| Project/Area Number |
13838007
|
|---|
| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
|
| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
|---|
| Section | 一般 |
|---|
| Research Field |
水循環システム
|
|---|
| Research Institution | Kyoto University |
|---|
Principal Investigator |
HORI Tomoharu Kyoto University, Dept. of Global Environmental Studies, Associate Professor, 大学院・地球環境学堂, 助教授 (20190225)
|
|---|
| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
SHIIBA Michiharu Kyoto University, Dept. of Global Environmental Studies, Professor, 大学院・地球環境学堂, 教授 (90026352)
KOJIRI Toshiharu Kyoto University, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Professor, 防災研究所, 教授 (00026353)
|
|---|
| Project Period (FY) |
2001 – 2003
|
| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2003)
|
| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,400,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000)
Fiscal Year 2003: ¥1,400,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000)
Fiscal Year 2002: ¥800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000)
Fiscal Year 2001: ¥1,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000)
|
|---|
| Keywords | water Resources / system dynamics / water demand / economical system / social system / agricultural water use / industrial water use / municipal water use / 水循環 / 水環境 / 地域成長 |
|---|
| Research Abstract |
The purpose of this research is to develop a system dynamics model to express the relation among water resources, population, food production, environmental pollution, and economic activities at a regional scale and to make the influence clear that water availability will give to human activities. To achieve this purpose, the following approaches have been done.
First, water users are categorized into agricultural, industrial and municipal sectors. In agricultural sectors, water demand is modeled by the use of depletion depth in paddy fields. In industrial and municipal sectors, water demand is expressed in terms of multiple regression models through the past industrial and water use statistics data in Japan. Next, water consumption sectors are connected to population sectors and regional water flow sectors. Emigration sectors are introduced to explain the movement of products in one region to others. Finally by putting all the sectors into one system dynamics model, the behavior of the water resources systems in Kinki-region in Japan is analyzed under the possible future scenarios.
From the viewpoint of interaction in a global scale in terms of water resources, a model exploring water needs of the various continents is also developed using system dynamics. Identification of continents with acute water shortage and development limitations will also be possible with this model. Besides focusing on the effects of water on each continent, the model is characterized by its treatment on the various continents as inter-dependant blocks and movements of information and materials have been considered. Several runs of the world continental water model developed here with several GCM scenario results has allowed us to test the impacts of GHG emissions on water availability and the human society.
|
