| Project/Area Number |
13630061
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
経済政策(含経済事情)
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| Research Institution | HIROSHIMA UNIVERSITY |
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Principal Investigator |
HAMAUZU Tetsuo Faculty of Integrated Arts and Sciences, Professor, 総合科学部, 教授 (50253026)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2001 – 2002
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2002)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥1,500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000)
Fiscal Year 2002: ¥600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000)
Fiscal Year 2001: ¥900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000)
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| Keywords | OPEC / New OPEC / Mini-Oil Price Shock / Oil Reserve / Narrowing of Demand Supply Gap / Production and Price Control / Resource Depletion / Investment Deficient / 第3次石油危機 / 遊休設備の減少 / 原油生産のピーク / 価格帯 / 同時多発テロ / アメリカの制裁 |
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| Research Abstract |
The purpose of this study is to examine recent structural changes in the international oil industry, focusing on oil price surgein 1999 / 2001. The unusual oil price increase started in March 1999 after almost a decade of stagnation drew the attention of not onlyoil business people but also academic because the price surge occurred without any major oil supply disruption by war or revolution like previous ones. Daniel Yergin of Cambride Energy Institute urged a change of oil supply demand balance favorably to OPEC and stressed coming of new OPEC, which may has power to maintain higher oil price. In fact, OPEC soon demonstrated its strengthened power by introducing the price band of between 22 to 28 dollar per barell. Some oil geologists and oil economists linked the price surge with world oil production peak and predicted that the peak in world oil production may even occur before 2004. It seemed that the price surge proved their prediction. Even if abundant oil reserve may remain in the world hostile American foreign policies against Iran, Iraq and Libya prevented western investment in oil exploration in these countries. Decline of surplus oil production capacity to lowest level in the past ten years or so enabled them to stick to production discipline in order to maintain high oil prices.. This situation was not created by OPEC's own effects but by decline of surplus capacity because of low oil prices in the 1990s. Therefore, if high oil price continues for several years oil producers would expand their production capacity and their surplus capacityincrease beyond their control like in the 1990s. It is almost impossible to keep oil price as high as 30 dollars per barell for several years under current market system.
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