| Budget Amount *help |
¥1,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000)
Fiscal Year 2001: ¥600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000)
Fiscal Year 2000: ¥500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000)
Fiscal Year 1999: ¥500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000)
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| Research Abstract |
The agricultural technological improvements and expansion of crops planted area during the post World War II period had contributed growth of world agricultural production. However population explosion, economic growth and changes in the food demand structure, limitation of such natural resources as arable land and water, exhaustion of natural resources, and agricultural policy and other socio-economic factors on the earth have caused contradictory coexistence of huge number of the hungry in the South and a large number of the over-fed in the North.
About the future of world food demand and supply, (1) the most Japanese agricultural economists and Lester Brown believe that it will face severe food shortage, while (2) the USDA, the World Bank, IFPRI, MOIRA estimate it will face severe surplus. (3) FAO and Japanese Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery estimate in between. The estimates of the (2) and the (3) groups bases themselves on econometric models, and because the econometric models are very rigid and cannot adjust to the actual situation flexibly often lead to biases in their future projections.
In this research project a qualitative and not quantitative estimate of world food demand and supply based on economic analyses, statistical studies, field surveys and other related information analyses was done. A final report will soon be published in Japanese and English.
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