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Measurement and Analysis of Price Index and Consumption Behavior Based on Point of Sale Data

Research Project

Project/Area Number 15H01945
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Economic policy
Research InstitutionHitotsubashi University

Principal Investigator

Abe Naohito  一橋大学, 経済研究所, 教授 (30323893)

Research Collaborator Inakura Noriko  
Ueno Yuko  
Tonogi Akiyuki  
Project Period (FY) 2015-04-01 – 2019-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
Budget Amount *help
¥43,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥33,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥10,080,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥10,530,000 (Direct Cost: ¥8,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,430,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥9,620,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,220,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥9,620,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,220,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥13,910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥10,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,210,000)
Keywords家計消費 / 物価 / インフレーション / 将来予測 / 合理的期待 / スキャナーデータ / インフレ期待 / 計測誤差 / 合理性 / POSデータ / 物価指数 / 家庭内在庫 / 家計内在庫 / 購買行動 / 消費者物価指数
Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study analyzed consumption and prices based on scanner data and investigated inflation expectation formation based on an original micro survey. We found that after the change in the consumption tax rate in 2014, young people decreased their nominal expenditures more than old, while young people faced higher price levels, which decreased their real expenditure. The difference between the old and young population can be explained by the differences in their purchasing behaviors in convenience stores. We also found that the inflation expectation by Japanese households is consistent with the rational expectation hypothesis with limited information. Our experiments conducted through websites revealed that by providing households with "useful" information, their inflation expectations are revised, as predicted by the information theory.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

2014年に行われた消費税率改定直後、日本の家計消費は大きく落ち込んだ。その落ち込み方や家計が購入する商品の物価は家計属性により異なっている。本研究により、家計消費の動きを分析する際には、どの業態で購入しているかが重要な要素となっており、平均単価の高いコンビニエンスストアで日々どの程度購入しているかを考察しないと、誤った解釈をしかねないことが判明した。また、日本家計のインフレ期待は粘着的であると広く議論されているが、適切な情報を与えることによりインフレ期待は瞬時に変化し、その変化のパターンは粘着的ではなく、むしろ合理的期待と整合的であることが本研究により明らかとなった。

Report

(5 results)
  • 2018 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2017 Annual Research Report
  • 2016 Annual Research Report
  • 2015 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (19 results)

All 2018 2017 2016 2015 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (2 results) Journal Article (6 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 3 results,  Open Access: 2 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 3 results) Presentation (7 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 4 results,  Invited: 1 results) Book (1 results) Funded Workshop (3 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Queensland(オーストラリア)

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Queensland(Australia)

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 余暇への時間・金銭投入に関する一考察2018

    • Author(s)
      阿部修人、稲倉典子、小原美紀
    • Journal Title

      経済研究

      Volume: 69巻4号 Pages: 289-313

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 余暇への時間・金銭投入に関する一考察2018

    • Author(s)
      阿部修人、稲倉典子、小原美紀
    • Journal Title

      RCESR Discussion Paper Series

      Volume: 18-3 Pages: 1-33

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Quantifying and Accounting for Quality Differences in Services in International Price Comparisons: A Bilateral Price Comparison between United States and Japan2018

    • Author(s)
      Naohito Abe, Kyoji Fukao, Kenta Ikeuchi, and Prasada Rao
    • Journal Title

      IER Discussion Paper Series A

      Volume: 671 Pages: 1-44

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] サーベイ調査におけるインフレ期待の不確実性の計測に関する一考察2017

    • Author(s)
      阿部修人・上野有子
    • Journal Title

      経済研究

      Volume: 68 Pages: 64-83

    • NAID

      120006551924

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Effects of the Entry and Exit of Products on Price Indexes2017

    • Author(s)
      Naohito Abe, Noriko Inakura, Akiyuki Tonogi
    • Journal Title

      RCESR Discussion Paper Series

      Volume: DP 1 7 - 2 Pages: 1-38

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] 消費税率改定時の家計購買行動2015

    • Author(s)
      阿部修人、稲倉典子
    • Journal Title

      経済研究

      Volume: 66 Pages: 321-336

    • NAID

      120006358876

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Presentation] Quantifying and Accounting for Quality Differences in Services in International Price Comparisons: A Bilateral Price Comparison between United States and Japan2018

    • Author(s)
      阿部修人
    • Organizer
      Washington DC Meeting on International comparisons
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Quantifying and Accounting for Quality Differences in Services in International Price Comparisons: A Bilateral Price Comparison between United States and Japan2018

    • Author(s)
      阿部修人
    • Organizer
      Fifty Years of International Comparison Program: Achievements and Moving Forward
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] ミクロの取引データからわかるマクロの需要と供給2017

    • Author(s)
      阿部修人
    • Organizer
      景気循環学会
    • Place of Presentation
      日本記者クラブ、東京都、千代田区
    • Year and Date
      2017-01-11
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The Mechanism of Inflation Expectation Formation among Consumers2017

    • Author(s)
      Naohito Abe
    • Organizer
      The 32nd European Economic Association Meeting
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] POSデータからみた生計費指数と物価指数2015

    • Author(s)
      阿部修人
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会
    • Place of Presentation
      東京都千代田区紀尾井町 上智大学
    • Year and Date
      2015-10-10
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] The Effects of New Goods and Product Turnover on Price Indexes2015

    • Author(s)
      阿部修人、外木暁幸
    • Organizer
      The 30th European Economic Association
    • Place of Presentation
      Mannheim, Germany
    • Year and Date
      2015-08-26
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The Effects of New Goods and Product Turnover on Price Indexes2015

    • Author(s)
      阿部修人、外木暁幸
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会
    • Place of Presentation
      新潟県新潟市西区五十嵐 新潟大学
    • Year and Date
      2015-05-24
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] 現代経済学の潮流20162016

    • Author(s)
      阿部修人・稲倉典子・遠田敏生・外木暁幸
    • Total Pages
      264
    • Publisher
      東洋経済新報社
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Funded Workshop] Hitotsubashi Workshop on Productivity, Real Estate, and Prices2018

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Funded Workshop] Hitotsubashi Workshop on Productivity, Real Estate, and Prices2017

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Funded Workshop] Hitotsubashi-RIETI International Workshop on Real Estate Market, Productivity, and Prices2016

    • Place of Presentation
      独立行政法人経済産業研究所、東京都、千代田区
    • Year and Date
      2016-10-13
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2015-04-16   Modified: 2020-03-30  

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