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不確定環境におけるファジィVaR基準に基づく収益・リスク評価モデルの構築

Research Project

Project/Area Number 12J01522
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Fellows

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section国内
Research Field Sensitivity informatics/Soft computing
Research InstitutionWaseda University

Principal Investigator

王 博  早稲田大学, 情報生産システム研究科, 特別研究員PD

Project Period (FY) 2012 – 2013
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2013)
Budget Amount *help
¥1,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000)
KeywordsUncertainty / Value-at-Risk / Risk/Return Analysis / Modeling / Unit Commitment / Portfolio Selection / Bilevel Programming / Multi-objective / Fuzzy set theory / Fuzzy Value-at-Risk / Maximal blackout time at successful operation / Two-stage multi-objective UCP model / Power load uncertainty / Solution algorithm
Research Abstract

In the second year of JSPS program, we continue to work in the related fields according to the research plan made when apply the JSPS scholarship. During this period, we mainly focused on the developments of several risk measurements, the constructions of complicated mathematical models and the applications of our approaches in unit commitment and portfolio selection problems. The main objects of the research have been achieved, and we have published the research results in both SCI journals and international conferences.
Our results in the past year can be summarized as follows :
1. Research on unit commitment problem : First, we improve the single-node model proposed in our previous study to a multi-node system to ferret more realistic decisions. The mathematical model is improved to handle the transmission interconnection constraints which are necessary in a multi-node unit commitment, and we unify the multi-objective problem as one function to obtain a unique solution of the problem. … More Moreover, the solution algorithm is modified accordingly to solve the complicated optimization problem. Second, recently we just finished a new study which constructs a unit commitment-based bilevel electricity trading model. This model handles the optimizations of both the generation company and the market operator simultaneously. We have submitted this result to IEEE Trans. On Power Systems.
2. Research on portfolio selection problem : Collaborate with other PhD. students in our lab, we also have some interesting results in this filed. We build two novel portfolio selection models in fuzzy environment : the first study uses technical analysis-based fuzzy birandom variables to help the managers in both security future returns forecasting and decision-making, while the second one addresses the investors' exit strategy in portfolio selection problem. Both of the studies are novel to portfolio selection problem and show effectiveness when comparing with existing literatures.
Our research on multi-node unit commitment problem also won the "Excellence paper award" in the Tenth International Symposium on Management Engineering. Less

Current Status of Research Progress
Current Status of Research Progress

1: Research has progressed more than it was originally planned.

Reason

25 fiscal year isn't complete for the final year this research issue.
In the past two research years, we have been working on our topic step by step, according to the plan made when applying the JSPS scholarship. Right now, the main purpose and goal of the first year has been successfully achieved and we also extend our studies to some other fields, e.g. bilevel mathematical modeling and related solution methods.

Strategy for Future Research Activity

With the support of JSPS program, we have obtained various research results in the past two years. Our future work will be carried on based on the current results and we will further extend our research in modeling, solution and applications fields. We want to thank the support from JSPS and we also believe more interesting results will be obtained in our future studies.

Report

(2 results)
  • 2013 Annual Research Report
  • 2012 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (6 results)

All 2014 2013 2012

All Journal Article (4 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 4 results) Presentation (2 results) (of which Invited: 1 results)

  • [Journal Article] Portfolio Selection Models with Technical Analysis-Based Fuzzy Birandom Variables2014

    • Author(s)
      You Li, Bo Wang and Junzo Watada
    • Journal Title

      IEICE Transactions on Information and Systems

      Volume: E97.D Issue: 1 Pages: 11-21

    • DOI

      10.1587/transinf.E97.D.11

    • NAID

      130003385471

    • ISSN
      0916-8532, 1745-1361
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Impact evaluation of exit strategy in fuzzy portfolio-based investment2014

    • Author(s)
      You Li, Bo Wang and Junzo Watada
    • Journal Title

      IEEJ Transactions on Electrical and Electronic Engineering

      Volume: (To be published) Issue: 5 Pages: 502-513

    • DOI

      10.1002/tee.21999

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] A Fuzzy Multi-Objective Portfolio Selection Model with Piecewise Linear Transaction Costs2014

    • Author(s)
      You Li, Bo Wang and Junzo Watada
    • Journal Title

      IEEJ Transactions on Electronics, Information and Systems

      Volume: 134 Issue: 6 Pages: 780-787

    • DOI

      10.1541/ieejeiss.134.780

    • NAID

      130004870054

    • ISSN
      0385-4221, 1348-8155
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Supply reliability and generation cost analysis due to load forecast uncertainty in unit commitment problems2013

    • Author(s)
      Bo Wang, You Li and Junzo Watada
    • Journal Title

      IEEE Transactions on Power Systems

      Volume: (To be published) Issue: 3 Pages: 1-10

    • DOI

      10.1109/tpwrs.2013.2238561

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Economic analysis in multi-node unit commitment optimization under fuzzy load uncertainty2013

    • Author(s)
      Bo Wang, You Li and Junzo Watada
    • Organizer
      The Tenth International Symposium on Management Engineering 2013
    • Place of Presentation
      Hangzhou, China
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Two-stage multi-objective unit commitment optimization under future load uncertainty2012

    • Author(s)
      Bo Wang, You Li and Junzo Watada
    • Organizer
      The Sixth International Conference on Genetic and Evolutionary Computing
    • Place of Presentation
      Kitakyushu, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2012-08-28
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2013-04-25   Modified: 2024-03-26  

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