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Spati-Temporal Dynamics of Bio-Production Systems by Chaos Time Series Analysis

Research Project

Project/Area Number 14360148
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field 農業機械学
Research InstitutionTokyo University of Agriculture and Technology

Principal Investigator

SAKAI Kenshi  Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Institute of Symbiotic Science and Technology, Associate Professor, 大学院・共生科学技術研究部, 助教授 (40192083)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) HOSHINO Yoshinobu  Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Institute of Symbiotic Science and Technology, Associate Professor, 大学院・共生科学技術研究部, 助教授 (00143636)
KANZAKI Nobuo  Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Institute of Symbiotic Science and Technology, Associate Professor, 大学院・共生科学技術研究部, 助教授 (80234152)
SASAO Akira  Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Institute of Symbiotic Science and Technology, Professor, 大学院・共生科学技術研究部, 教授 (70032993)
SHIBUSAWA Sakae  Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Institute of Symbiotic Science and Technology, Professor, 大学院・共生科学技術研究部, 教授 (50149465)
OKAMOTO Hiroshi  Hokkaido University, Professor, 農学研究科, 助手 (40322838)
田村 仁  日本工業大学, 工学部, 専任講師 (60251584)
浅田 真一  神奈川農業総合研究所, 根府川試験場, 主任研究員
Project Period (FY) 2002 – 2005
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2005)
Budget Amount *help
¥14,700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥14,700,000)
Fiscal Year 2005: ¥2,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,600,000)
Fiscal Year 2004: ¥2,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,600,000)
Fiscal Year 2003: ¥3,500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,500,000)
Fiscal Year 2002: ¥6,000,000 (Direct Cost: ¥6,000,000)
KeywordsSpatio-temporal Dynamics / Chaos / Nonlinear Time Series Analysis / Agriculture / Ecological systems / Embedding / Remote Sensing / 隔年結果 / 豊凶 / 生態情報学 / ヤコビ行列推定 / コナラ / ハイパースペクトル画像 / マルチスペクトルイメージング / PCA / PLS / 温州みかん / 国際研究者交流 / 非線形予測 / Wavelet解析 / 国際情報交流 / 国際情報交流2-997
Research Abstract

The concept of deterministic chaos is attractive for ecologists, because it implies an underlying order behind the complexity of ecological systems. Nonlinear time series analysis (NTSA) is used to investigate deterministic chaos. However, most ecological time series are too short to perform NTSA, which requires a time series whose size is in the thousands. On the application of NTSA on ecological dynamics., we need to develop appropriate way to reconstruct ecological dynamics with limited data, and observation. Here we propose "ensemble reconstruction" of the dynamics from a very short ecological time series whose size is smaller than ten. In most tree crops such as citrus, nuts and acorns, the yield alternates between high and low yielding years. Isagi, et al. proposed a theoretical model that describes masting as chaos that can be applied to alternate bearing. We used an ensemble dataset consisting of the yields of 48 individual trees over 7 years to test our proposed method and successfully validated this method by one-year forward prediction three times in 2002, 2003 and 2004. We also show that conventional tools such as Lyapunov spectrum and correlation dimension can be applied with the ensemble reconstruction method. This method offers an essential tool to realize an ecosystem approach towards and/or adaptive control of real world ecosystems and their biodiversity. We also conducted remote sensing to estimate the spatio-temporal dynamics.

Report

(5 results)
  • 2005 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 2004 Annual Research Report
  • 2003 Annual Research Report
  • 2002 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (49 results)

All 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2000 Other

All Journal Article (34 results) Book (2 results) Patent(Industrial Property Rights) (1 results) Publications (12 results)

  • [Journal Article] Transition of Chaotic Motion to Limit Cycle by Intervention of Economic Policy : An Empirical Analysis in Agriculture,2006

    • Author(s)
      Sakai, K., S.Managi, N.Vitatov, K.Demura
    • Journal Title

      J. Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and life Science, (accepted)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] 航空マルチスペクトルイメージングを用いたコナラ収量推定法の開発,2006

