Reproduction and attribution of decadal accelerations and slowdowns of surface global warming in the past 150 years with multi-climate models
| Project/Area Number |
15H05466
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (A)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Research Field |
Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
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| Research Institution | The University of Tokyo |
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Principal Investigator |
Kosaka Yu 東京大学, 先端科学技術研究センター, 准教授 (90746398)
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| Research Collaborator |
XIE Shang-Ping カリフォルニア大学サンディエゴ校, スクリプス海洋研究所, 教授
WATANABE Masahiro 東京大学, 大気海洋研究所, 教授
IMADA Yukiko 気象庁, 気象研究所, 主任研究官
DESER Clara 米国立大気研究センター, 上級研究員
JOHNSON Nathaniel C. 米国地球流体力学研究所, 研究員
YANG Yun 北京師範大学, 研究員
SILER Nicholas カリフォルニア大学サンディエゴ校, スクリプス海洋研究所, 研究員
WANG Chuan-Yang 中国海洋大学, 大学院生
ZHANG Yu 中国海洋大学, 大学院生
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| Project Period (FY) |
2015-04-01 – 2018-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2017)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥24,050,000 (Direct Cost: ¥18,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥5,550,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥5,980,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,380,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥8,970,000 (Direct Cost: ¥6,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,070,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥9,100,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,100,000)
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| Keywords | 地球温暖化の停滞 / 熱帯大気海洋結合変動 / 気候内部変動 / 遠隔影響 / 全球平均気温 / 地球温暖化の加減速 / 気候変動 / 地球温暖化 / ハイエイタス / 熱帯太平洋十年規模変動 / エルニーニョ・南方振動 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
Global-mean surface temperature increase since the late 19th century is accompanied by remarkable year-to-year and decadal fluctuations, forming a global-warming “staircase”. Through pacemaker experiments with global climate models in which tropical Pacific surface temperature variability is forced to follow observed evolution, together with other model simulations, this study performs attribution of decadal accelerations and slowdowns of surface global warming and examines associated variations of regional climate and global energy budget. It is found that ocean-atmosphere coupled variability inherent to the tropical Pacific has affected timing of the staircase-like surface global warming. The study further proposes a revised view on global energy budget and mechanisms for remote climate impacts associated with the tropical Pacific variability. Modes of climate variability important for occurrence of extreme heat and cold events in the Northern Hemisphere lands are also identified.
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Report
(4 results)
Research Products
(54 results)
