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Time series analysis for abnormality test and modeling of corrplex system and a study for the derived model from a view point of the theory of stochastic processes

Research Project

Project/Area Number 14340030
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field General mathematics (including Probability theory/Statistical mathematics)
Research InstitutionThe University of Tokyo

Principal Investigator

OKABE Yasunori  The University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Engineering, Professor, 大学院・情報理工学系研究科, 教授 (30028211)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) YANAGAWA Takashi  Kurume University, Graduate School of Science, Professor, バイオ統計センター, 教授 (80029488)
MUROTA Kazuo  The University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Engineering, Professor, 大学院・情報理工学系研究科, 教授 (50134466)
INOUE Akihiko  Hokkaido University, Graduate School of Science, Associate Professor, 大学院・理学研究科, 助教授 (50168431)
HORITA Takehiko  The University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Engineering, Professor, 大学院・情報理工学系研究科, 助教授 (90222281)
MATSUURA Masaya  The University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Engineering, Assistant Professor, 大学院・情報理工学系研究科, 助手 (70334258)
Project Period (FY) 2002 – 2004
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2004)
Budget Amount *help
¥9,100,000 (Direct Cost: ¥9,100,000)
Fiscal Year 2004: ¥2,400,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,400,000)
Fiscal Year 2003: ¥2,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,300,000)
Fiscal Year 2002: ¥4,400,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,400,000)
Keywordsthe theory of KM_2O-Langevin equations / non-linear filtering problem / test for stationarity / test for abnormality / separation property / earthquake / aurora / brain wave / KM_2O-ランジュヴン方程式 / 揺動散逸定理 / 定常解析 / 異常解析 / 決定解析 / 深部低周波地震 / 大脳皮質脳波 / KM_2O-ランジュヴァン方程式 / 非線形情報解析 / 非線形フィルタリング問題 / 定常性テスト Test(S) / 異常性テスト(ABN) / KM_2O-Langevin equations / non-linear information analysis / generating system / non-arbitrage pricing for option / stationarity test / abnormality test / fluctuation-dissipation theorem / from data to model
Research Abstract

We have obtained a formula for calculating a nonlinear filter between two discrete time stochastic processes, by using the theory of KM_2O-Langevin equations. Then we have applied it to a concrete non-linear system consisting of signal process and observation process, and given a solution for the non-linear filtering problem by obtaing an algorithm for calculating the non-linear fiter, which had been unsolved since Kalman-Bucy's work.
By definning the abnormality of time series as the degree of breakdown of stationarity of time series, we have proposed Test(ABN) for catching certain signs of the abnormality of time series, by using Test(S) for testing the stationarity of time series and the generating system of polynomial type for the nonlinear information spaces associated with the discrete time stochastic processes.
By applying Test(ABN) and Test(D) for testing the determinacy of time series to the time series of earthquakes, aurora and brain waves, we have discovered a new qualitative property, to be called separation property, on the region possessing stationarity after the arrival of S-wave for the deep low frequency earthquakes, the occurrence of aurora, and on the total region possessing stationarity of ECoG. This separation property do not appear for the usual earthquakes and EEG.
By treating the continuous time stationary process X whose gloval time evolution is governed by [α, β, γ]-Langevin equation, we have derived both the continuous time KM_2O-Langevin equation describing the local time evolution the stochastic process X and the system of equations characterizing the coefficients appearing in the above equation.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2004 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 2003 Annual Research Report
  • 2002 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (34 results)

All 2005 2004 2003 2002 Other

All Journal Article (18 results) Book (2 results) Publications (14 results)

  • [Journal Article] Chaos and KM_2O-Langevin equations, to appear in Special Issue of the Bulletin of Informatics and Cybernetics in honor of Professor Takashi Yanagawa2005

    • Author(s)
      Yasunori Okabe, Masaya Matsuura
    • Journal Title

      Bulletin of Informatics and Cybernetics Vol.37(To appear)

    • Related Report
      2004 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] On a non-linear filtering problems for discrete time stochastic processes2005

    • Author(s)
      Yasunori Okabe, Masaya Matsuura
    • Journal Title

      J.Math.Soc.Japan (To appear)

    • NAID

      10017178090

    • Related Report
      2004 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Noise-induced enhancement of fluctuation and spurious synchronization in uncoupled type-I intermittent chaotic systems2005

    • Author(s)
      Hiromitsu Suetani, Takehiko Horita, Shin Mizutani
    • Journal Title

      Physical Revue (To appear)

    • Related Report
      2004 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Estimating the correlation dimension from chaotic time series with dynamic noise, MHF Preprint Series, MHF 2004-42004

    • Author(s)
      Atsushi Kawaguchi, Kouji Yonemoto, Takashi Yanagawa
    • Journal Title

      Kyoushuu University COE Program

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2004 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Noise-induced enhancement of fluctuation and spurious synchronization in uncoupled type-I intermittent chaotic systems2004

    • Author(s)
      Hiromitsu Suetani, Takehiko Horita, Sin Mizutani
    • Journal Title

      Physical Revue B69(To appear)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2004 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] On parametric bootstrapping and Bayesian prediction2004

    • Author(s)
      Fushiki, T., Komaki, F., Aihara, K.
    • Journal Title

      Scandinavian Journal of Statistics Vol.31,No.3

      Pages: 403-416

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2004 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Estimating the correlation dimension from chaotic time series with dynamic noise, MHF Preprint Series, MHF 2004-42004

    • Author(s)
      Atsushi Kawaguchi, Kouji Yonemoto, Takashi Yanagawa
    • Journal Title

      Kyushuu University COE Program

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2004 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Noise-induced enhancement of fluctuation and spurious synchronization in uncoupled type-I intermittent chaotic systems2004

