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Economic Analysis on Effects of Recurrent Resource Management on Global Warming through Global Timber Trading

Research Project

Project/Area Number 15402003
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section海外学術
Research Field Environmental impact assessment/Environmental policy
Research InstitutionUniversity of Miyazaki

Principal Investigator

YUKUTAKE Kiyoshi  University of Miyazaki, Faculty of Agriculture, Professor, 農学部, 教授 (30174832)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) KOBAE Shoicihro  University of Miyazaki, Faculty of Agriculture, Professor, 農学部, 教授 (10038276)
KATO Takashi  Forest research Inst., Shikoku Branch, Depty, 四国支所長 (40353643)
SHOJI Isao  University of Miyazaki, Graduate School of Systems and Information Engineering, University of Tsukuba Professor, 大学院・システム情報工学研究科, 教授 (20282329)
YOSHIMOTO Atsusi  Tohoku Univ., Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Associated Professor, 大学院・環境科学研究科, 助教授 (10264350)
FUJIKAKE Icihro  University of Miyazaki, Faculty of Agriculture, Associated Professor, 農学部, 助教授 (90243071)
Project Period (FY) 2003 – 2006
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2006)
Budget Amount *help
¥11,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥11,900,000)
Fiscal Year 2006: ¥3,000,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000)
Fiscal Year 2005: ¥2,100,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,100,000)
Fiscal Year 2004: ¥1,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,900,000)
Fiscal Year 2003: ¥4,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,900,000)
KeywordsGlobal warning issue / Carbon evaluation / Forest resources / Reforestation abandantment / Imports of North American timber / Sustainable management / Carbon tax / Timber demand and supply / 炭素税導入 / 森林転用 / 木材需給 / 持続的森林経営 / スギ材利用 / 集成材 / 木材貿易・森林資源モデル / 循環型資源管理 / 温暖化防止策 / 構造別住宅建築需要体系 / 米材 / 状態空間モデル / 京都議定書 / 排出量削減枠
Research Abstract

The results of our research can be summarized as follows.
1)The significance of forest management practices on carbon sequestration for mitigating global warming was analyzed in the forest resource management model (DP-KYSS: dynamic programming model for Kyushu stand simulator). This analysis showed that thinning can prevents reduction of carbon sequestration. Considering subsidies as a compensation for carbon loss by thinning, the evaluation of carbon showed that the present net value of cost per unit carbon loss became the highest for the rotation age of 35 years and the minimum for the rotation age of 50 to 65 years dependent upon the subsidy measure. At the rotation age of 100 years, the present net value of cost per unit carbon loss was found to be 44.56 to 110.13 Euro/Ct. The analyses showed that lengthening the period for subsidy would reduce the value of carbon. Subsidy pays more with more thinning reducing carbon sequestered in a forest stand.
2) We analyzed the economic mechani … More sms around forest conversion to other land uses using the data for 442 towns in Kyushu 7 prefectures in 1990s. We obtained the results that three variables, i.e., the percentage of plantation forests, the ratio of land owned by in-town owners, the density of forestry workers reduce forest conversion to each of leisure use, industrial use and residential use, which suggests that forestry management on-going under favorable conditions can brake forest conversion.
3) We focused on Miyazaki Prefecture where forestry is the most vigorous and replantation abandonment is the most pervasive in Japan. We found that most forests harvested are replanted in the same year if it is replanted, and that 65% of harvested lands are replanted by the next year, leaving other 35% possibly abandoned.
4) The change of timber imports from North American which has the largest share in the timber imported to Japan can have more significant effect on the demand for NZ timber than that for domestic timber. 10% increase of both housing starts and oil prices in the US only induces 1% increase of domestic timber purchased. This means that even if the decrease of timber imports from North America is realized, the utilization of Japan's forest resources which has now the largest ever volume is still stagnated and thus sustainable management of the nation's forest is not an easy task.
5) We examined the effects of carbon tax on the demand of wooden houses using the by-structure housing demand equations system. Results illustrates that we cannot expect large increase of wooden housing demand from the introduction of carbon tax if the tax rate is in the range that the government is now presenting. In order to accelerate the announcement effect of new tax introduction, the enlightenment activity to appeal consumers the fact that wooden houses are good in terms of fossil fuel consumption, and other activities are needed to connect consumers to wooden house.
6) We presented a forest sector model for lumber markets with a focus on eight Japanese regions (Tohoku, Kanto, Hokuriku, Chubu, Kinki, Chugoku, Shikoku, and Kyushu), China and Korea. With the estimated price elasticities for these regions, we analyzed the characteristics of the supply and demand structure through the spatial and inter-temporal partial equilibrium market model called JAFSEM (Japanese Forest Sector Model). Our results showed the following; 1) the price elasticities of lumber demand and supply in the whole are small in Kyushu and Chugoku, where production area of domestic timber and the US processed lumber, respectively is active, 2) the price elasticities of lumber demand is big in Kanto, such a prefecture with big consumption area, 3) Japanese regional lumber demand except Kyushu would increase, and 4) the additional demand for lumber would be met by Korea and China. Less