    • Author(s)
      秋田鉄也, 酒井憲司ほか
    • Journal Title

      農業機械学会誌,68(4), (印刷中)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] ハイパースペクトル画像解析フレームワークを利用したリモートセンシングソフトウェアの開発2006

    • Author(s)
      岡本博史, 酒井憲司, 村田哲郎, 片岡 崇, 端 俊一
    • Journal Title

      農業情報研究, 15(2),(印刷中)

    • NAID

      130000115756

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] ハイパースペクトル画像解析フレームワークを利用したリモートセンシングソフトウェアの開発2006

    • Author(s)
      岡本博史, 酒井憲司, 村田哲郎, 片岡 崇, 端 俊一
    • Journal Title

      農業情報研究 (掲載決定)

    • NAID

      130000115756

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Hyper-Spectral Imaging to Construct Observers of Citrus Alternate Bearing Dynamics- Estimation of tree crop yields using a neural network modeling2006

    • Author(s)
      Xujun Ye, Kenshi Sakai^*, Leroy Ortega Garciano, Shin-Ichi Asada, Akira Sasao
    • Journal Title

      J. Ecological Modeling (in press)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Transition of Chaotic Motion to Limit Cycle by Intervention of Economic Policy : An Empirical Analysis in Agriculture2006

    • Author(s)
      Sakai, K., S.Managi, N.Vitatov, K.Demura
    • Journal Title

      J.Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and life Science (accepted)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Acorn Yield Estimation Based on Airborne Multi-Spectral Imaging2006

    • Author(s)
      T.Akita, S.Sakai, et al.
    • Journal Title

      JSAM 68(4)(accepted)

    • NAID

      10017622370

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Development of Remote Sensing Software Based on Hyperspectral Imaging Framework2006

    • Author(s)
      H.Okamoto, K.Sakai, et al.
    • Journal Title

      Agricultural Information Research, 2006 15(2)(accepted)

    • NAID

      130000115756

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Object-Oriented Software Framework Developed for Agricultural Hyperspectral Imaging Analysis2006

    • Author(s)
      H.Okamoto, K.Sakai, et al.
    • Journal Title

      Agricultural Information Research, 2006 (accepted)

    • NAID

      130000115411

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Hyper-Spectral Imaging to Construct Observers of Citrus Alternate Bearing Dynamics- Estimation of tree crop yields using a neural network modeling2006

    • Author(s)
      Xujun Ye, Kenshi Sakai*, Leroy Ortega Garciano, Shin-Ichi Asada, Akira Sasao
    • Journal Title

      J.Ecological Modeling (in press)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Airborne hyperspectral imaging for investigating the dynamics of alternate bearing in citrus2006

    • Author(s)
      Xujun Ye, Kenshi Sakai
    • Journal Title

      Agricultural Information Research, 14(4)

      Pages: 261-272

    • NAID

      130003367871

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Hyper-Spectral Imaging to Construct Observers of Citrus Alternate Bearing Dynamics-Estimation of tree crop yields using a neural network modeling2006

    • Author(s)
      Xujun Ye, Kenshi Sakai, Leroy Ortega Garciano, Shin-Ichi Asada, Akira Sasao
    • Journal Title

      J.Ecological Modeling (accepted)

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] ハイパースペクトル画像による多目的解析に対応したオブジェクト指向ソフトウェアフレームワークの構築2006

    • Author(s)
      岡本博史, 酒井憲司, 村田哲郎, 片岡 崇, 端 俊一
    • Journal Title

      農業情報研究 15-2(印刷中)

    • NAID

      130000115411

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 航空マルチスペクトルイメージングを用いたコナラ収量推定法の開発2006

    • Author(s)
      秋田鉄也, 酒井憲司ほか
    • Journal Title

      農業機械学会誌 (accepted)

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Airborne hyperspectral imaging for investigating the dynamics of alternate bearing in citrus2005

