| Budget Amount *help |
¥2,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,900,000)
Fiscal Year 2002: ¥800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000)
Fiscal Year 2001: ¥800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000)
Fiscal Year 2000: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000)
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| Research Abstract |
(1)Using household expenditure data from the 1993 and 1996 National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas), we examined the effects of the 1994-1996 Inpres Desa Tertinggal(IDT) Program (Inpres Program for Less-developed Villages) on the change in intra-provincial inequality between 1993 and 1996 in Indonesia. Through regression analysis, it was found that per capita IDT grants per province have a significant ameliorating effect on the change in intra-provincial expenditure inequality between 1993 and 1996. The inclusion of other plausible explanatory variables further clarifies the robust effects of the IDT program. Overall, the IDT program appears to have been successful in improving the economic conditions of the poorer households and in mitigating the overall level of inequality.
(2)We analyzed structural changes and the sources of industrial growth in Indonesia between 1985 and 1995 by using the 1985, 90, and 95 input-output tables. It also investigates the changes in the pattern of indust
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rial growth over the 25-year period from 1971-95. In the past three decades, Indonesia appears to have achieved a successful transition from an inward-looking, government-led industrialization financed by oil exports to an outward-looking, market-oriented industrialization based on non-oil exports, in which the turning period was during the 1980-85 period. During 1985-95, the expansion, of household consumption remained the main source of output growth as it accounted for about one-half of total output growth ; in contrast, the contribution of government consumption was reduced to a negligible level, signifying the declining role of the government sector in output growth. The expansion off exports was also a key factor in output growth in addition to the rise in export-oriented investments. It is noteworthy that export expansion was made, to a large extent, by non-oil exports, rather than oil exports.
(3)We estimated regional income inequality in Indonesia from 1993 to 1998, using a Theil index based upon district-level GDP and population data. Between 1993 and 1997, when Indonesia's annual average growth rate exceeded 7%, regional income inequality rose significantly. A two-stage nested inequality decomposition analysis indicates this was due mainly to an increase in within-province inequality, especially in Riau, Jakarta and West and East Java. In 1997, the within-province component represented about 50% of regional income inequality. The economic crisis caused per capita GDP growth to revert to its 1995 level, but the impact was spread unevenly across provinces and districts. In 1998 regional income inequality declined to its 1993-94 level. In contrast to 1993-97, three-quarters of the 1998 decline was due to a change in between-province inequality, with the Java-Bali region playing a prominent role. The crisis appears particularly to have afflicted urban Java and urban Sumatra. Less
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