| Project/Area Number |
12670362
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Public health/Health science
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| Research Institution | KYUSHU UNIVERSITY |
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Principal Investigator |
TOKUNAGA Shoji Graduate School of Graduate School of Medical Sciences, KYUSHU UNIVERSITY, Assist. Prof., 大学院・医学研究院, 助手 (50227584)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2000 – 2001
|
| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2001)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000)
Fiscal Year 2001: ¥1,700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,700,000)
Fiscal Year 2000: ¥1,500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000)
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| Keywords | INFLUENZA / SIMULATION / PANDEMIC / MATHEMATICAL MODEL / 汎流行 |
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| Research Abstract |
The aim of this study was to predict the size and speed of the epidemic caused by a new subtype of influenza. A new influenza with the same force of infection as Asian flue (1957-59) was assumed to invade Japan in winter. The Kermack-McKendrickmodel was used for the computer simulation. The data for the estimation of the force of infection was taken from the reported number of influenza patients by the Japanese national surveillance of the infectious diseases and the number of death from the Japanese demographic survey. The temporal change in those numbers were assumed to reflect the number of infected persons. The result of the simulation assuming the worst setting shows that the cumulated incidence can be 75 % of the total population, the prevalence of the influenza infection may reach to 34 % of the total population, and the peak of the epidemic will come within 8 weeks after the invasion. Such a disastrous scenario should not be excluded from the consideration when preparing for the pandemic of influenza.
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