    • Author(s)
      Xujun Ye, Kenshi Sakai
    • Journal Title

      Agricultural Information Research 14(4),

    • NAID

      130003367871

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Development of AN "Auto-Regressive Error Distribution Function(AREF)" to Investigate Hierarchical Orders of Soil Cutting Force Data in a Yolo Loam Field.2005

    • Author(s)
      Sakai, K., P.Andrade-Sanchez, S K.Upadhyaya:
    • Journal Title

      Transaction of ASBAE 48(6),

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] On correlations and fractal characteristics of time series2005

    • Author(s)
      Vitanov, N., Sakai, K., Elka D.Yankulova
    • Journal Title

      J. of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics, 35(2)

      Pages: 73-90

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Experimentally Obtained Bifurcation Phenomenon Chaotic Tractor Vibrating in Time and Frequency Domain2005

    • Author(s)
      Garciao, L., K.Sakai, R.Torisu:
    • Journal Title

      Int. J. of Bifurcation and Chaos 15-2

      Pages: 225-231

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Airborne hyperspectral imaging for investigating the dynamics of alternate bearing in citrus2005

    • Author(s)
      Xujun Ye, Kenshi Sakai
    • Journal Title

      Agricultural Information Research 14(4)

      Pages: 261-272

    • NAID

      130003367871

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Development of AN "Auto-Regressive Error Distribution Function(AREF)" to Investigate Hierarchical Orders of Soil Cutting Force Data in a Yolo Loam Field.2005

    • Author(s)
      Sakai, K., P.Andrade-Sanchez, S K.Upadhyaya
    • Journal Title

      Transaction of ASBAE (American Society of Biological & Agricultural Engineers) 48(6)

      Pages: 1-8

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] ON CORRELATIONS AND FRACTAL CHARACTERISTICS OF TIME SERIES2005

    • Author(s)
      Vitanov, N., Sakai, K., Elka D.Yankulova
    • Journal Title

      J.of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics vol.35 No 2

      Pages: 73-90

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Experimentally Obtained Bifurcation Phenomenon Chaotic Tractor Vibrating in Time and Frequency Domain2005

    • Author(s)
      Garciao, L., K.Sakai, R.Torisu
    • Journal Title

      Int.J.of Bifurcation and Chaos 15-2

      Pages: 225-231

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Experimentally Obtained Bifurcation Phenomenon Chaotic Tractor Vibrating in Time and Frequency Domain2005

    • Author(s)
      L.Garciao, K.Sakai, R.Torisu
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos 15-1

      Pages: 225-231

    • Related Report
      2004 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 撮像画像による物体堆積量の計測手法2004

    • Author(s)
      田村 仁, 酒井憲司:
    • Journal Title

      電気学会論文誌C, 124(3),

    • NAID

      10012646318

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Complexity of Agricultural Commodity Cycle : A Chaotic Time Series Analysis2004

    • Author(s)
      Sakai, K., S.Managi, K.Demura
    • Journal Title

      Int.J.of Agricultural Resource, Governance and Ecology 3(3/4)

      Pages: 266-287

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Method of Measurement Amount of Piled-up Object Using Texture Image of Them2004

    • Author(s)
      H.Tamura, K.Sakai
    • Journal Title

      IEEJ Trans Vol.124, No.3

      Pages: 647-652

    • NAID

      10012646318

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] 撮像画像による物体堆積量の計測手法2004

    • Author(s)
      田村仁, 酒井憲司
    • Journal Title

      電気学会論文誌C 124・3

      Pages: 647-652

    • NAID

      10012646318

    • Related Report
      2004 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Complexity of Agricultural Commodity Cycle : A Chaotic Time Series Analysis2004

    • Author(s)
      K.sakai, S.managi, K.Demura
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Agricultural Resource, Governance and Ecology 3(3/4)

      Pages: 266-287

    • Related Report
      2004 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] ウンシュウミカン隔年結果現象のモデリング-果数のアンサンブルデータを用いた線形ダイナミクス同定-2003

    • Author(s)
      野口優子, 酒井憲司^*, 浅田真一, Leroy Garciano, 笹尾彰:
    • Journal Title

      農業機械学会誌 65(6)

