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A study of statistical methods in quantitative risk management, focusing on copulas and risk measures

Research Project

Project/Area Number 15H03337
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Economic statistics
Research InstitutionSeijo University

Principal Investigator

Tsukahara Hideatsu  成城大学, 経済学部, 教授 (10282550)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 川崎 能典  統計数理研究所, モデリング研究系, 教授 (70249910)
Research Collaborator SEGERS Johan  
MCNEIL Alex J.  
EMBRECHTYS Paul  
MITTNIK Stefan  
Project Period (FY) 2015-04-01 – 2018-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2017)
Budget Amount *help
¥9,425,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,250,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,175,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥2,730,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥630,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥3,250,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥750,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥3,445,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,650,000、Indirect Cost: ¥795,000)
Keywords定量的リスク管理 / リスク計測手法 / リスク尺度 / 接合関数 / コピュラ / ボラティリティ / リスク因子の探索 / 非対称分布のモデリング / リスク管理 / リスク計測 / 計量ファイナンス / 経済統計学 / 金融工学
Outline of Final Research Achievements

Financial institutions are faced with various kinds of financial risk by holding their positions. Quantitative risk management deals with how to identify, evaluate, measure and manage those risks. We discussed the statistical properties that desirable risk measures should possess, and studied a broad class of risk measures called distortion risk measures focusing on their statistical estimation and backtesting. Copulas are an important tool for modeling dependence between several financial risks, and we introduced and analyzed new smoothed estimates of copulas. Resampling methods based on them are also investigated.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2017 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2016 Annual Research Report
  • 2015 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (33 results)

All 2018 2017 2016 2015

All Journal Article (8 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 3 results,  Peer Reviewed: 6 results,  Open Access: 4 results) Presentation (23 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 21 results,  Invited: 7 results) Book (1 results) Funded Workshop (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] The empirical beta copula2017

    • Author(s)
      Segers Johan、Sibuya Masaaki、Tsukahara Hideatsu
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Multivariate Analysis

      Volume: 155 Pages: 35-51

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jmva.2016.11.010

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report 2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Forecasting Financial Market Volatility Using a Dynamic Topic Model2017

    • Author(s)
      Morimoto Takayuki、Kawasaki Yoshinori
    • Journal Title

      Asia-Pacific Financial Markets

      Volume: 24 Issue: 3 Pages: 149-167

    • DOI

      10.1007/s10690-017-9228-z

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 経験類似度に基づくボラティリティ予測2017

    • Author(s)
      森本孝之,川崎能典
    • Journal Title

      統計数理

      Volume: 65 Pages: 155-180

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 整数値自己回帰モデルの最近の発展2017

    • Author(s)
      中嶋雅彦,酒折文武,川崎能典
    • Journal Title

      統計数理

      Volume: 65 Pages: 323-339

    • NAID

      120006727375

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Volatility forecasting with empirical similarity: Japanese stock market case2017

    • Author(s)
      Morimoto, T. and Kawasaki, Y.
    • Journal Title

      JSM Proceedings, Business and Economics Statistics Section

      Volume: - Pages: 2483-2510

    • NAID

      120006727364

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] VARモデルによる因果関係の推論-内閣支持率と株価を例に2017

    • Author(s)
      川崎能典
    • Journal Title

      岩波データサイエンス刊行委員会編『岩波データサイエンスVol. 6』(図書所収論文)

      Volume: - Pages: 68-81

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Sparse predictive modeling for bank telemarketing success using smooth-threshold estimating equations2015

    • Author(s)
      Kawasaki, Y., Ueki, M.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Japanese Society of Computational Statistics

      Volume: 28 Issue: 1 Pages: 53-66

    • DOI

      10.5183/jjscs.1502003_217

    • NAID

      130005434011

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Change in trading rules and its impact on the distributional properties of commodity futures2015

    • Author(s)
      Kawasaki, Y., Aoki, Y.
    • Journal Title

      JSM Proceedings

      Volume: なし Pages: 1604-1616

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Backtesting in Finance and Prequential Analysis2018

    • Author(s)
      塚原英敦
    • Organizer
      DSSRセミナー,サービス・データ科学研究センター
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Backtesting and Prequential Analysis2017

    • Author(s)
      Hideatsu Tsukahara
    • Organizer
      8th CEQURA Conference on Advances in Financial and Insurance Risk Management
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Backtesting in Finance and Prequential Analysis2017

    • Author(s)
      Hideatsu Tsukahara
    • Organizer
      10th International Conference of the ERCIM WG on CMStatistics 2017
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Scale mixture of Skewed Kalman filter and its application2017

    • Author(s)
      Yoshinori Kawasaki
    • Organizer
      ISI 61st World Statistics Congress
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Volatility forecasting with empirical similarity: Japanese stock market case2017

    • Author(s)
      Kawasaki, Y. and Morimoto, T
    • Organizer
      8th CEQURA Conference on Advances in Financial and Insurance Risk Management
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 経験類似度に基づくボラティリティの推定と予測2017

    • Author(s)
      森本孝之,川崎能典
    • Organizer
      2017年度統計関連学会連合大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The Empirical Beta Copula2016

