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A simulation-based approach for the quantitative risk management

Research Project

Project/Area Number 15H02973
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Social systems engineering/Safety system
Research InstitutionKeio University

Principal Investigator

imai junichi  慶應義塾大学, 理工学部(矢上), 教授 (10293078)

Project Period (FY) 2015-04-01 – 2020-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2020)
Budget Amount *help
¥17,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥13,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,960,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥3,380,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥780,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥3,510,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥810,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥3,250,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥750,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥3,380,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥780,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥3,640,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥840,000)
Keywords準モンテカルロ法 / 近似動的計画法 / 金融工学 / リスク管理 / リアルオプション / ファイナンス
Outline of Final Research Achievements

We proposed ADPRL (Approximate Dynamic Programming & Reinforcement Learning) as a distinct approach to numerical computation that enables quantitative analysis that is practically useful for financial problems and management decision-making problems where various uncertainties exist that cannot be analyzed analytically.
We thoroughly studied three factors: modeling, simulation, and numerical optimization, and have constructed an integrated framework.
Next, based on ADPRL, we analyzed various applications under high -dimensionality, ambiguity and/or model uncertainty for actual management to analyze both risk and returns and to make the optimal decisions.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

ファイナンス研究の世界は,金融モデルの数学的側面に焦点を絞る分野,定性的なケースを分析して政策提言を試みる分野,ヒストリカルデータを用いて実証分析に焦点を絞る分野など,多様な分野の研究者が混在する複合的な分野である.このような背景の中,本研究成果の学術的意義は,工学という観点から定量的な分析を可能とする実践的・具体的手法を開発したことである.すなわち,状態方程式や存在定理の導出を目指すのではなく,現実のビジネスでも利用できる効率的な定量分析手法を具体的に明示し,プログラムとして実装することで研究成果は金融・経営分野への利用が可能である.

Report

(6 results)
  • 2020 Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2019 Annual Research Report
  • 2018 Annual Research Report
  • 2017 Annual Research Report
  • 2016 Annual Research Report
  • 2015 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (41 results)

All 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (2 results) Journal Article (7 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 7 results,  Open Access: 4 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 1 results) Presentation (29 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 11 results,  Invited: 2 results) Remarks (3 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Waterloo(Canada)

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Waterloo(Canada)

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] User-based Valuation of Digital Subscription Business Models2020

    • Author(s)
      Schneider Robin、Imai Junichi
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Real Options and Strategy

      Volume: 8 Issue: 0 Pages: 1-26

    • DOI

      10.12949/ijros.8.1

    • NAID

      130007958714

    • ISSN
      2186-4667
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] マーク付き多次元Hawkes過程を用いた高頻度注文板データの分析2020

    • Author(s)
      佐藤 正崇、今井 潤一
    • Journal Title

      JAFEE Journal

      Volume: 18 Issue: 0 Pages: 63-88

    • DOI

      10.32212/jafee.18.0_63

    • NAID

      130007843617

    • ISSN
      2434-4702
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Valuing Investments in Digital Transformation of Business Models2019

    • Author(s)
      Schneider Robin、Imai Junichi
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Real Options and Strategy

      Volume: 7 Issue: 0 Pages: 1-26

    • DOI

      10.12949/ijros.7.1

    • NAID

      130007769905

    • ISSN
      2186-4667
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] A Study on a Membrane Ceilings Business under Ambiguity2018

    • Author(s)
      Fukui Yuta、Imai Junichi
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Real Options and Strategy

      Volume: 6 Issue: 0 Pages: 13-44

    • DOI

      10.12949/ijros.6.13

    • NAID

      130007536357

    • ISSN
      2186-4667
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] An Empirical Analysis of the Dependence Structure of International Equity and Bond Markets Using Regime-switching Copula Model2018