      Pages: 55-61

    • NAID

      10011903448

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] シロクローバ-冬雑草系競争ダイナミックス-モデルパラメータの推定と双安定ダイナミクスの同定-2003

    • Author(s)
      駄本良平, 酒井憲司^*, 澁澤 栄, 笹尾 彰:
    • Journal Title

      日本草地学会誌 49(2),

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Modeling of Alternate Bearing in Satsuma Mandarin2003

    • Author(s)
      Y.Noguchi, K.Sakai, et al.
    • Journal Title

      JSAM 65(6)

      Pages: 55-61

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] The White Clover-Winter Weed System Competition Dynamics.2003

    • Author(s)
      R.Damoto, K.Sakai, et al.
    • Journal Title

      Grassland Science 49(2)

      Pages: 141-148

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] テクスチャ画像解析によるシロクローバとイネ科雑草群落の判別2002

    • Author(s)
      田村 仁, 阿刀田央一, 酒井憲司^*:
    • Journal Title

      農業機械学会誌, 64(1),

    • NAID

      10012318865

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Texture Image Analysis for Discrimination Colonies of Clover and Grass Weed2002

    • Author(s)
      H.Tamura, O.Atoda, K.Sakai
    • Journal Title

      JSAM 64(1)

      Pages: 43-51

    • NAID

      10012318865

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Book] 複雑現象工学(農のカオス解析)2005

    • Author(s)
      産業総合研究所編(酒井憲司分担執筆)
    • Total Pages
      396
    • Publisher
      プレアデス出版
    • Related Report
      2004 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] 農のカオス解析,複雑系工学(産業総合研究所編)2004

    • Author(s)
      酒井憲司
    • Total Pages
      396
    • Publisher
      プレアデス社
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Patent(Industrial Property Rights)] 特許2000

    • Inventor(s)
      酒井憲司
    • Industrial Property Rights Holder
      JST
    • Filing Date
      2000
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 駄本良平, 酒井憲司 ほか: "シロクローバ冬雑草競争ダイナミクス"Grassland Science. 49・2. 141-148 (2003)

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 野口優子, 酒井憲司 ほか: "ウンシュウミカン隔年結果現象のモデリング"農業機械学会誌. 65・6. 55-61 (2003)

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 田村仁, 酒井憲司: "撮像画像による草の乾物質量の推定"第9回画像センシングシンポジウム講演論文集. 111-116 (2003)

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 田村仁, 酒井憲司: "撮像画像による物体堆積量の計測手法"電気学会論文誌C. 124・3. 647-652 (2004)

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] N.K.Vitanov, K.Sakai: "Upper bounds on the number of significant of noise influenced oscillations of moving machines"Systems Analysis Modeling Simulation. 43. 815-828 (2003)

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] L.Garciao, K.Sakai, R.Torisu: "Experimentally Obtained Bifurcation Phenomenon Chaotic Tract Vibrating in Time and Frequency Domain"International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos. (掲載決定). (2004)

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 産業総合研究所編(酒井憲司分担執筆): "複雑現象工学(農のカオス解析)"産業総合研究所(予定). 350 (2004)

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 駄本良平: "シロクローバ冬雑草競争ダイナミクス"Grassland Science. 49・2(印刷中). (2003)

    • Related Report
      2002 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 野口優子: "ウンシュウミカン隔年結果現象のモデリング"農業機械学会誌. 掲載予定.

    • Related Report
      2002 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 酒井憲司: "耕地の非線形現象"電子情報学会技術研究報告. 102・724. 99-101 (2003)

    • Related Report
      2002 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 野口優子: "温州みかん隔年結果現象のヤコビ行列推定によるダイナミクスの再構成と予測"電子情報学会技術研究報告. 102・725. 89-92 (2003)

    • Related Report
      2002 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] K.Sakai: "Modeling and Prediction Technique for Alternate Bearing Data Based on Deterministic Chaos Theory"ASAE Paper. 02347. (2002)

    • Related Report
      2002 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2002-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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