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The Impact of Real Exchange Rates Changes on Trade Structure of Japan, the United States, and Fast Asia --Positive Analysis using Price Indices of Trade by products--

Research Project

Project/Area Number 15530176
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Economic policy
Research InstitutionSaitama University

Principal Investigator

NAGATA Masahiro  Saitama Univ., Liberal Arts, Professor, 教養学部, 教授 (50261871)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) NARITA Junji  Aoyama Gakuin Univ., Economics, Professor, 経済学部, 教授 (00133695)
Project Period (FY) 2003 – 2005
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2005)
Budget Amount *help
¥2,500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000)
Fiscal Year 2005: ¥700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000)
Fiscal Year 2004: ¥900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 2003: ¥900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000)
KeywordsEast Asia / real exchange rate / price index / volume index / financial crisis / Japan / United States / intra-firm trade / 貿易構造 / 人民元
Research Abstract

We developed Trade Indices database of 2003-2005. By using these indices, we made a quantitative analysis on capital goods trade among Pacific rim countries.
1.The major source behind the economic recovery in the Asian countries after 1999 was the rapid expansion of their net exports. Their net exports expanded, because the real exchange rates were sustained at a low level thanks to low inflation rates. The current levels of the real exchange rates in many Asian countries are still lowest after the 1980s, which is quite different from the situation after the financial crises of Russia and Latin American countries such as Mexico. In many Asian countries which experienced financial crises, inflation rates keep low in spite of their massive decline of their currencies. The main factor of the low inflation rates was the decline in the expected inflation rates.
2.While China has a big trade surplus of finished capital goods against the United States, it also has a substantial trade deficit of parts against Japan and semi-advanced Asian countries. One of the reasons why the Asian countries have growing trade surplus of capital goods against China is the real exchange rate appreciation of yuan against the East Asian currencies after the Asian currency crisis of 1977, even though it somewhat depreciated against US dollar and yen after the crises.
3.Because many multinational corporations try to avoid regulations of host countries, such as restriction on repatriating their profits, they tend to put different prices from the market prices (transfer pricing) on their intra-firm trade. According to our estimation, the price elasticity of both exports and imports are lower in the intra-firm trade compared with the non intra-firm trade. This shows that the volume of intra-firm trade is less sensitive than that of ordinary trade to the real exchange rate fluctuations.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2005 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 2004 Annual Research Report
  • 2003 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (13 results)

All 2005 2004 2003 Other

All Journal Article (11 results) Publications (2 results)

  • [Journal Article] 日本の資本財貿易から見た東アジアの発展形態2005

    • Author(s)
      永田雅啓
    • Journal Title

      埼玉大学紀要(教養学部) 第41巻・第1号

      Pages: 51-63

    • NAID

      110006183862

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] 資本財輸出大国としての中国の台頭(その2)-汎用的資本財の供給拠点へ-2005

    • Author(s)
      永田雅啓
    • Journal Title

      季刊 国際貿易と投資 No.61

      Pages: 119-138

    • NAID

      40006935652

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] 資本財輸出大国としての中国の台頭2005

    • Author(s)
      永田雅啓
    • Journal Title

      季刊 国際貿易と投資 No.60

      Pages: 19-31

    • NAID

      40006809951

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Changes in the Development of East Asian Countries -- from the Viewpoint of Capital Goods Trade with Japan --2005

    • Author(s)
      NAGATA, Masahiro
    • Journal Title

      Saitama University Review (Faculty of Liberal Arts) Vol.41,No.1

      Pages: 51-63

    • NAID

      110006183862

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] 日本資本財貿易から見た東アジアの発展形態2005

    • Author(s)
      永田雅啓
    • Journal Title

      埼玉大学紀要(教養学部) 第41巻・第1号

      Pages: 51-63

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 資本財輸出大国としての中国の台頭2005

    • Author(s)
      永田雅啓
    • Journal Title

      季刊国際貿易と投資 No.60

      Pages: 19-31

    • NAID

      40006809951

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 資本財輸出大国としての中国の台頭(その2) -汎用的資本財の供給拠点へ-2005

    • Author(s)
      永田雅啓
    • Journal Title

      季刊国際貿易と投資 No.61

      Pages: 119-138

    • NAID

      40006935652

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 通貨危機後のアジアの経済回復-メキシコ通貨危機との比較分析-2004

    • Author(s)
      永田雅啓
    • Journal Title

      埼玉大学紀要(教養学部) 第40巻・第2号

      Pages: 63-77

    • NAID

      110004620724

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary 2004 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Economic Recovery of the Asia after the Financial Crises -- Comparison with the Mexican Financial Crises --2004

    • Author(s)
      NAGATA, Masahiro
    • Journal Title

      Saitama University Review (Faculty of Liberal Arts) Vol.40,No.2

      Pages: 63-77

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] 目本の機械類貿易から見た東アジアの発展形態2004

    • Author(s)
      永田雅啓
    • Journal Title

      季刊 国際貿易と投資 No.57

      Pages: 119-140

    • Related Report
      2004 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 人民元は安いのか-実質実行為替レートによる検証-2003

    • Author(s)
      永田雅啓
    • Journal Title

      季刊 国際貿易と投資 No.54

      Pages: 103-115

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 永田雅啓: "人民元は安いのか-実質実行為替レートによる検証-"季刊 国際貿易と投資. No.54. 103-115 (2003)

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 永田雅啓: "通貨危機後のアジア経済-IMF政策勧告の再評価-"季刊 国際貿易と投資. No.53. 148-161 (2003)

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2003-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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