| Budget Amount *help |
¥2,800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,800,000)
Fiscal Year 2000: ¥800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000)
Fiscal Year 1999: ¥2,000,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,000,000)
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| Research Abstract |
A research concerning the earth's environment and its various problems such as global warming, acid rain, the deforestation tropical rainforest and desertification is performed. These environmental problems are mutually related to each other. For instance, forests are deforested to obtain lands for cultivation to maintain an adequate supply of food. Hence, the CO2 density in the atmosphere increases by decreasing the CO2 fixation area, which in turn contributes to global warming. The influence by human activities such as food consumption, energy consumption, and water demand are greatly contribute to many of these problems. To provide insight into relative importance of different linkages in the Society-biosphere-climate. IMAGE2^<[1]> was developed. But this can't explain the relationship between human activities and global environmental change.
Goto ^<[2]> estimated the population that can be accommodated with the potential arable land (using NDVI from NOAA-AVHRR) which can be potentia
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lly cultivated is used for grain production. considering the amount of meat production. And he estimated the CO2 emission from the human activities When the population is maximum of the capacity by using Edmond-Raily Model explicitly. Yamamoto^<[3]> evaluated the overall CO2 exhaust due to the improvement of land use, population increase, living standard improvement, forest destruction and so forth and obtained the amount for which the biomes can be used. In this model, the CO2 exhaust due to two energy sectors were evaluated : energy consumption sector and the sector in which the area of forests is decreased due to logging and due to slash-and-burn agriculture to clear away plots of land for farming. But the population is iuputted. Past Researches mentioned above can not explain the balance between human activities and LUC.
This study aims to make a model by which the influence of human activities such as food consumption, energy consumption, etc. on the earth's environment is evaluated and to evaluate the size of the influence from 1986 to 2020 for each countries.
Using GIS and socio-economical data the relationship between human activities and global environmental change is analyzed from the viewpoint of food productivity, CO2 emission, and water balance. Under the assumption that the population problem, the food problem and global warming due to energy consumption can be stabilized through managing land use, impacts of human activities such as consumption of food, energy and timber on global environment changes, global population capacity, and water balance are analyzed using system dynamics model. In the model the world is divided into each countries. The global land use data set used in this study is land cover map derived from satellite data, and potential distribution of arable land is estimated by the method of Cramer and Solomon which takes into consideration spatial distribution of climate data such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. In addition, impacts of CO2 emission from human activities on food production through global warming are included in the model as a feedback. As for the water balance, water is used for cultivation, lifeline, and faculty. The results of the analysis for BaU scenario and IPCC scenario are similar to the results of existing models. From the result of this study, based on the human habitability in 2020, which is estimated by UN as 8 billion people, CO2 emission, water balance are estimated respectively. Improving spatial resolution of the model by using global data to distribute the environmental variables and sauce-economical indices is left for further studies.
Reference :
[1]J.Alcomo (ed.) : IMAGE2 2.0 Integrated Modeling of Global Cli.mate Change, Kluer Academic Publishers, 1994.
[2]S.Goto : Assimilating use of GIS for Socio-Economical Simulation for Global Change, Toward Global Planning of Sustainable Use of the Earth-Development of Global Eco-Engineering- (Ed.S.Murai), Elsevier, pp387-393, 1995.
[3]H.Yamamoto and K.Yamaji : Analysis of Availability of Biomass Use by Global Energy-LUC model, CEPRI Report y94004, 1994. Less
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