高木真吾: "「国債の価格形成とコンビーニエンス:1990年代後半の日本国債のケース」"齊藤誠・柳川範之編著『流動性の経済学』所収,東洋経済新報社,(近刊).

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Makoto Saito and Shingo Takagi: "Estimation of state-price densities : The case of the Osaka Stock Exchange (in Japanese)"Invesutomento. 53(2). 21-37 (2000)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Yuichi Fukuta and Makoto Saito: "Forward discount puzzle and liquidity effects : Some evidence from exchange rates among US, Canada, and Japan"Journal of Money, Banking, and Credit. (forthcoming).

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Yuichi Fukuta: "A test for rational bubbles in stock prices"Empirical Economics. (forthcoming).

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Makoto Saito: "Asset pricing and liquidity : A note (in Japanese)"Ikkyo-ronso. 126(4). 48-61 (2001)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Makoto Saito and Masahiko Ohnishi: "On liquidity impacts of changes in securities included in Nikkei Index (in Japanese)"Gendai-fainansu. 9. 67-82 (2001)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Makoto Saito: "On the monetary policy of BOJ (in Japanese)"Keizai-kenkyu. 52(2). 97-106 (2001)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Yuichi Fukuta, Makoto Saito, and Shingo Takagi: "On convenience yields of JGB : An empirical investigation"Makoto Saito and Noriyuki Yanagawa, eds., Economics of Liquidity, Toyo-keizai-shinpo-sha. (forthcoming).

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 齋藤誠, 高木真吾: "「オプション取引データに基づいた状態価格密度の推計について:大阪証券取引所の事例」"『インベストメント』. 53巻2号. 21-37 (2000)

    • Related Report
      2001 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Yuichi Fukuta, Makoto Saito: ""Forward discount puzzle and liquidity effects : Some evidence from exchange rates among US, Canada, and Japan""Journal of Money, Banking, and Credit. (近刊)(未定).

    • Related Report
      2001 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Yuichi Fukuta: ""A test for rational bubbles in stock prices""Empirical Economics. (近刊)(未定).

    • Related Report
      2001 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 齋藤誠: "「資産価格形成における流動性要因:覚え書き」"『一橋論叢』. 126巻4号. 48-61 (2001)

    • Related Report
      2001 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 齋藤誠, 大西雅彦: "「日経平均株価の銘柄入替が個別銘柄の流動性に与えた影響について」"『現代ファイナンス』. 第9号. 67-82 (2001)

    • Related Report
      2001 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 齋藤誠: "「日本の金融政策:金融政策の理論と実際」"『経済研究』. 52巻2号. 97-106 (2001)

    • Related Report
      2001 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 福田祐一, 齋藤誠, 高木真吾: "齋藤誠・柳川範之編著『流動性の経済学』所収,「国債の価格形成とコンビーニエンス:1990年代後半の日本国債のケース」"東洋経済新報社(近刊).

    • Related Report
      2001 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 齊藤誠: "「日本の金融政策」"経済研究. (近刊).

    • Related Report
      2000 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 齊藤誠,大西雅彦: "「日経平均株価の銘柄入れ替えが個別銘柄の流動性に与えた影響について:覚え書き」"現代ファイナンス. (近刊).

    • Related Report
      2000 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 高木真吾,齊藤誠: "「オプション取引データに基づいた状態価格密度の推計について:大阪証券取引所の事例」"インベストメント. 53巻2号. 21-37 (2000)

    • Related Report
      2000 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 斉藤誠,福田祐一: "「フォワードディスカウントパズルと流動性効果」"小佐野広・本多佑三編『現代の金融と政策』2000年1月,日本評論社,所収. (2000)

    • Related Report
      2000 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 福田祐一,斉藤誠: "「金利期間構造の将来インフレーションに関する情報含意について」"小佐野広・本多佑三編『現代の金融と政策』2000年1月,日本評論社,所収. (2000)

    • Related Report
      2000 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] S.Takagi and M.Saito: ""Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities : An Evaluation of Different Estimation Methods""統計数理研究所共同研究レポート134「ノンパラメトリック・ファンクショナル推定の理論と応用」2000年3月所収. (2000)

    • Related Report
      2000 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 齊藤誠: "金融技術の考え方・使い方:リスクと流動性の経済学"有斐閣. 389 (2000)

    • Related Report
      2000 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] K.Miyazaki,M.Saito: "On the Market Risk Involved in the Public Financial System in Joy"Jornal of Banking and Finance. 23. 1243-1259 (1999)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] K.Miyazaki,M.Saito: "On Numerical Calculation Programs of American-type Options Using Gauss Codes"Osaka Economic Papers. 48. 25-54 (1998)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] M.Saito: "Dynamic Allocation and Pricing in Incomplete Markets"Monetary and Economic Studies. 17. 45-75 (1999)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 斎藤誠: "高度化した資本市場におけるリスクと流動性"フィナンシャル・レビュー. 51. 5-27 (1999)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 岩本康志,大竹文雄,齋藤誠,二神孝一: "経済政策とマクロ経済学"日本経済新聞社. 252 (1999)

    • Related Report
      1999 Annual Research Report

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Published: 1999-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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