Report

(5 results)
  • 2006 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 2005 Annual Research Report
  • 2004 Annual Research Report
  • 2003 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (38 results)

All 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 Other

All Journal Article (28 results) Book (8 results) Publications (2 results)

  • [Journal Article] 宮崎県における再造林放棄に関する計量分析 20072007

    • Author(s)
      行武 潔, 藤掛一郎, 中田武志
    • Journal Title

      九州森林研究 62

      Pages: 1-7

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Analysis of Lumber Price Elasticity and Demand/Supply among eight Japanese Regions, China and Korea vol.6, 115-128, 20072007

    • Author(s)
      Yukutake K., Yoshimoto, A.
    • Journal Title

      FORMATH (Japan Society of Forest Planning) 6

      Pages: 115-128

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] 宮崎県における再造林放棄に関する計量分析20072007

    • Author(s)
      行武 潔, 藤掛一郎, 中田武志
    • Journal Title

      九州森林研究 62

      Pages: 1-7

    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 人工林の成熟が立木市場に与えた影響-スギ立木市場の計量経済分析-2006

    • Author(s)
      藤掛一郎
    • Journal Title

      林業経済 59-4

      Pages: 13-26

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report 2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Optimal dividend policy of life insurance company with policyholders' dynamically time inconsistent preferences2006

    • Author(s)
      Yang, Y., Shoji, I., Kanehiro, S.
    • Journal Title

      Advances and Applications in Statistics 6

      Pages: 1-15

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Optimal dividend policy of life insurance company with policy holders' dynamically time inconsistent preferences2006

    • Author(s)
      Yang, Y., Shoji, I., Kanehiro, S.
    • Journal Title

      Advances and Applications in Statistics 6

      Pages: 1-15

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Regression analysis of reforestation abandonment in Miyazaki Prefecture2006

    • Author(s)
      Yukutake, Fujikake, I., Nakada, T.
    • Journal Title

      Kyushu Journal of Forest Research 62

      Pages: 1-6

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Econometric analysis of North American Timber imports influence to Demand/Supply Model of Timber in Japan2006

    • Author(s)
      Yukutake, K,.Fukushima, K., Fujikake I.
    • Journal Title

      FORMATH (Japan Society of Forest Planning) 5

      Pages: 127-141

    • NAID

      130007852344

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Carbon Pricing Through Subsidy Payment for Thinning Activities in Japan2006

    • Author(s)
      Atsushi Yoshimoto
    • Journal Title

      SCANDINAVIAN FOREST ECONOMICS 41

      Pages: 415-428

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Timber Demand/Supply Analysis of East Asian Timber Trade-Trade among eight Japanese Regions, China, and Korea2006

