The Demographic Transition Theory in Japanese Perspective
Project/Area Number |
12630035
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Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
Section | 一般 |
Research Field |
Economic statistics
|
Research Institution | Aichi Konan College |
Principal Investigator |
KINOSHITA Futoshi Aichi Konan College, Liberal Arts, Professor, 教養学科, 教授 (50234323)
|
Project Period (FY) |
2000 – 2001
|
Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2001)
|
Budget Amount *help |
¥2,100,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,100,000)
Fiscal Year 2001: ¥700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000)
Fiscal Year 2000: ¥1,400,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000)
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Keywords | Demographic transition theory / Modernization / Demographic structure / Fertility / Mortality / European fertility project / Infant mortality / Primary Industry / 都市化率 / ヨーロッパ出生力プロジエクト / プリンストン指標 |
Research Abstract |
The aim of this project is to examine the validity of the demographic transition theory in Japanese perspective, focusing on the period from 1920 to 1960. The demographic transition theory has been widely accepted in various fields in social sciences for almost half a century after World War II. Because of its implications on population and development, the theory also played an important role in international politics aiding developing countries. However, recent studies, particularly Princeton's European fertility project, throw serious doubt on the theory. The main findings of this project can be summarized as follows : (1) Demographically speaking, Japan was by no means monolithic but had clear regional patterns. For example, marital fertility was high in eastern Japan but low in western Japan. (2) Fertility trends over time also varied regionally. Not all prefectures showed a declining trend in fertility after 1920. Some exhibited an increasing trend and others did not show any trend at all. (3) There existed a difference in demographic behavior between Europe and Japan. During the demographic transition in Europe(1870-1930), marital fertility declined precipitously whereas marital rates changed very little. In Japan, on the other hand, both marital rates and marital fertility declined simultaneously. (4)Multiple regression analyses show that fertility in Japan had a close relationship with agricultural variables and infant mortality. There existed a structure diterming fertility of Japanese which was common to the period from 1920 to 1950. But this structure completely disappeared in 1960. Instead of using a level of marital fertility itself as a dependent variable, using the speed of fertility decline can yield a better result.
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Report
(3 results)
Research Products
(7 results)