    • Author(s)
      Y. Otani and J. Imai
    • Journal Title

      IAENG International Journal of Applied Mathematics

      Volume: 48 Pages: 191-205

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] An empirical analysis of the dependence structure of international equity and bond markets using regime-switching copula model2018

    • Author(s)
      Yuko Otani and Junichi Imai
    • Journal Title

      IAENG International Journal of Applied Mathematics

      Volume: -

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Optimal Investment Timing under A Mean-reverting Process: A Real Options Approach2015

    • Author(s)
      福井勇太,今井潤一
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Real Options and Strategy

      Volume: 7 Issue: 2 Pages: 37-57

    • DOI

      10.12949/realopn.7.37

    • NAID

      130005117645

    • ISSN
      1881-5774, 1884-1635
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Presentation] A Numerical Method for Hedging Bermudan Options under Model Uncertainty2020

    • Author(s)
      今井潤一
    • Organizer
      第53回 2020年度夏季JAFEE大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] User-based Valuation of Digital Business Models2019

    • Author(s)
      Robin Schneider,今井潤一
    • Organizer
      日本リアルオプション学会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Estimating Parameters for Technology Investments: An Application to 3D Printing Technologies2019

    • Author(s)
      Robin Schneider,平川仁志,細田昴,金熔,今井潤一
    • Organizer
      日本リアルオプション学会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Solving Optimal Investment Decisions under Ambiguity: ADPRL Approach2019

    • Author(s)
      今井潤一
    • Organizer
      日本リアルオプション学会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Innovation in Digital Economy: Digital Transformation of Business Models2019

    • Author(s)
      Robin Schneider and Junichi Imai
    • Organizer
      Managerial Workshop on INNOVATION & PUBLIC POLICY
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Valuing Investments in Digital Business Transformation2018

    • Author(s)
      R. Schneider and J. Imai
    • Organizer
      The 22nd Annual International Real Options Conference
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] リアルオプション分析におけるソフトウェアの活用2018

    • Author(s)
      今井潤一
    • Organizer
      日本リアルオプション学会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Optimal Investment under Levy Ambiguity2017

    • Author(s)
      Junichi Imai, Motoh, Tsujimura
    • Organizer
      21st Annual International Real Options Conference
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Valuing the Acquisition of a New Business under Ambiguity: A Case Study in Japan2017

    • Author(s)
      Yuta Fukui, Junichi Imai
    • Organizer
      21st Annual International Real Options Conference
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Reference-dependent Expected Shortfall: A new measure without perceiving tail events2017

    • Author(s)
      Sumito Onozaki, Junichi Imai
    • Organizer
      International Federation of Operational Reserch Societies (IFORS) 2017
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Reference-dependent Expected Shortfall: a new descriptive risk measure consistent with Prospect theory2017

    • Author(s)
      Sumito Onozaki, Junichi Imai
    • Organizer
      A seminar in Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Waterloo
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] フィナンシャル・エンジニアリングにおける準モンテカルロ法の効率化2017

    • Author(s)
      今井潤一
    • Organizer
      日本OR学会中部支部シンポジウム
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] A real option case under ambiguity2017

    • Author(s)
      今井潤一, 福井勇太
    • Organizer
      日本リアルオプション学会 2017研究大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 意思決定理論との整合性を考慮した記述的リスク尺度の提案2017

    • Author(s)
      小野崎純人,今井潤一
    • Organizer
      日本リアルオプション学会 2017研究大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] プロスペクト確率優越に整合的なリスク尺度2017

    • Author(s)
      小野崎純人, 今井潤一
    • Organizer
      日本保険・年金リスク学会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Reference-dependent Expected Shortfall: new descriptive risk measures consistent with Prospect theory2017

    • Author(s)
      Sumito Onozaki, Junichi Imai
    • Organizer
      Quantitative Methods in Finance 2017 (QMF2017)
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] プロスペクト確率優越に整合的なリスク尺度 Truncated Expected Shortfall の提案2017

