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Modeling effects of subjective probability expressions on decision making

Research Project

Project/Area Number 14510093
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field 実験系心理学
Research InstitutionTOKYO INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

Principal Investigator

YAMAGISHI Kimihiko  TOKYO INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, Graduate School of Decision Science of Technology, Associate Professor, 大学院・社会理工学研究科, 助教授 (70286136)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) NAKAGAWA Masanori  TOKYO INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, Graduate School of Decision Science of Technology, Professor, 大学院・社会理工学研究科, 教授 (40155685)
MUTA Hiromitsu  TOKYO INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, Graduate School of Decision Science of Technology, Professor, 大学院・社会理工学研究科, 教授 (70090925)
Project Period (FY) 2002 – 2003
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2003)
Budget Amount *help
¥2,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,900,000)
Fiscal Year 2003: ¥1,500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000)
Fiscal Year 2002: ¥1,400,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000)
KeywordsProbability / Decision Making / Neural Networks / 意志決定 / 主観確率 / 選択 / 不確実下の決定 / 認知過程 / 言語確率
Research Abstract

The directionality of verbal uncertainty expressions, or verbal probabilities, was investigated. A "positive" directionality draws the focus of communication toward the prospect that an uncertain event may materialize in the future. Conversely, a "negative" directionality draws the focus more toward expecting that an uncertain event may not materialize. Our experiments confirmed the existence of directionality in Japanese terms of uncertainty. Moreover, in out study of binary choice between gambles with verbal probabilities, we found a new kind of preference reversal phenomenon. Explanatory models were developed.

Report

(3 results)
  • 2003 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 2002 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (20 results)

All Other

All Publications (20 results)

  • [Publications] Kimihiko Yamagishi: "Effects of valence and framing in decision making : Assessing decision makers' perceived domains of chocie."Japanese Psychological Research. 44. 209-227 (2002)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kimihiko Yamagishi: "Proximity compatibility, and noncomplementarity in subjective probability"Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 87. 136-155 (2002)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kimihiko Yamagishi: "Effects of valence and framing in decision making II : Estimating subjective weighting."Japanese Psychological Research. 45. 173-187 (2003)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kimihiko Yamagishi: "Facilitating normative judgments of conditional probability : Frequency or Nested Sets?"Experimental Psychology. 50. 97-106 (2003)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 相原永, 中川正宣, 山岸侯彦: "多属性意思決定過程のニューラルネットワークによるモデル化"日本認知科学会第20回大会発表論文集. 20. 64-65 (2003)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Yamagishi, K.: "Effects of valence and framing in decision making : Assessing decision makers' perceived domains of choice."Japanese Psychological Research. 44. 209-227 (2002)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Yamagishi, K.: "Proximity, compatibility, and noncomplementarity in subjective probability."Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 87. 136-155 (2002)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Yamagishi, K.: "Effects of valence and framing in decision making II : Estimating subjective weighting."Japanese Psychological Research. 45. 173-187 (2003)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Yamagishi, K.: "Directionality, Anchoring, and Preference Reversals in Verbal Probabilities."(submitted for publication). (2004)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kimihiko Yamagishi: "Effects of valence and framing in decision making II : Estimating subjective weighting."Japanese Psychological Research. 45. 173-187 (2003)

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Kimihiko Yamagishi: "Facilitating normative judgments of conditional probability : Frequency or Nested Sets?"Experimental Psychology. 50. 97-106 (2003)

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 相原永, 中川正宣, 山岸侯彦: "多属性意思決定過程のニューラルネットワークによるモデル化"日本認知科学会第20回大会発表論文集. 20. 64-65 (2003)

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 山岸侯彦: "言語確率の方向性に起因する選好逆転現象"日本心理学会第67回大会発表論文集. 67. 889 (2003)

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 富川源太, 山岸侯彦: "選択-マッチングによる選好逆転現象に対する整列可能性の影響"日本認知科学会第20回大会発表論文集. 20. 60-61 (2003)

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 本田秀仁, 山岸侯彦: "直観的判断課程と規則的判断課程における言語確率の方向性の影響"日本心理学会第67回大会発表論文集. 67. 892 (2003)

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 山岸侯彦: "Effects of valence and framing in decision making : Assessing decision makers' perceived domains of choice"Japanese Psychological Research. 44. 209-227 (2002)

    • Related Report
      2002 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 相原永, 中川正宣, 山岸侯彦: "多属性意思決定過程のニューラルネットワークによるモデル化"日本行動計量学会第30回大会発表論文抄録集. 1. 226-227 (2002)

    • Related Report
      2002 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 山岸侯彦: "規範的確率判断の促進に関する「入れ子集合仮説」対「自然頻度仮説」"日本教育工学会第18会大会講演論文集. 1. 693-694 (2002)

    • Related Report
      2002 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 山岸侯彦: "言語確率の方向性と選好のパラドクス"日本認知科学会第19回大会発表論文集. 1. 30-31 (2002)

    • Related Report
      2002 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 山岸侯彦: "言語確率の係留過程による選好の逆転"日本心理学会第66回大会発表論文集. 1. 801 (2002)

    • Related Report
      2002 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2002-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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