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Fertility Decline in Hokkaido -Design of System Dynamics Model for the Declining Regional Fertility

Research Project

Project/Area Number 15530335
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Sociology
Research InstitutionHokkaido Tokai University

Principal Investigator

HARA Toshihiko  Hokkaido Tokai University, School of International Cultural Relations, Professor, 国際文化学部, 教授 (00208654)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) HARA Toshihiko  Hokkaido Tokai University, School of International Cultural Relations, Professor (00208654)
Project Period (FY) 2003 – 2005
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2005)
Budget Amount *help
¥2,500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000)
Fiscal Year 2005: ¥700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000)
Fiscal Year 2004: ¥700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000)
Fiscal Year 2003: ¥1,100,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000)
KeywordsFertility Decline / Regional Demography / Hokkaido / Simulation / System Dynamic Model / Low Fertility / Urbanization / Policy Measures / シミュレーション
Research Abstract

The purpose of this research was to clarify the trends and determinants of fertility decline observed in Hokkaido and to design its system dynamic model including demographic, socio-cultural and economic factors.
The researchworks and the important findings were :
In 2003, using time-series and periodical data in Census, Vital statistics and other sources, we analyzed trends and demographic determinants of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and identified the demographic character of recent fertility decline in Hokkaido, compared with other prefectures in Japan. Factor analysis of TFR of Hokkaido showed the low marital fertility and the low proportion of married women cause the lower fertility level than the national standard. It is very unique among Japanese prefectures that both factors have almost same weight on low fertility.
In 2004, we analyzed the socio-economic determinants of the age-specific first marriage rates and the age-specific marital fertility rates, and identified the socio-econ … More omic character of recent fertility decline in Hokkaido. This is done by using multiple linear regression analysis of socio-economic cross section data found in Vital Statistics of Japan, Social Indicators by Prefecture of Statistics Bureau in Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications and in other sources. Hokkaido showed a relatively high proportion of university graduates among the male population and the concentration of the labor force in the service industry sector. These socio-economic characteristics account for Hokkaido's gap to Japanese standard fertility level.
In 2005, we developed the prototype of system dynamic model including demographic, socio-cultural and economic factors of fertility decline in Hokkaido. It was the cohort model of fertility and population dynamics in Sapporo, as the core of Hokkaido. This was done by using multiple linear time series regression analysis of the female marital fertility rates and the female first marriage rates with the proportion of high school graduates and the labor force in the service industry sector among the male population. We could successfully reproduce the fertility decline in Sapporo from 1965 to 2000. Less

Report

(4 results)
  • 2005 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 2004 Annual Research Report
  • 2003 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (14 results)

All 2006 2005 2004 Other

All Journal Article (13 results) Publications (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] 北海道における小子化-社会経済要因の分析2006

    • Author(s)
      原 俊彦
    • Journal Title

      北海道東海大学紀要人文社会科学系 18号(印刷中)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Socio-Economic Factors of Fertility Decline in Hokkaido2006

    • Author(s)
      HARA, Toshihiko
    • Journal Title

      Hokkaido Tokai University Bulletin in Humanities & Social Sciences 18(in printing)

    • NAID

      110004867593

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] 北海道における少子化ー社会経済要因の分析2006

    • Author(s)
      原 俊彦
    • Journal Title

      北海道東海大学紀要人文社会科学系 18号(印刷中)

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 北海道における小子化の人口学的特徴2005

    • Author(s)
      原 俊彦
    • Journal Title

      北海道東海大学紀要人文社会科学系 17号

      Pages: 39-62

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] 地球人口の将来-地域人口と地方分権のゆくえ2005

    • Author(s)
      原 俊彦
    • Journal Title

      人口問題基礎講座 資料 9号

      Pages: 56-74

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] テンポとカンタム-Ryder指標と簡易法の比較2005

    • Author(s)
      原 俊彦
    • Journal Title

      人口学研究 37

      Pages: 47-65

    • NAID

      110009825241

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report 2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] On the Demographic Character of Fertility Decline in Hokkaido2005

    • Author(s)
      HARA, Toshihiko
    • Journal Title

      Hokkaido Tokai University Bulletin in Humanities & Social Sciences 17

      Pages: 39-62

    • NAID

      110004497112

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] The Future of Community Populations and Communal Policies in Japan2005

    • Author(s)
      HARA Toshihiko
    • Journal Title

      The Materials of Basic Lectures on Population Problems 9

      Pages: 56-74

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Tempo and Quantum : comparison between Ryder Index and Simple Method2005

    • Author(s)
      HARA, Toshihiko
    • Journal Title

      Jinkogaku Kenkyu (The Journal of Population Studies) 37

      Pages: 47-65

    • NAID

      110009825241

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] 地域人口の将来-地域人口と地方分権のゆくえ2005

    • Author(s)
      原 俊彦
    • Journal Title

      人口問題基礎講座 資料 9号

      Pages: 56-74

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] デンドログラム上に現れた類似性に関する北海道東海大学原俊彦教授の見解2005

    • Author(s)
      原 俊彦
    • Journal Title

      社会経済及び社会保障分野における地域差についての統計的分析(みずほ情報総研株式会社)

      Pages: 8-9

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 北海道における少子化の人口学的特徴2005

    • Author(s)
      原 俊彦
    • Journal Title

      北海道東海大学紀要人文社会科学系 17

      Pages: 39-62

    • NAID

      110004497112

    • Related Report
      2004 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 地域人口の将来2004

    • Author(s)
      原 俊彦
    • Journal Title

      (財)人口問題研究会『第8回人口問題基礎講座 資料』 8

      Pages: 92-106

    • Related Report
      2004 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 原 俊彦: "地域人口の将来"第7回人口問題基礎講座 資料((財)人口問題研究会). 7. 1-17 (2003)

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2003-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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