    • Author(s)
      小野崎純人,今井潤一
    • Organizer
      日本オペレーションズ・リサーチ学会
    • Place of Presentation
      沖縄県市町村自治会館(沖縄県・那覇市)
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] マーケットファクターがCDSスプレッドの変動の分布に与える影響の分析2017

    • Author(s)
      池田浩司,今井潤一
    • Organizer
      日本オペレーションズ・リサーチ学会
    • Place of Presentation
      沖縄県市町村自治会館(沖縄県・那覇市)
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Optimal Investment under Levy Ambiguity2017

    • Author(s)
      今井潤一,辻村元男
    • Organizer
      日本オペレーションズ・リサーチ学会
    • Place of Presentation
      沖縄県市町村自治会館(沖縄県・那覇市)
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 膜天井事業の経済性分析と最適な意思決定: リアルオプションアプローチを用いた新規ビジネスに関するケーススタディ2017

    • Author(s)
      福井勇太,今井潤一
    • Organizer
      日本オペレーションズ・リサーチ学会
    • Place of Presentation
      沖縄県市町村自治会館(沖縄県・那覇市)
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 近似動的計画法を用いたマーケットインパクト影響下での最適執行戦略の導出2017

    • Author(s)
      新谷一平,今井潤一
    • Organizer
      日本オペレーションズ・リサーチ学会
    • Place of Presentation
      沖縄県市町村自治会館(沖縄県・那覇市)
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Enhancement of QMC: severity and tail dimension2016

    • Author(s)
      Junichi Imai
    • Organizer
      Keio Symposium on Risk Assessment
    • Place of Presentation
      慶應義塾大学(神奈川県・横浜市)
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Assessing Capital Investment Strategy with Convex Adjustment Cost under Ambiguity2016

    • Author(s)
      Motoh Tsujimura and Junichi Imai
    • Organizer
      日本オペレーションズ・リサーチ学会
    • Place of Presentation
      山形大学(山形県・山形市)
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Assessing Capital Investment Strategy with Convex Adjustment Cost under Ambiguity2016

    • Author(s)
      Motoh Tsujimura and Junichi Imai
    • Organizer
      日本リアルオプション学会
    • Place of Presentation
      中央大学(東京都・文京区)
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Real Option: Back to Origin and Heading for New frontier2016

    • Author(s)
      Junichi Imai
    • Organizer
      日本リアルオプション学会
    • Place of Presentation
      中央大学(東京都・文京区)
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] A Review of Developing Efficient Quasi-Monte Carlo Method2016

    • Author(s)
      Junichi Imai
    • Organizer
      Research seminar in department of Statistics and Actuarial Science
    • Place of Presentation
      University of Waterloo(Canada)
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] An Efficient Numerical Procedure for Financial Engineering Using Quasi-Monte Carlo Method2015

    • Author(s)
      Junichi Imai
    • Organizer
      計量経済学ワークショップ
    • Place of Presentation
      慶應義塾大学経済研究所(東京都・港区)
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Hedging Financial Derivatives in Incomplete Market Using an Approximate Dynamic Programming2015

    • Author(s)
      Junichi Imai
    • Organizer
      Columbia-JAFEE Conference 2015
    • Place of Presentation
      Columbia University(U.S.A.)
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Archimedean Copulas for Random Sums2015

    • Author(s)
      Yuya Suzuki, Junichi Imai
    • Organizer
      The Quantitative Methods in Finance 2015 Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Sydney (Australia)
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Remarks]

    • URL

      http://lab.ae.keio.ac.jp/~imai_lab/research.html

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks]

    • URL

      http://www.ae.keio.ac.jp/lab/soc/imai/JIMAI/research.html

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] Keio Junichi Imai Lab

    • URL

      http://www.ae.keio.ac.jp/lab/soc/imai/JIMAI/research.html

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report 2015 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2015-04-16   Modified: 2022-11-04  

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