strategjc Debates and the Feasibility of Establishing a Regime Banning Nuclear Weapons after the Cold War

Research Project

Project/Area Number	13620079
Research Category	Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
Allocation Type	Single-year Grants
Section	一般
Research Field	Politics
Research Institution	The University of Tsukuba
Principal Investigator	AKANEYA Tatsuo The University of Tsukaba, Institute of Policy and Planning Sciences, Professor, 社会工学系, 教授 (00212407)
Project Period (FY)	2001 – 2002
Project Status	Completed (Fiscal Year 2002)
Budget Amount *help	¥1,000,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000) Fiscal Year 2002: ¥1,000,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000)
Keywords	Abolition of nuclear weapons / Nuclear deterrence / A regime banning nuclear weapons / Nuclear proliferation / De-alerting / Marginalization of nuclear weapons / Nuclear disarmament / Policy windows / 核不拡散 / 拡散対抗 / 冷戦の終焉 / 同時多発テロ / イラクと北朝鮮 / 核兵器全廃レジーム / 核戦略 / 国際司法裁判所の勧告的意見 / 核抑止論 / 対人地雷 / 化学兵器 / 全米ミサイル防衛(MD) / 世論
Research Abstract	This research aimed at the following two objectives: First, to analyze characteristics of the non-proliferation regime in comparison with other arms-control and disarmament regimes; Second, to analyze the, conditions under which abolition of nuclear weapons becomes feasible. Due regard was paid to the current strategic debates regarding the role of nuclear weapons, and the trends toward arms-control and disarmament after the end of the Cold War. Regarding the first objective, I made a following analysis : (1) All the existing nuclear-weapons states regard the possession of nuclear weapons as the vital element in their national security strategy. (2) There is a wide-spread belief in the effectiveness and utility of nuclear deterrence. The nuclear weapon is regarded as the ultimate weapon to preserve international peace. (3) Given the faith in nuclear deterrence, the existing regime of nuclear non-proliferation does not aim at nuclear abolition ; it merely aims at non-proliferation. Regarding the second objective, the following points were explained, (l) In order to explore the ways towards the abolition of nuclear weapons, we need to criticize the nuclear deterrence theory and faith in it, since the theory is the foundation on which people legitimize the continued possession of nuclear weapons. (2) There are alternative ideas to nuclear deterrence as a way to preserve international peace. I examined an idea to form a universal regime, probably without nuclear weapons states as its member, which bans the possession of nuclear weapons, and its role in international politics. I also examined a practical idea of nuclear marginalization with particular focus on 'virtual nuclear arsenal.' (3) Notwithstanding many good ideas regarding the abolition of nuclear weapons, what is lacking is strong political initiative to realize it. Given the existing reality of international political situation, such political initiative may come only after the failure of nuclear deterrence.