| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
OZAKI Tohru Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Professor, 予測制御系, 教授 (00000208)
KATO Takashi Forestry and Forest Product Research Institute, Director, 林業経営管理部, 科長
YOSHIMOTO Atsushi Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Associate Professor, 調査実験解析研究系, 助教授 (10264350)
SHOJI Isao Univ. of Tsukuba, Institute of Policy and Planning Sciences, Associate Professor, 社会工学系, 助教授 (20282329)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥16,380,000 (Direct Cost: ¥15,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,380,000)
Fiscal Year 2001: ¥5,980,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,380,000)
Fiscal Year 2000: ¥4,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,600,000)
Fiscal Year 1999: ¥5,800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,800,000)
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| Research Abstract |
Results of our research are as follows.
I. Qualitative Analysis : 1) Influence of import increase of Russia lumber in China (1) Aggravation of the financial income and expenditure of national forest management along with market price decrease. (2) After January, 1999, deregulation about acquisition of the imported lumber import business right increased the number of private enterprises / suppliers instead of trading companies under the central and a subsidiary of local government control (3) Deforestation in the vicinity of east Siberia Baikal by intensive purchase of forest products by Chinese (4) Increase of illegal harvesting and imports
2) Increase of Austrian export to Japan might result from extremely low afforestation costs, harvesting costs and transportation costs, i.e., 210,000 Yen/m3, 2240 Yen/m3 and 5000 Yen/m3.
II. Quantitative Analysis
1) Price elasticity of lumber demand became around -1.0 in Kanto, Chubu, and Kinki, which are large timber consumption region, while it was fr
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om -0.1 to -0.5 elastic in Kyushu, Shikoku, Tohoku, that are timber producing regions.
On the other hand, price elasticity of lumber supply became 0.12 to 0.32 for domestic lumber, 0.08 to 0.47 for lumber produced from US imported logs, and 0.41 for imported lumber. With exception of Chugoku case, the elastitcy of domestic lumber became more inelastic than others in all regions.
2) Through the analysis with use of the proposed lumber market model called JAFSEM V2, it was found out that increase in imported lumber would be expected by 7.1 % to 9.7 %, and that domestic lumber supply would be sacrificed. This implies that the import lumber price would be too low within the partial equilibrium context. In addition, Tohoku is a main lumber supplier to Kanto and Hokuriku, while Chugoku is for Shikoku and Kinki.
3) Regarding stationarity of FAO data, it was revealed that during such a period with remarkable decrease and increase of lumber import and export, price elasticity tended to show elastic value.
A increasing tendency of import and export lumber quantity with high value of price elasticity, appeared for such products as industrial products from North America and Oceania as well as chips and particle boards, and those from western Europe. Less
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