    • Author(s)
      Hideatsu Tsukahara
    • Organizer
      8th International Conference on CFE-CMStatistics 2016
    • Place of Presentation
      セビリア,スペイン
    • Year and Date
      2016-12-09
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Some Applications of Distortion Risk Measures2016

    • Author(s)
      Hideatsu Tsukahara
    • Organizer
      TMU Workshop on Financial Mathematics and Statistics
    • Place of Presentation
      首都大学東京 秋葉原キャンパス
    • Year and Date
      2016-11-29
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] The Empirical Beta Copula2016

    • Author(s)
      Hideatsu Tsukahara
    • Organizer
      International Conference on Statistical Distributions and Applications (ICOSDA) 2016
    • Place of Presentation
      ナイアガラ・フォールズ,カナダ
    • Year and Date
      2016-10-14
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Risk analysis of asymmetric price changes in Japanese commodity futures2016

    • Author(s)
      Kawasaki, Y. and Aoki, Y.
    • Organizer
      CEQURA Conference 2016 on Advances in Financial and Insurance Risk Management
    • Place of Presentation
      ミュンヘン,ドイツ
    • Year and Date
      2016-09-26
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The Empirical Beta Copula2016

    • Author(s)
      Hideatsu Tsukahara
    • Organizer
      Salzburg Workshop on Dependence Models & Copulas
    • Place of Presentation
      ザルツブルク,オーストリア
    • Year and Date
      2016-09-19
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Evaluating Capital Allocation with Distortion Risk Measures2016

    • Author(s)
      Hideatsu Tsukahara
    • Organizer
      1st Seoul-Tokyo-Stanford workshop on "Financial Statistics and Risk Management"
    • Place of Presentation
      ソウル,韓国
    • Year and Date
      2016-04-01
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Asymmetric modeling of price change in commodity futures2016

    • Author(s)
      Kawasaki, Y. and Aoki, Y.
    • Organizer
      1st Seoul-Tokyo-Stanford workshop on "Financial Statistics and Risk Management"
    • Place of Presentation
      ソウル,韓国
    • Year and Date
      2016-04-01
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Volatility forecasting with empirical similarity: Japanese stock market case2016

    • Author(s)
      Morimoto, T. and Kawasaki, Y
    • Organizer
      The 36th International Symposium on Forecasting
    • Place of Presentation
      サンタンデール,スペイン
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Intraday periodicity of high frequent commodity futures data2016

    • Author(s)
      Kawasaki, Y. and Yoshida, Y.
    • Organizer
      The 3rd ISM International Statistical Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      クアラルンプール,マレーシア
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The Empirical Beta Copula2016

    • Author(s)
      Hideatsu Tsukahara
    • Organizer
      4th Symposium on ``Financial Engineering and ERM''
    • Place of Presentation
      一橋大学
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] The Empirical Beta Copula2015

    • Author(s)
      Hideatsu Tsukahara
    • Organizer
      8th International Conference on CFE-CMStatistics 2015
    • Place of Presentation
      ロンドン,英国
    • Year and Date
      2015-12-12
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Sparse predictive modeling for bank telemarketing success using smooth-threshold estimating equations2015

    • Author(s)
      Kawasaki, Y. and Ueki, M.
    • Organizer
      8th International Conference of the ERCIM WG on Computational and Methodological Statistics (CMStatistics 2015)
    • Place of Presentation
      ロンドン,英国
    • Year and Date
      2015-12-12
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Evaluating capital allocation with distortion risk measures2015

    • Author(s)
      Hideatsu Tsukahara
    • Organizer
      6th CEQURA Conference on Advances in Financial and Insurance Risk Management
    • Place of Presentation
      ミュンヘン,ドイツ
    • Year and Date
      2015-10-01
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Change in trading rules and its impact on the distributional properties of commodity futures2015

    • Author(s)
      Kawasaki, Y. and Aoki, Y.
    • Organizer
      Joint Statistical Meeting 2015
    • Place of Presentation
      シアトル,米国
    • Year and Date
      2015-08-08
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The Empirical Beta Copula2015

    • Author(s)
      Hideatsu Tsukahara
    • Organizer
      Statistical Computing Asia 2015
    • Place of Presentation
      台北,台湾
    • Year and Date
      2015-07-01
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Variable selection and grouping by smooth-threshold estimating equations2015

    • Author(s)
      Yoshinori Kawasaki
    • Organizer
      Statistical Computing Asia 2015
    • Place of Presentation
      台北,台湾
    • Year and Date
      2015-07-01
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Scale mixture of skewed Kalman filter and its application2015

    • Author(s)
      Kawasaki, Y. and Kurisu, D.
    • Organizer
      Workshop on Complex Systems Modeling and Estimation Challenges in Big Data 2015 (CSM2015)
    • Place of Presentation
      統計数理研究所
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Book] 時系列分析ハンドブック2016

    • Author(s)
      T. Subbarao, S. Subbarao, C. R. Rao著/北川源四郎,田中勝人,川崎能典監訳
    • Total Pages
      788
    • Publisher
      朝倉書店
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Funded Workshop] International Symposium on Dependence and Copulas 20152015

    • Place of Presentation
      統計数理研究所
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2015-04-16   Modified: 2019-03-29  

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