Dynamic Modeling of Consumer Purchase Behavior: Based on Web Crawling Data

• Project/Area Number: 15H06747
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Research Field: Commerce
• Research Institution: Toyo University (2016); Kansai University (2015)
• Principal Investigator: Li Zhen 東洋大学, 経営学部, 講師 (30759923)
• Research Collaborator: ZHANG Jie The University of Maryland, Robert H. Smith School of Business, Professor ; MA Yan 神戸大学, 経営学部, 准教授 ; HUANG Lin 神戸大学, 経営学研究科, 教授 ; YADA Katsutoshi 関西大学, 商学部, 教授
• Project Period (FY): 2015-08-28 – 2017-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2016)
• Budget Amount: ¥2,340,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥540,000); Fiscal Year 2016: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000); Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
• Keywords: 消費者購買行動 / Web Crawling技術 / オンライン市場 / 顧客レビュー / 消費の外部性 / 顧客レビュー情報 / 商学 / 消費者行動分析 / 動的モデリング / オンラインショッピング / Web Crawling / Web Crawlingデータ / 行動パス

Outline of Final Research Achievements

There is much evidence that customer reviews are important to merchants' sales. However, little is deeply discussed about how much the online reviews affect sales, and the validity of the influence also lacks supports of empirical studies. This study posits that sales effects of customer reviews are different by market structure.

We propose a Bayesian statistical model to study how customer reviews affect sales and the difference in its influence between two types of merchants, market-place and self-conducted stores. The data in this study are retrieved by using Web Crawling technology. The findings suggest that (1) sales effects of review volume will be attenuates by the information of sales outcomes in previous period, (2) compared with self-conducted stores, the volume of customer reviews seem more effective on sales for merchants in market-place, and (3) the effects of review valence on sales are also somewhat stronger for market-place stores than it for self-conducted stores.

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Consumer Online Purchase Intention and Product Class (2017)
  • Author(s): Zhen Li
  • Journal Title: Journal of Business Administraion Volume: 89 Pages: 119-130
  • Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Presentation] Does the Existence of Private-Label Brands Really Impede National Brands Sales? Empirical Evidence Based on POS Data (2016)
  • Author(s): Zhen Li
  • Organizer: 2016 International Conference of Asian Marketing Associations
  • Place of Presentation: Guanghua School of Management, PKU, Beijing, China
  • Year and Date: 2016-10-21
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Does Increasing Volume of Online Reviews Really Help Sales? An In-depth Analysis Based on Web Crawling Data (2016)
  • Author(s): Zhen Li
  • Organizer: 38th ISMS Marketing Science Conference
  • Place of Presentation: Shanghai International Convention Center, Shanghai, China.
  • Year and Date: 2016-06-16
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Does Increasing Volume of Online Reviews Really Help Sales? An In-depth Analysis Based on Web Crawling Data (2016)
  • Author(s): Zhen Li
  • Organizer: 38th ISMS Marketing Science Conference
  • Place of Presentation: Shanghai International Convention Center, Shanghai, China
  • Year and Date: 2016-06-16
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] A Study on the Simultaneous Relationship between Sales Volume and Customer Reviews in China's B2C Online Markets (2015)
  • Author(s): Zhen Li
  • Organizer: 2015 International Conference of Asian Marketing Associations
  • Place of Presentation: Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan
  • Year and Date: 2015-10-30
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Funded Workshop] International Workshop on Marketing Science (KAKEN) (2017)
  • Place of Presentation: 1407 Room, Toyo University
  • Year and Date: 2017-02-23