    • Author(s)
      Hiromitsu Suetani, Takehiko Horita, Shin Mizutani
    • Journal Title

      To appear in Physical Revue F69

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2004 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] On parametric bootstrapping and Bayesian prediction2004

    • Author(s)
      Fushiki, T., Komaki, F., Aihara, K.
    • Journal Title

      Scandinavian Journal of Statistics Vol.31, No.3

      Pages: 403-416

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2004 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Fundamental properties of M-convex and L-convex functions in continuous variables2004

    • Author(s)
      K.Murota, A.Shioura
    • Journal Title

      IEICE Transactions of Fundamentals of Electronics, Communications and Computer Sciences Vol.E87-A No.5

      Pages: 1042-1052

    • NAID

      110003213000

    • Related Report
      2004 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Prediction of fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index than 1/22004

    • Author(s)
      V.Anh, Akihiko Inoue
    • Journal Title

      Bull.Austral.Math.Soc. Vol.70

      Pages: 321-328

    • Related Report
      2004 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Application of M-convex submodular flow problem to mathematical economics2003

    • Author(s)
      K.Murota, A.Tamura
    • Journal Title

      Japan Journal of Industrial and Applied Mathematics Vol.20,No.3

      Pages: 257-277

    • NAID

      10018380082

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2004 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Application of M-convex submodular flow problem to mathematical economics2003

    • Author(s)
      K.Murota, A.Tamura
    • Journal Title

      Japan Journal of Industrial and Applied Mathematics Vol.20, No.3

      Pages: 257-277

    • NAID

      10018380082

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2004 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] The sectional curvature of AR model manifolds2003

    • Author(s)
      Tanaka, F., Komaki, F.
    • Journal Title

      Tensor Vol.64

      Pages: 131-143

    • Related Report
      2004 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] On a method for detecting certain signs of stock market crashes by non-linear stationarity tests2002

    • Author(s)
      Yasunori Okabe, Masaya Matsuura, Maciej Klimek
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics Vol.3,No.4

      Pages: 443-484

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2004 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Asymptotic behavior for partial autocorrelation function of fractional ARIMA processes2002

    • Author(s)
      Akihiko Inoue
    • Journal Title

      Ann.Appl.Probab. Vol.12

      Pages: 1471-1491

    • NAID

      120000972963

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2004 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] On a method for detecting certain signs of stock market crashes by non-linear stationarity tests2002

    • Author(s)
      Yasunori Okabe, Masaya Matsuura, Maciej Klimek
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics Vol.3, No.4

      Pages: 443-484

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2004 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Asymptotic behavior for partial autocorrelation function of fractional ARIMA processes2002

    • Author(s)
      Akihiko Inoue
    • Journal Title

      Ann.Appl.Prabab. Vol.12

      Pages: 1471-1491

    • NAID

      120000972963

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2004 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Book] 環境と健康:リスク評価のデータサイエンス,職業がんの疫学(岸玲子監修)2004

    • Author(s)
      柳川 堯
    • Publisher
      篠原出版新社
    • Related Report
      2004 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] 時系列解析における揺動散逸原理と実験数学,数理物理シリーズ2002

    • Author(s)
      岡部靖憲
    • Total Pages
      362
    • Publisher
      日本評論社
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2004 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Masaya Matsuura, Yasunori Okabe: "On the theory of KM_2O-Langevin equations for non-stationary and degenerate flows"Journal of Mathematical Society of Japan. Vol.55,No.2. 523-563 (2003)

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] T.Yanagawa, Y.Kobayashi, J.Nagayama: "Assessing the joint effects of chlorinated dioxins, some pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls on thyroid hormone status in Japanese breast-fed infants"Environmetrics. 14. 121-128 (2003)

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Akihiko Inoue: "On the worst conditional expectation"J.Math.Anal.Appl. 286. 237-247 (2003)

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Miguel A.F.Sanjuan, Takehiko Horita, Kazuyuki Aihara: "Opening a closed Hamitonian map"Chaos. Vol.13 No.1. 17-24 (2003)

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Masaya Matsuura: "On a new fluctuation-dissipation theorem for degenerate I stationary flows"Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability. Vol.5 No.3. 369-387 (2003)

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] K.Murota: "Discrete Convex Analysis, SIAM Monographs on Discrete Mathematics and Applications, Vol.10"SIAM. 389 (2003)

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Yasunori Okabe: "On a method of detecting certain signs of stock market crashes by non-linear stationarity tests"International Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics. Vol.3 No.4. 443-484 (2002)

    • Related Report
      2002 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Maciej Klimek: "A geometric proof of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem for the KM_2O-Langevin equations"Hokkaido Mathematical Journal. Vol.31 No.3. 615-628 (2002)

    • Related Report
      2002 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Takehiko Horita: "Singularities in the fluctuation of on-off intermittency"Physical Review E. 65巻. 056217 (2002)

    • Related Report
      2002 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Masaya Matsuura: "On the theory of KM_2O-Langevin equations for non-stationary and degenerate flows"Journal of Mathematical Society of Japan. Vol.55. 1-41 (2003)

    • Related Report
      2002 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Kazuyuki Aihara: "Possible neural coding with inter-event intervals of synchronous firing"Physical Review E. 66巻. 026212 (2002)

    • Related Report
      2002 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Akihiko Inoue: "Asymptotic behavior for partial autocorrelation functions of fractional ARIMA processes"Ann.Appl.Probab.. 12巻. 1471-1491 (2002)

    • Related Report
      2002 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 岡部 靖憲: "時系列解析における揺動散逸原理と実験数学"日本評論社. 362 (2002)

    • Related Report
      2002 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 岡部靖憲: "確率・統計"朝倉書店. 273 (2002)

    • Related Report
      2002 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2002-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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