| Project/Area Number |
13660212
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Agro-economics
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| Research Institution | Ibaraki University |
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Principal Investigator |
NAKAGAWA Mitsuhiro Ibaraki University, College of Agriculture, Professor, 農学部, 教授 (30302334)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2001 – 2004
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2004)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000)
Fiscal Year 2004: ¥900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 2003: ¥700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000)
Fiscal Year 2002: ¥700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000)
Fiscal Year 2001: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000)
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| Keywords | Food Supply and Demand / Food Production / Resource Environment Management / Econometric Model / GIS / Agriculture and Rural Policy / 計量経済学モデル / 農業政策 |
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| Research Abstract |
According to the prediction by an econometric model, the supply and demand situation of rice and wheat in China is predicted to relax mainly due to the decease in per capita consumption associated with income growth. But the imports of corn and soybean are predicted to increase due to the expansion of domestic livestock sector. Under rising pressure of land and water resource constraint, the agricultural land use is predicted to change according to the natural resource condition associated with the market and policy situation. To realize the sustainable food production the resource management policy is becoming to be important in China.
In Indonesia the import of rice is predicted to increase due to population growth and yield stagnation. The technological progress and the agricultural land development in external islands are important for the nation's food security. In Myanmar rice supply and demand is predicted to be tight mainly due to yield stagnation. The effect of irrigation investment by government is limited and farmer's incentive for growing rice is decreasing associated with low rice price and relatively high fertilizer price. For realizing the sustainable rice production it is important to improve agricultural output and input market system and to arrange various farm policies systematically.
The management system of agricultural resource and environment should be developed based on regional characteristic conditions. Effects of the resource management development are usually observed to be substantial especially in the areas where crude traditional farming have been operated.
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