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Statistical Model for evaluating health effects of dioxins around waste incinerators

Research Project

Project/Area Number 13480072
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Statistical science
Research InstitutionNational Institute of Public Health

Principal Investigator

TANGO Toshiro  National Institute of Public Health, Department of Technology Assessment and Biostatistics, Director, 技術評価部, 部長 (70124477)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) YAMAOKA Kazue  National Institute of Public Health, Department of Technology Assessment and Biostatistics, Section Chief, 技術評価部, 室長 (50091038)
OGATA Hiromitsu  National Institute of Public Health, Center for Information Research and Library, Section Chief, 研究情報センター, 室長 (50185500)
池口 孝  国立環境研, 循環型社会形成推進廃棄物研究センター, 室長 (40094255)
Project Period (FY) 2001 – 2003
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2003)
Budget Amount *help
¥15,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥15,200,000)
Fiscal Year 2003: ¥2,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,300,000)
Fiscal Year 2002: ¥5,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,600,000)
Fiscal Year 2001: ¥7,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,300,000)
Keywordsdioxins / Poisson distribution / score test / Monte Carlo simulation / GIS / ポアソン分布
Research Abstract

There has been great public concern that adverse reproductive health effects may be associated with dioxins in emission gases from municipal solid waste (MSW) incinerators. Recently, Japan's first-ever large scale nationwide epidemiological study has begun to examine the association of adverse reproductive outcomes with mothers living within 10km from 63 MSW incinerators with high dioxin emission levels (above 80ng international toxic equivalents TEQ/m^3) in Japan. The primary purpose of our study was to investigate the statistical method to analyze the data collected in the above study and also to propose a method applicable to more general problems of raised disease risk around putative point sources.
As statistical method to detect such clusters, Stone's maximum likelihood ratio test and score tests which score each case the reciprocal of the distance from a point source are popular. In our study, we have proposed extensions of score tests based on small area data in that (i)it allows us to select the best among prespecified parametric exposure functions to avoid multiple testing problems and (ii)it can be applied to a possible situation where the hazardous substance levels tend to peak at some distance from a point source. The properties of the proposed tests and their power have been examined and illustrated with hypothetical data and also the power calculation has been conducted on the study design of above-stated epidemiological study. Simulation study shows that the powers of the proposed tests are higher than that of Stone's test over all the alternatives considered.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2003 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 2002 Annual Research Report
  • 2001 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (10 results)

All Other

All Publications (10 results)

  • [Publications] Tango, T.: "Score tests for detecting excess risks around putative source"Statistics in Medicine. 21. 497-514 (2002)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kulldorff M, Tango T, Park PJ.: "Power comparisons for disease clustering tests"Computational Statistics and Data Analysis. 42. 665-684 (2003)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Tango, T et al.: "Risk of Adverse Reproductive Outcomes Associated with Proximity to Municipal Solid Waste Incinerators with High Dioxin Emission Levels in Japan"Journal of Epidemiology. 14. 83-93 (2004)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Tango T.: "Score tests for detecting excess risks around putative sources."Statistics in Medicine. 21. 497-514 (2002)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kulldorff M, Tango T, Park PJ.: "Power comparisons for disease clustering tests."Computational Statistics and Data Analysis. 42. 665-684 (2003)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Tango T. et al.: "Risk of Adverse Reproductive Outcomes Associated with Proximity to Municipal Solid Waste Incinerators with High Dioxin Emission Levels in Japan."Journal of Epidemiology. 14. 83-93 (2004)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Tango T, Yamaoka K, Ogata H.: "A simple spatio-temporal model for excess environmental risks around putative sources based on small area data with many zero counts (Invited paper."International Conference on Statistical Challenges in Environmental Health Problems, Fukuoka, Japan, September 2001,p162. (2001)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Tango, T.: "A space-time model for excess environmental risks around putative sources based on small area data with many zero counts."The 2002 International Conference of the Royal Statistical Society, University of Plymouth, UK, 3-6th September 2002, Abstracts p76 (Invited paper).. (2002)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kullddrff M, Tango, T, Park PJ: "Power comparisons for disease clustering tests"Computational Statistics and Date Analysis. 42. 665-684 (2003)

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Tango, T.: "Score tests for excess risks around putative sources"Statistics in Medicine. 21. 497-514 (2002)

    • Related Report
      2002 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2001-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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