    • Author(s)
      Yukutake K., Yoshimoto, A.
    • Journal Title

      SCANDINAVIAN FOREST ECONOMICS 41

      Pages: 429-440

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Optimal dividend policy of life insurance company with policyholders'dynamically time inconsistent preferences2006

    • Author(s)
      Yang, Y., Shoji, I., Kanehiro, S.
    • Journal Title

      Advances and Applications in Statistics 6

      Pages: 1-15

    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Optimal dividend policy of life insurance company with policyholders' dynamically time inconsistent preferences2006

    • Author(s)
      Yang,.Y., Shoji, I., Kanehiro, S.
    • Journal Title

      Advances and Applications in Statistics 6

      Pages: 1-15

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] The delay of thinning and real stumpage price : An analysis using proportional hazard model of elapsed time to first thinning2005

    • Author(s)
      Fujikake, I.
    • Journal Title

      J. of Jpn. Fore. Soc. 87(4)

      Pages: 323-330

    • NAID

      110006278792

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Time Series Analysis on Timber Prices from the National Statistics and Two Private Auction Markets in Kyushu, Japan2005

    • Author(s)
      Yukutake, K., Higuchi, Y., Yoshimoto, A.
    • Journal Title

      Multipurpose Inventory for the Aged Artificial Forest (Japan Society of Forest Planning Press)

      Pages: 83-105

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Time Series Analysis on Timber Prices from the National Statistics and Two Private Auction Markets in Kyushu, Japan2005

    • Author(s)
      K.Yukutake, Y.Higuchi, A.Yoshimoto
    • Journal Title

      Multipurpose Inventory for the Aged Artificial Forest, Japan Society of Forest Planning Press (MAAF-2003). 83-105

      Pages: 83-105

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Feasibility of forestry management by (from) Demand/Supply Model of Timber in Japan2005

    • Author(s)
      Kioyshi Yukutake, Icihro Fujikake
    • Journal Title

      The XXII IUFRO World Congress (Brinsbane, Australia)

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 炭素税が木造住宅建築需要に与える影響-構造別住宅建築需要体系の推定とシミュレーション-2005

    • Author(s)
      藤掛 一郎
    • Journal Title

      林業経済 58・1

      Pages: 1-19

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 間伐遅れと実質立木価格-初回間伐までの経過時間の比例危険率モデルによる分析-2005

    • Author(s)
      藤掛 一郎
    • Journal Title

      日本森林学会誌 87・4

      Pages: 323-330

    • NAID

      110006278792

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Nonparametric estimation of diffusion coefficients from discretely observed data, The 5th International Conference on Statistical Finance and Financial Engineering2005

    • Author(s)
      Shoji, I.
    • Journal Title

      Hitotsubashi University March

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Lumber demand and changes of lumber use for wood housing in Miyazaki Prefecture2004

    • Author(s)
      Yukutake, K., Watanabe, T., Fujikake, I.
    • Journal Title

      Kyushu Journal of Forest Research 58

      Pages: 5-8

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Estimation of diffusion coefficients with a nonparametric drift function2004

    • Author(s)
      I, Shoji
    • Journal Title

      2004年度統計関連学会連合大会,富士大学,2004年9月

    • Related Report
      2004 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Nonparametric estimation of diffusion coefficients from discretely observed data2004

    • Author(s)
      I, Shoji
    • Journal Title

      2004 SRCCS Probability Workshop, Seoul National University 25-26

      Pages: 17-23

    • Related Report
      2004 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 炭素税が木造住宅建築需要に与える影響-構造別住宅建築需要体系の推定とシミュレーション-2004

    • Author(s)
      藤掛 一郎
    • Journal Title

      林業経済研究

    • Related Report
      2004 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 宮崎県の木造住宅使用部材の変化と木材需要2004

    • Author(s)
      行武 潔, 渡辺 拓, 藤掛一郎
    • Journal Title

      九州森林研究 58

    • Related Report
      2004 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Estimation of diffusion parameters by a nonparametric drift function Model2003

