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Observation and modeling of the perceptual errors of service level on route choice for efficient transportation network planning

Research Project

Project/Area Number 14550532
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field 交通工学・国土計画
Research InstitutionShibaura Institute of Technology

Principal Investigator

IWAKURA Seiji  Shibaura Institute of Technology, Dept.of Civil Eng., Professor, 工学部, 教授 (20223373)

Project Period (FY) 2002 – 2005
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2005)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000)
Fiscal Year 2005: ¥1,700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,700,000)
Fiscal Year 2004: ¥500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000)
Fiscal Year 2003: ¥600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000)
Fiscal Year 2002: ¥800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000)
Keywordslevel of service / perception error / habitual behavior / discrete choice model / route choice / diffusion process model / panel data / Oedo line / 選択肢集合モデル / PLCモデル / 東海道本線 / 交通行動 / 経路選択 / 交通ネットワーク / 需要定着過程 / 習慣強度
Research Abstract

The mode choice model and route choice model using the individual choice model for travel demand analysis are used for a lot of transportation planning in Japan. However, some overestimated travel demand results have been faced harsh public criticism in recent years. These criticisms are occurred during approximately several years after starting operation service in many cases.
However, we think that a certain fixed period is required for advancement in user's awareness of changed transportation network and the recognition of actual service level to the transportation system. When a major change of a transportation system in the past was made, memory of the past service level may be fixed.
First this study presents some observation results on the urban railway passengers' perceptual errors of railway service level and time-series number of passenger of new railway in Tokyo metropolitan area. The results of this survey are that observation results are explicitly confirmed perceptual errors on travel time and congestion rate and that perceptual error is attributable to the past experience of route service level, satisfaction level of service and information-gathering ability. These empirical results show that reported values for alternatives are systematically biased, rather than being randomly misperceived.
Perceptual error becomes a major issue in revealed preference analysis when we make travel demand forecasting models. Therefore, we proposed some route choice behavior models with perceptual error of transportation service level estimation model. This study shows estimation method of perceptual alternative routes by choice set generation model using parameterized logit captivity, and simultaneous estimation model of route choice and the perceptual transportation service level.

Report

(5 results)
  • 2005 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 2004 Annual Research Report
  • 2003 Annual Research Report
  • 2002 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (4 results)

All 2005 2004 Other

All Journal Article (3 results) Publications (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] 新たに開業した鉄道の需要定着に関する検討2005

    • Author(s)
      新倉, 土居, 兵藤, 岩倉
    • Journal Title

      土木学会・土木計画学研究講演集 32(CD-ROM)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report 2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] An examination on the diffusion process of travel demand in the new urban railway2005

    • Author(s)
      Niikura, Doi, Hyodo, Iwakura
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of Infrastructure Planning Vol.32 (CD-ROM)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] 経路選択行動におけるサービス水準の知覚誤差2004

    • Author(s)
      岩倉成志, 新倉淳史, 高平剛
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集 765

      Pages: 39-48

    • NAID

      10012800697

    • Related Report
      2004 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 新倉淳史, 高橋良幸, 岩倉成志: "都営大江戸線を対象とした新規開業路線の需要定着過程に関する分析"土木学会第58回年次学術講演会講演概要集. 58(CD-ROM). (2003)

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2002-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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