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System Analysis of Complex Features of Socio-Economic Structure based on the Complex Theory and its Application to the Risk Analysis

Research Project

Project/Area Number 12680445
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field 社会システム工学
Research InstitutionKYUSHU UNIVERSITY

Principal Investigator

TOKINAGA Shozo  Graduate School of Economics, Kyushu University, Professor, 大学院・経済学研究院, 教授 (30124134)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) FURUKAWA Tetsuya  Graduate School of Economics, Kyushu University, Associate Professor, 大学院・経済学研究院, 助教授 (00209165)
NAKAI Wataru  Graduate School of Economics, Kyushu University, Professor, 大学院・経済学研究院, 教授 (20145808)
IWAMOTO Seiichi  Graduate School of Economics, Kyushu University, Professor, 大学院・経済学研究院, 教授 (90037284)
Project Period (FY) 2000 – 2001
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2001)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,000,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000)
Fiscal Year 2001: ¥1,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000)
Fiscal Year 2000: ¥1,800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000)
KeywordsComplex system / Risk analysis / Dynamical system / Optimization / Fuzzy inference / Fractal theory / Chaos / Uncertainty / 社会システム / リスク管理 / 動的計画法 / 確率追跡 / 複合的社会 / 動的計画
Research Abstract

The project treated the analysis of complex feature of the socio-economic dynamics and its application to the risk analysis based on the complex theory. As the result of project three purposed of the project was realized, namely, 1) risk analysis and risk management of complex socio-econoinic dynamic, 2) observation of system performance based on the complex theory and the analysis of self-organization structure, 3) macro-economic formulation for the system dynamics and the application of the complex theory to the prediction and control. The basic approach of the project was the formulation of the socio-economic dynamics based on the concept of self-organizing system which has original mathematically descriptive structure, and the application of theories of uncertainty such as the GA, the fuzzy inference system, and the fractal and chaos theory. The multi-stage fuzzy inference system was used to describe the inference in a linguistic manner, and it was applied to the optimization of dy … More namical system. Moreover, many examples of the risk management and decision making in the Japanese firms in the dynamical environment were summarized as a database, and also many example for the public economics. A novel method was proposed for the improvement of the fuzzy inference system used for the clustering of a large sized observation. As a typical application for the planning problem under uncertainty, the network-based structure for the macro-economics model was proposed, and the problem was solved by using our works in the project in the complex theory and the optimization of system dynamics.
In these field, many corporate works were carried out among the members of the project as well as related researchers in Japanese and foreign countries. The result of the project was published in the form of papers in several academic societies such as the Operations Research Society of Japan, the Information Processing Society of Japan, the Institute of Electronics, Information and Comiminication Engineering, Japan. Less

Report

(3 results)
  • 2001 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 2000 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (24 results)

All Other

All Publications (24 results)

  • [Publications] 時永 祥三: "Controlling the chaotic dynamics by using approximated system equations obtained by the genetic programming"電子情報通信学会論文誌. E84-A,9. 2128-2138 (2001)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 時永 祥三: "Approximation of multi-dimensional chaotic dynamics by using the multi-stage fuzzy inference systems and the GA"電子情報通信学会論文誌. E84-A,9. 2118-2127 (2001)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 岩本 誠一: "Fuzzy decision-making through three dynamic programming approaches"International Journal of Fuzzy Systems. Vol3,no.4. 520-526 (2001)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 岩本 誠一: "S.Iwamoto, A class of dual fuzzy dynamic programming"Applied Mathemalics and Computation. 120. 91-108 (2001)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 時永祥三: "電子商取引と情報経済"九州大学出版会. 210 (2001)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Y. Ikeda and S.Tokinaga: "Controlling the chaotic dynamics by using approximated system eqations obtained by the genetic programming"Trans. IEICE. Vol. E84-A, no. 9. 2118-2127 (2001)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Y. Kishikawa and S.Tokinaga: "Approximation of multi-dimensional chaotic dynamics by using the multi-stage fuzzy inference systems and the GA"Trans. IEICE. Vol.E84-A, no.9. 2128-2137 (2001)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Y. Kishikawa and S.Tokinaga: "Prediction of stock trends by using the wavelet transform and the multi-stage fuzzy inference system optimized by the GA"Trans. IEICE. Vol. E83-A, no. 2. 357-366 (2000)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] S. Iwamoto: "A class of dual fuzzy dynamic programming"Applied Mathmatics and Computation. Vol.120. 91-108 (2001)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] S. Iwamoto: "Fuzzy decision-making through three dynamic programming approaches"International Journal of Fuzzy Systems. Vol. 3, no. 4. 520-526 (2001)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2001 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 時永祥三, 岸川義紀: "Approximation of multi-dimensional chaotic dynamics by using the multi-stage fuzzy inference systems"電子情報通信学会論文誌. E84-A, 9. 2128-2137 (2001)

    • Related Report
      2001 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 時永祥三, 池田欽一: "Controlling the chaotic dynamics by using the approximated system equations obtained by the GP"電子情報通信学会論文誌. E84-A, 9. 2118-2127 (2001)

    • Related Report
      2001 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 時永祥三, 池田欽一: "Approximation of chaotic dynamics by using smaller number of data based upon the GP and its application"電子情報通信学会論文誌. E83-A, 8. 1599-1607 (2000)

    • Related Report
      2001 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 岩本誠一: "A class of dual fuzzy dynamics preprogramming"Applied mathematics and Computation. 120. 91-108 (2001)

    • Related Report
      2001 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 岩本誠一: "Fuzzy decision-making through three dynamic programming approaches"Intentional Journal of Fuzzy Systems. Vol3, No4. 520-526 (2001)

    • Related Report
      2001 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 中井 達: "離散時間の信用リスクのある割引債券モデル"京都大学数理解析研究所講究録. 1207. 1-21 (2001)

    • Related Report
      2001 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 時永祥三: "複雑系による経済モデル分析"九州大学出版会. 234 (2000)

    • Related Report
      2001 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] S Tokinaga: "Prediction of stock trends by using the wavelet transform and the multistage fuzzy inference systems"電子情報通信学会・英文誌. E83-A,2. pp357-366 (2000)

    • Related Report
      2000 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] S.Tokinaga: "On the modeling afel analysis of economic time series using the complex system."信号処理(journal of signal processing). vol4,No.4. 279-286 (2000)

    • Related Report
      2000 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] S.Tokinaga: "Approximation of chaotic dynamics by using smaller number of data based upon the GP"電子情報通信学会・英文誌. E83-A,8. 1599-1607 (2000)

    • Related Report
      2000 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 岩本誠一: "確率最適化における帰式と決定樹表"京大数理解析研究所・講究録. 1132. 15-23 (2000)

    • Related Report
      2000 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 岩本誠一: "最近ルート問題(Nearest route problem)"京大・数理解析研究所・講究録. 1174. 32-44 (2000)

    • Related Report
      2000 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 岩本誠一: "Maximizing threshold probability through invariant imbedding"The eight Bellman Continum. 17-22 (2000)

    • Related Report
      2000 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 時永祥三: "複雑系による経済モデル分析"九州大学出版会. 235 (2000)

    • Related Report
      2000 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2000-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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