| Budget Amount *help |
¥2,700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000)
Fiscal Year 2004: ¥500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000)
Fiscal Year 2003: ¥1,400,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000)
Fiscal Year 2002: ¥800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000)
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| Research Abstract |
The purpose of the research is to construct a Computable General Equilibrium(CGE) Model of the Russian Economy which includes the sub-models of the extractive industry and of the financial sector.
Additional information on household saving behavior was needed to construct the financial sub-model : we determined that the official statistics and the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey sponsored by the World Bank and the US government could not provide with information much enough to build it We organized a pilot survey to investigate households' attitude to saving in the two Russian regions. The survey, 250 household samples for each region, gave a new class of information which had never been collected in Russia ; the information increased the plausibility of the financial sub-model very much. It was strongly hoped to bring the pilot survey to a full-scale survey, it was, however, not realized because of the organizational and financial problems in the Russian counterpart institution.
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Afterwards, we concentrated on estimating a Russian flow of funds table being based on solely macro data. The table was completed at the end of the research term ; it was, however, turned out not very reliable. The numbers in the table have changed very large before and after mathematical balancing.
The research made the construction of the Russian financial sub-model advanced very much ; it was, however, still not possible to build a plausible financial sub-model.
Modeling the Russian extractive industry was successfully completed. A CGE model comprising the oil and gas institutional sector was build being based on national accounts, I-O tables, and company financial reports. The results of the analyses were published in referred journals. Standard procedures to convert company accounting data into national accounting data and to make a static CGE model from national accounting data have been developed and published in the form of occasional and discussion papers.
The constructed Oil and Gas CGE model was static; it is, therefore, not applicable to analysis of the long-term development of the Russian economy. Although the research term was ended, I am advancing the research in the two directions : (1)to construct a Russian dynamic CGE model with a overly simplified version of the flow of funds table, (2)to build a Japanese dynamic CGE model with a Japanese flow of funds table in the same format as that of the Russian table. Less
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