| Project/Area Number |
12660137
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
林学
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| Research Institution | Kyushu University (2001-2002)
Tottori University (2000) |
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Principal Investigator |
KUBOTA Tetsuya Faculty of agriculture, Associate professor, 農学研究院, 助教授 (40243381)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2000 – 2002
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2002)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥2,500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000)
Fiscal Year 2002: ¥400,000 (Direct Cost: ¥400,000)
Fiscal Year 2001: ¥300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2000: ¥1,800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000)
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| Keywords | evacuation / now-cast / Internet / mesoscale meteorology / 地形性降雨 / 山地災害 / ニューラルネットワーク / 山地雨量 / 土砂災害 / 警戒避難 / 崩壊・土石流・地すべり / メソスケール気象 / ニューラルネット / 梅雨・台風 / レーダー雨量 / 予報 |
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| Research Abstract |
In this study, we analyzed the mesoscale meteorological conditions when landslides occur due to rain fronts or typhoons and proposed a simple method, based on meteorological data being provided on the Internet in real time, of evaluating rainfall intensities relevant to landslides at mountainous areas.
Various techniques were studied as follows:
1) Simple short term prediction of point rainfall performed by the neural network (hereafter called NNW).
2) Evaluation method of the orographic rain based on vertical vapor integral scheme.
3) Evaluation methods of the rainfall intensity by the now-cast with mesoscale meteorological condition are proposed.
The point rainfall intensity can be bigger than forecast values in specific meteorological patterns enough to misjudge the evacuation timings.
4) The now-cast data are basically reliable except the some severe meteorological conditions mentioned above.
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