    • Author(s)
      Shoji, I.
    • Journal Title

      Intelligent Data Engineering and Automated Learning, Lecture Notes in Computer Science 2690

      Pages: 221-217

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Nonparametric estimation of diffusion coefficients from discretely observed data2003

    • Author(s)
      Shoji, I.
    • Journal Title

      Intelligent Data Engineering and Automated Learning, Lecture Notes in Computer Science 2690

      Pages: 221-217

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] The effect of carbon tax on wooden house construction demand : Estimation and simulation of the house construction demand system in structure types

    • Author(s)
      Fujikake, I.
    • Journal Title

      Forest Economy 58(1)

      Pages: 1-9

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] The effects of maturity in planted forests on stumpage market : Econometric analysis of sugi stumpage market

    • Author(s)
      Fujikake, I.
    • Journal Title

      Forest Economy 59(4)

      Pages: 13-26

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Book] 日本8地域と中国、韓国における製材品の価格弾性値と需給に関する分析-FORMATH Kyushu 2006-,森林資源管理と数理モデル(吉本・近藤・広嶋編)vol.62007

    • Author(s)
      行武 潔, 吉本敦
    • Publisher
      森林計画学会(FORMATH研究会)
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Book] 日本8地域と中国、韓国における製材品の価格弾性値と需給に関する分析-FORMATH KYUSHU 2006-,森林資源管理と数理モデル(吉本・近藤・広嶋編)vol.62007

    • Author(s)
      行武 潔, 吉本敦
    • Publisher
      森林計画学会(FORMATH研究会)
    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] わが国木材市場における米材輸入効果の計量分析-FORMATHKYOTO 2005-,森林資源管理と数理モデル(吉本・近藤・広嶋編),vol.52006

    • Author(s)
      行武 潔, 福島一登, 藤掛一郎
    • Publisher
      森林計画学会(FORMATH研究会)
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Book] Carbon Pricing Through Subsidy Payment for Thinning Activities in Japan2006

    • Author(s)
      Atsushi Yoshimoto
    • Publisher
      北欧森林経済学会 (SSFEseminar_06) : 41、 Sweden
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Book] Timber Demand/Supply Analysis of East Asian Timber Trade-Trade among eight Japanese Regions, China, and Korea -2006

    • Author(s)
      Kiyoshi Yukutake, Atsushi Yoshimoto
    • Publisher
      北欧森林経済学会 (SSFEseminar_06) : 41、 Sweden
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Book] わが国木材市場における米材輸入効果の計量分析-FORMATH KYOTO 2005-、森林資源管理と数理モデル(吉本・近藤・広嶋編)、vol.52006

    • Author(s)
      行武 潔, 福島一登, 藤掛一郎
    • Publisher
      森林計画学会(FORMATH研究会)
    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] Carbon Pricing Through Subsidy Payment for Thinning Activities in Japan2006

    • Author(s)
      Atsushi Yoshimoto
    • Publisher
      北欧森林経済学会(,SSFEseminar_06) : 41, Sweden
    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] Timber Demand/Supply Analysis of East Asian Timber Trade- Trade among eight Japanese Regions, China, and Korea-2006

    • Author(s)
      Kiyoshi Yukutake, Atsushi Yoshimoto
    • Publisher
      北欧森林経済学会(,SSFEseminar_06) : 41, Sweden
    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Shoji, I.: "Estimation of diffusion parameters by nonparametric drift function model"Intelligent Data Engineering and Automated Learning, Lecture Notes in Computer Science. 2690. 217-221 (2003)

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Yukutake, K., Higuchi, Y., Yoshimoto, A.: "Time Series Analysis on Timber Prices from Two Private Auction Markets in Kyushu Japan"IUFRO : 4.02.02. - Multipurpose inventory. 1-34 (2004)

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2003-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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